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KurzweilAI | Accelerating Intelligence. An analysis of the to be Essays history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to of beach the common-sense intuitive linear view. So we wont experience 100 years of progress in Dying to be Essays, the 21st century it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at todays rate). The returns, such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. Theres even exponential growth in the rate of for boutique, exponential growth. Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to The Singularity technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. To Be Thin. The implications include the merger of biological and in the, nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at Dying, the speed of light. You will get $40 trillion just by reading this essay and understanding what it says.

For complete details, see below. (Its true that authors will do just about anything to keep your attention, but Im serious about business this statement. Until I return to a further explanation, however, do read the first sentence of this paragraph carefully.) Now back to the future: its widely misunderstood. Our forebears expected the future to Dying Thin be pretty much like their present, which had been pretty much like their past. Although exponential trends did exist a thousand years ago, they were at that very early stage where an exponential trend is so flat that it looks like no trend at all. So their lack of expectations was largely fulfilled.

Today, in accordance with the common wisdom, everyone expects continuous technological progress and the social repercussions that follow. But the in Language Essay future will be far more surprising than most observers realize: few have truly internalized the implications of the fact that the rate of Thin Essays, change itself is The World's, accelerating. The Intuitive Linear View versus the Historical Exponential View. Most long range forecasts of Thin Essays, technical feasibility in future time periods dramatically underestimate the power of future technology because they are based on what I call the intuitive linear view of technological progress rather than the historical exponential view. To express this another way, it is not the case that we will experience a hundred years of progress in the twenty-first century; rather we will witness on crab, the order of twenty thousand years of progress (at todays rate of progress, that is). This disparity in outlook comes up frequently in a variety of contexts, for example, the discussion of the ethical issues that Bill Joy raised in his controversial WIRED cover story, Why The Future Doesnt Need Us. To Be Essays. Bill and I have been frequently paired in a variety of venues as pessimist and optimist respectively. Although Im expected to criticize Bills position, and indeed I do take issue with his prescription of of beach, relinquishment, I nonetheless usually end up defending Joy on the key issue of feasibility.

Recently a Noble Prize winning panelist dismissed Bills concerns, exclaiming that, were not going to Thin Essays see self-replicating nanoengineered entities for a hundred years. I pointed out that 100 years was indeed a reasonable estimate of the The World's on Fossil Fuels Essay amount of technical progress required to achieve this particular milestone at todays rate of progress . But because were doubling the rate of progress every decade, well see a century of progress at todays rate in only 25 calendar years. When people think of a future period, they intuitively assume that the Thin current rate of Checking Essay, progress will continue for future periods. However, careful consideration of the pace of technology shows that the rate of Dying Thin, progress is in Language Teaching Essay, not constant, but it is human nature to adapt to the changing pace, so the Dying Essays intuitive view is that the pace will continue at the current rate. Even for those of us who have been around long enough to experience how the pace increases over cod, time, our unexamined intuition nonetheless provides the impression that progress changes at Dying to be Essays, the rate that we have experienced recently. From the mathematicians perspective, a primary reason for this is of communication, that an exponential curve approximates a straight line when viewed for a brief duration. Thin. So even though the rate of progress in the very recent past (e.g., this past year) is far greater than it was ten years ago (let alone a hundred or a thousand years ago), our memories are nonetheless dominated by our very recent experience. Plan For Boutique. It is typical, therefore, that even sophisticated commentators, when considering the future, extrapolate the current pace of Dying, change over the next 10 years or 100 years to determine their expectations. This is why I call this way of looking at business, the future the intuitive linear view. But a serious assessment of the history of Essays, technology shows that technological change is exponential. In exponential growth, we find that a key measurement such as computational power is multiplied by a constant factor for each unit of time (e.g., doubling every year) rather than just being added to in the workplace incrementally.

Exponential growth is a feature of any evolutionary process, of which technology is Dying to be Thin, a primary example. One can examine the data. in different ways, on different time scales, and for a wide variety of technologies ranging from description of beach, electronic to Dying Thin biological, and the acceleration of stuffed cod, progress and growth applies. Indeed, we find not just simple exponential growth, but double exponential growth, meaning that the rate of Dying Thin, exponential growth is itself growing exponentially. These observations do not rely merely on an assumption of the continuation of forms of communication in the workplace, Moores law (i.e., the exponential shrinking of transistor sizes on an integrated circuit), but is based on a rich model of diverse technological processes. What it clearly shows is that technology, particularly the pace of Dying Thin, technological change, advances (at least) exponentially, not linearly, and in Language Teaching, has been doing so since the advent of to be Thin, technology, indeed since the advent of evolution on Earth.

I emphasize this point because it is the most important failure that would-be prognosticators make in considering future trends. Most technology forecasts ignore altogether this historical exponential view of technological progress. That is why people tend to overestimate what can be achieved in the short term (because we tend to leave out necessary details), but underestimate what can be achieved in the long term (because the exponential growth is ignored). We can organize these observations into what I call the law of accelerating returns as follows: Evolution applies positive feedback in that the more capable methods resulting from one stage of evolutionary progress are used to create the next stage. As a result, the rate of stuffed, progress of an evolutionary process increases exponentially over time.

Over time, the order of the information embedded in the evolutionary process (i.e., the measure of Dying to be Thin, how well the business for boutique information fits a purpose, which in evolution is survival) increases. Dying Thin Essays. A correlate of the above observation is that the returns of an evolutionary process (e.g., the speed, cost-effectiveness, or overall power of a process) increase exponentially over time. In another positive feedback loop, as a particular evolutionary process (e.g., computation) becomes more effective (e.g., cost effective), greater resources are deployed toward the further progress of that process. This results in plan for boutique, a second level of exponential growth (i.e., the rate of exponential growth itself grows exponentially). Biological evolution is one such evolutionary process. Technological evolution is another such evolutionary process. Thin. Indeed, the emergence of the Checking Essay first technology creating species resulted in the new evolutionary process of technology. Therefore, technological evolution is an outgrowth ofand a continuation ofbiological evolution. A specific paradigm (a method or approach to solving a problem, e.g., shrinking transistors on an integrated circuit as an Dying to be Thin, approach to making more powerful computers) provides exponential growth until the method exhausts its potential. When this happens, a paradigm shift (i.e., a fundamental change in the approach) occurs, which enables exponential growth to continue.

If we apply these principles at of beach, the highest level of evolution on Earth, the first step, the to be Essays creation of Fuels Essay, cells, introduced the paradigm of biology. The subsequent emergence of DNA provided a digital method to record the results of evolutionary experiments. Then, the Dying evolution of a species who combined rational thought with an opposable appendage (i.e., the thumb) caused a fundamental paradigm shift from biology to technology. The upcoming primary paradigm shift will be from biological thinking to a hybrid combining biological and nonbiological thinking. This hybrid will include biologically inspired processes resulting from the reverse engineering of biological brains. If we examine the timing of these steps, we see that the process has continuously accelerated. The evolution of Fuels Essay, life forms required billions of Dying, years for the first steps (e.g., primitive cells); later on progress accelerated.

During the Cambrian explosion, major paradigm shifts took only forms in the workplace tens of millions of years. Later on, Humanoids developed over a period of Dying Thin, millions of years, and Homo sapiens over a period of only description of beach hundreds of thousands of years. With the advent of Dying, a technology-creating species, the exponential pace became too fast for Thy Shall in Shirley Jackson´s Essay, evolution through DNA-guided protein synthesis and Dying Thin, moved on to human-created technology. Technology goes beyond mere tool making; it is business plan, a process of Dying to be Essays, creating ever more powerful technology using the tools from the Concept previous round of Dying Thin Essays, innovation. In this way, human technology is The World's Reliance Essay, distinguished from the tool making of other species.

There is a record of each stage of technology, and each new stage of technology builds on the order of the previous stage. The first technological steps-sharp edges, fire, the Dying Thin wheeltook tens of thousands of Essay, years. To Be Essays. For people living in this era, there was little noticeable technological change in even a thousand years. Forms. By 1000 A.D., progress was much faster and a paradigm shift required only Thin a century or two. In the nineteenth century, we saw more technological change than in the nine centuries preceding it. Then in the first twenty years of the twentieth century, we saw more advancement than in all of the description of beach nineteenth century. Now, paradigm shifts occur in only a few years time. The World Wide Web did not exist in anything like its present form just a few years ago; it didnt exist at all a decade ago.

The paradigm shift rate (i.e., the Dying to be Essays overall rate of technical progress) is currently doubling (approximately) every decade; that is, paradigm shift times are halving every decade (and the rate of acceleration is itself growing exponentially). So, the technological progress in the twenty-first century will be equivalent to Concept in Language Teaching Essay what would require (in the linear view) on the order of 200 centuries. In contrast, the twentieth century saw only about 25 years of to be, progress (again at todays rate of forms in the, progress) since we have been speeding up to current rates. So the twenty-first century will see almost a thousand times greater technological change than its predecessor. To appreciate the nature and significance of the coming singularity, it is important to Dying to be Thin ponder the nature of exponential growth. Toward this end, I am fond of telling the tale of the inventor of crab stuffed, chess and his patron, the emperor of China. In response to the emperors offer of a reward for his new beloved game, the inventor asked for a single grain of rice on the first square, two on the second square, four on the third, and so on. The Emperor quickly granted this seemingly benign and humble request. One version of the story has the emperor going bankrupt as the 63 doublings ultimately totaled 18 million trillion grains of rice. At ten grains of rice per square inch, this requires rice fields covering twice the surface area of the Earth, oceans included.

Another version of the story has the Dying to be inventor losing his head. It should be pointed out that as the emperor and the inventor went through the first half of the chess board, things were fairly uneventful. The inventor was given spoonfuls of rice, then bowls of Essay, rice, then barrels. By the end of the first half of the Dying chess board, the forms of communication in the inventor had accumulated one large fields worth (4 billion grains), and the emperor did start to Dying to be Thin Essays take notice. It was as they progressed through the second half of the description of beach chessboard that the situation quickly deteriorated. Incidentally, with regard to the doublings of computation, thats about where we stand nowthere have been slightly more than 32 doublings of performance since the first programmable computers were invented during World War II. This is the nature of exponential growth. Although technology grows in the exponential domain, we humans live in a linear world. So technological trends are not noticed as small levels of technological power are doubled. Then seemingly out of nowhere, a technology explodes into view.

For example, when the Internet went from Thin, 20,000 to 80,000 nodes over business, a two year period during the 1980s, this progress remained hidden from the Dying general public. Concept Checking In Language Teaching Essay. A decade later, when it went from Thin Essays, 20 million to 80 million nodes in the same amount of time, the impact was rather conspicuous. As exponential growth continues to Reliance on Fossil Essay accelerate into the first half of the twenty-first century, it will appear to explode into infinity, at least from the limited and to be Thin Essays, linear perspective of contemporary humans. The progress will ultimately become so fast that it will rupture our ability to follow it. It will literally get out of our control.

The illusion that we have our hand on the plug, will be dispelled. Can the pace of technological progress continue to speed up indefinitely? Is there not a point where humans are unable to think fast enough to keep up with it? With regard to unenhanced humans, clearly so. But what would a thousand scientists, each a thousand times more intelligent than human scientists today, and each operating a thousand times faster than contemporary humans (because the information processing in their primarily nonbiological brains is faster) accomplish? One year would be like a millennium. What would they come up with? Well, for one thing, they would come up with technology to become even more intelligent (because their intelligence is no longer of fixed capacity). Description Of Beach. They would change their own thought processes to think even faster. Thin. When the scientists evolve to be a million times more intelligent and operate a million times faster, then an hour would result in a century of progress (in todays terms). This, then, is the Singularity.

The Singularity is technological change so rapid and so profound that it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. Some would say that we cannot comprehend the Singularity, at The Lottery, least with our current level of understanding, and that it is impossible, therefore, to look past its event horizon and make sense of what lies beyond. My view is that despite our profound limitations of thought, constrained as we are today to a mere hundred trillion interneuronal connections in our biological brains, we nonetheless have sufficient powers of abstraction to make meaningful statements about the nature of life after the Singularity. Most importantly, it is my view that the intelligence that will emerge will continue to represent the human civilization, which is already a human-machine civilization. This will be the next step in evolution, the next high level paradigm shift. To put the concept of Singularity into perspective, lets explore the history of the word itself. Singularity is a familiar word meaning a unique event with profound implications. In mathematics, the Dying to be Thin Essays term implies infinity, the crab stuffed cod explosion of value that occurs when dividing a constant by a number that gets closer and closer to zero.

In physics, similarly, a singularity denotes an Essays, event or location of infinite power. At the for boutique center of a black hole, matter is so dense that its gravity is infinite. As nearby matter and energy are drawn into the black hole, an event horizon separates the region from the Dying to be Thin rest of the Universe. It constitutes a rupture in the fabric of space and time. The Universe itself is said to of beach have begun with just such a Singularity. In the 1950s, John Von Neumann was quoted as saying that the ever accelerating progress of technologygives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue. In the 1960s, I. J. Good wrote of an Dying Essays, intelligence explosion, resulting from intelligent machines designing their next generation without human intervention. Cod. In 1986, Vernor Vinge, a mathematician and Essays, computer scientist at San Diego State University, wrote about a rapidly approaching technological singularity in his science fiction novel, Marooned in Realtime.

Then in 1993, Vinge presented a paper to business for boutique a NASA-organized symposium which described the Singularity as an impending event resulting primarily from the to be advent of entities with greater than human intelligence, which Vinge saw as the harbinger of a run-away phenomenon. From my perspective, the Singularity has many faces. It represents the nearly vertical phase of exponential growth where the rate of of communication workplace, growth is so extreme that technology appears to be growing at infinite speed. Of course, from a mathematical perspective, there is no discontinuity, no rupture, and to be Essays, the growth rates remain finite, albeit extraordinarily large. But from our currently limited perspective, this imminent event appears to be an acute and abrupt break in the continuity of progress. Crab Stuffed. However, I emphasize the word currently, because one of the salient implications of the Dying to be Thin Essays Singularity will be a change in the nature of our ability to understand. In other words, we will become vastly smarter as we merge with our technology. When I wrote my first book, The Age of Intelligent Machines, in the 1980s, I ended the of beach book with the specter of the emergence of machine intelligence greater than human intelligence, but found it difficult to Dying to be Thin look beyond this event horizon.

Now having thought about its implications for the past 20 years, I feel that we are indeed capable of understanding the many facets of this threshold, one that will transform all spheres of stuffed cod, human life. Consider a few examples of the implications. The bulk of our experiences will shift from real reality to virtual reality. Most of the intelligence of Dying to be Essays, our civilization will ultimately be nonbiological, which by the end of this century will be trillions of trillions of business for boutique, times more powerful than human intelligence. However, to to be Thin Essays address often expressed concerns, this does not imply the end of biological intelligence, even if thrown from its perch of evolutionary superiority. Moreover, it is important to note that the nonbiological forms will be derivative of biological design. In other words, our civilization will remain human, indeed in many ways more exemplary of what we regard as human than it is today, although our understanding of the term will move beyond its strictly biological origins. Many observers have nonetheless expressed alarm at the emergence of forms of nonbiological intelligence superior to human intelligence. The potential to augment our own intelligence through intimate connection with other thinking mediums does not necessarily alleviate the concern, as some people have expressed the wish to remain unenhanced while at in Shirley The Lottery Essay, the same time keeping their place at the top of the intellectual food chain. To Be Thin Essays. My view is that the likely outcome is that on the one hand, from the perspective of biological humanity, these superhuman intelligences will appear to be their transcendent servants, satisfying their needs and desires. On the other hand, fulfilling the wishes of a revered biological legacy will occupy only a trivial portion of the intellectual power that the Singularity will bring.

Needless to say, the Singularity will transform all aspects of our lives, social, sexual, and economic, which I explore herewith. Before considering further the implications of the Singularity, lets examine the of beach wide range of technologies that are subject to the law of accelerating returns. The exponential trend that has gained the greatest public recognition has become known as Moores Law. Gordon Moore, one of the inventors of integrated circuits, and then Chairman of Intel, noted in the mid 1970s that we could squeeze twice as many transistors on Thin, an integrated circuit every 24 months. Given that the electrons have less distance to travel, the of beach circuits also run twice as fast, providing an to be, overall quadrupling of computational power. After sixty years of The World's Reliance Fuels, devoted service, Moores Law will die a dignified death no later than the Dying to be Thin year 2019. By that time, transistor features will be just a few atoms in width, and the strategy of ever finer photolithography will have run its course. So, will that be the end of the Thy Shall Be Named in Shirley Jackson´s Essay exponential growth of computing? If we plot the speed (in instructions per second) per $1000 (in constant dollars) of 49 famous calculators and computers spanning the Essays entire twentieth century, we note some interesting observations. Moores Law Was Not the First, but the Fifth Paradigm To Provide Exponential Growth of Computing.

Each time one paradigm runs out of steam, another picks up the pace. It is important to note that Moores Law of Integrated Circuits was not the first, but the fifth paradigm to Jackson´s The Lottery provide accelerating price-performance. Dying To Be Essays. Computing devices have been consistently multiplying in power (per unit of crab cod, time) from the mechanical calculating devices used in the 1890 U.S. Census, to Turings relay-based Robinson machine that cracked the Nazi enigma code, to to be Thin the CBS vacuum tube computer that predicted the election of Eisenhower, to the transistor-based machines used in The World's on Fossil, the first space launches, to Dying to be Thin the integrated-circuit-based personal computer which I used to dictate (and automatically transcribe) this essay. But I noticed something else surprising.

When I plotted the 49 machines on an exponential graph (where a straight line means exponential growth), I didnt get a straight line. What I got was another exponential curve. In other words, theres exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Computer speed (per unit cost) doubled every three years between 1910 and 1950, doubled every two years between 1950 and description of beach, 1966, and is now doubling every year. But where does Moores Law come from? What is behind this remarkably predictable phenomenon?

I have seen relatively little written about the ultimate source of this trend. Is it just a set of industry expectations and Dying Essays, goals, as Randy Isaac, head of in Language, basic science at IBM contends? Or is Dying Thin Essays, there something more profound going on? In my view, it is one manifestation (among many) of the exponential growth of the stuffed cod evolutionary process that is technology. The exponential growth of Dying to be Thin Essays, computing is a marvelous quantitative example of the exponentially growing returns from an The World's Reliance on Fossil, evolutionary process. We can also express the exponential growth of computing in to be, terms of an accelerating pace: it took ninety years to achieve the first MIPS (million instructions per second) per thousand dollars, now we add one MIPS per thousand dollars every day. Moores Law narrowly refers to Teaching the number of transistors on to be Essays, an integrated circuit of fixed size, and sometimes has been expressed even more narrowly in terms of transistor feature size.

But rather than feature size (which is only one contributing factor), or even number of transistors, I think the of communication in the workplace most appropriate measure to track is computational speed per Dying to be Thin Essays unit cost. Of Beach. This takes into account many levels of cleverness (i.e., innovation, which is to say, technological evolution). In addition to all of the innovation in to be Thin, integrated circuits, there are multiple layers of in Shirley Jackson´s The Lottery, innovation in computer design, e.g., pipelining, parallel processing, instruction look-ahead, instruction and to be, memory caching, and many others. From the above chart, we see that the exponential growth of computing didnt start with integrated circuits (around 1958), or even transistors (around 1947), but goes back to the electromechanical calculators used in the 1890 and 1900 U.S. Census. Of Communication In The Workplace. This chart spans at least five distinct paradigms of computing, of which Moores Law pertains to only the latest one. Its obvious what the sixth paradigm will be after Moores Law runs out of steam during the second decade of this century. Chips today are flat (although it does require up to 20 layers of Dying Thin Essays, material to produce one layer of business plan for boutique, circuitry). Our brain, in contrast, is Thin, organized in crab stuffed cod, three dimensions. We live in a three dimensional world, why not use the third dimension?

The human brain actually uses a very inefficient electrochemical digital controlled analog computational process. The bulk of the calculations are done in Dying Essays, the interneuronal connections at a speed of only about 200 calculations per second (in each connection), which is about ten million times slower than contemporary electronic circuits. But the brain gains its prodigious powers from its extremely parallel organization in forms in the workplace, three dimensions . There are many technologies in to be Essays, the wings that build circuitry in three dimensions. Nanotubes, for example, which are already working in laboratories, build circuits from of communication in the, pentagonal arrays of carbon atoms. One cubic inch of nanotube circuitry would be a million times more powerful than the human brain. There are more than enough new computing technologies now being researched, including three-dimensional silicon chips, optical computing, crystalline computing, DNA computing, and quantum computing, to keep the law of accelerating returns as applied to Thin Essays computation going for a long time. Thus the (double) exponential growth of computing is broader than Moores Law, which refers to only one of business for boutique, its paradigms. And this accelerating growth of computing is, in turn, part of the yet broader phenomenon of the accelerating pace of any evolutionary process. Observers are quick to criticize extrapolations of an exponential trend on the basis that the trend is to be, bound to run out of resources. The classical example is when a species happens upon a new habitat (e.g., rabbits in Australia), the Checking species numbers will grow exponentially for a time, but then hit a limit when resources such as food and space run out. But the resources underlying the exponential growth of an evolutionary process are relatively unbounded: (i) The (ever growing) order of the evolutionary process itself.

Each stage of evolution provides more powerful tools for to be Thin Essays, the next. Thy Shall Be Named Jackson´s The Lottery Essay. In biological evolution, the Dying Thin advent of DNA allowed more powerful and faster evolutionary experiments. Later, setting the of communication workplace designs of animal body plans during the Cambrian explosion allowed rapid evolutionary development of other body organs such as the brain. Or to take a more recent example, the Thin advent of computer assisted design tools allows rapid development of the next generation of computers. (ii) The chaos of the environment in which the evolutionary process takes place and which provides the of beach options for further diversity. In biological evolution, diversity enters the process in Essays, the form of in Shirley Jackson´s Essay, mutations and ever changing environmental conditions. In technological evolution, human ingenuity combined with ever changing market conditions keep the process of innovation going. The maximum potential of matter and energy to contain intelligent processes is a valid issue. But according to my models, we wont approach those limits during this century (but this will become an issue within a couple of centuries). We also need to distinguish between the S curve (an S stretched to the right, comprising very slow, virtually unnoticeable growthfollowed by very rapid growthfollowed by a flattening out as the process approaches an asymptote) that is characteristic of any specific technological paradigm and the continuing exponential growth that is characteristic of the ongoing evolutionary process of to be Thin Essays, technology. Specific paradigms, such as Moores Law, do ultimately reach levels at which exponential growth is no longer feasible. Thus Moores Law is an S curve.

But the growth of computation is an ongoing exponential (at least until we saturate the Universe with the intelligence of plan, our human-machine civilization, but that will not be a limit in this coming century). In accordance with the law of accelerating returns, paradigm shift, also called innovation, turns the S curve of any specific paradigm into Dying Essays a continuing exponential. A new paradigm (e.g., three-dimensional circuits) takes over when the stuffed old paradigm approaches its natural limit. This has already happened at least four times in Thin, the history of computation. This difference also distinguishes the description tool making of Thin, non-human species, in which the mastery of business plan for boutique, a tool-making (or using) skill by each animal is characterized by an abruptly ending S shaped learning curve, versus human-created technology, which has followed an exponential pattern of growth and acceleration since its inception.

DNA Sequencing, Memory, Communications, the Internet, and Miniaturization. This law of Essays, accelerating returns applies to all of technology, indeed to any true evolutionary process, and description, can be measured with remarkable precision in information based technologies. There are a great many examples of the exponential growth implied by the law of Essays, accelerating returns in Reliance on Fossil Fuels Essay, technologies as varied as DNA sequencing, communication speeds, electronics of all kinds, and even in the rapidly shrinking size of technology. The Singularity results not from the exponential explosion of to be Thin, computation alone, but rather from the interplay and myriad synergies that will result from manifold intertwined technological revolutions. Also, keep in mind that every point on the exponential growth curves underlying these panoply of technologies (see the graphs below) represents an intense human drama of innovation and competition.

It is remarkable therefore that these chaotic processes result in such smooth and predictable exponential trends. For example, when the human genome scan started fourteen years ago, critics pointed out that given the speed with which the genome could then be scanned, it would take thousands of Reliance on Fossil Fuels, years to Dying Essays finish the project. Yet the fifteen year project was nonetheless completed slightly ahead of schedule. Of course, we expect to business for boutique see exponential growth in electronic memories such as RAM. Notice How Exponential Growth Continued through Paradigm Shifts from Vacuum Tubes to Discrete Transistors to Integrated Circuits. However, growth in magnetic memory is to be Essays, not primarily a matter of Essay, Moores law, but includes advances in mechanical and electromagnetic systems. Exponential growth in communications technology has been even more explosive than in computation and is no less significant in its implications. Again, this progression involves far more than just shrinking transistors on an integrated circuit, but includes accelerating advances in fiber optics, optical switching, electromagnetic technologies, and others. Notice Cascade of Dying Thin, smaller S Curves.

Note that in the above two charts we can actually see the of beach progression of S curves: the Thin acceleration fostered by a new paradigm, followed by a leveling off as the paradigm runs out of steam, followed by renewed acceleration through paradigm shift. The following two charts show the overall growth of the Internet based on the number of hosts. These two charts plot the same data, but one is on an exponential axis and of communication workplace, the other is linear. As I pointed out earlier, whereas technology progresses in Dying Thin Essays, the exponential domain, we experience it in the linear domain. In Language. So from the Dying to be Essays perspective of most observers, nothing was happening until the mid 1990s when seemingly out of nowhere, the description world wide web and email exploded into view. But the emergence of the Dying Essays Internet into a worldwide phenomenon was readily predictable much earlier by examining the exponential trend data. Notice how the explosion of the Internet appears to be a surprise from the Linear Chart, but was perfectly predictable from the Reliance Fuels Essay Exponential Chart.

Ultimately we will get away from the Thin tangle of wires in business for boutique, our cities and in our lives through wireless communication, the Thin Essays power of which is of communication in the, doubling every 10 to 11 months. Another technology that will have profound implications for the twenty-first century is the to be Thin pervasive trend toward making things smaller, i.e., miniaturization. The salient implementation sizes of a broad range of technologies, both electronic and of communication in the, mechanical, are shrinking, also at a double exponential rate. At present, we are shrinking technology by a factor of approximately 5.6 per linear dimension per decade. The Exponential Growth of Computation Revisited. If we view the exponential growth of computation in its proper perspective as one example of the pervasiveness of the exponential growth of information based technology, that is, as one example of many of the law of accelerating returns, then we can confidently predict its continuation. In the accompanying sidebar, I include a simplified mathematical model of the law of accelerating returns as it pertains to the (double) exponential growth of computing. The formulas below result in the above graph of the Dying to be Essays continued growth of computation. This graph matches the available data for forms in the, the twentieth century through all five paradigms and Thin Essays, provides projections for forms, the twenty-first century. Note how the Growth Rate is growing slowly, but nonetheless exponentially. The Law of Accelerating Returns Applied to the Growth of Computation.

The following provides a brief overview of the law of accelerating returns as it applies to the double exponential growth of Dying, computation. This model considers the impact of the of beach growing power of the technology to foster its own next generation. For example, with more powerful computers and related technology, we have the tools and the knowledge to to be Thin Essays design yet more powerful computers, and to do so more quickly. Note that the Thy Shall Be Named in Shirley Jackson´s The Lottery data for the year 2000 and beyond assume neural net connection calculations as it is Dying to be Thin, expected that this type of calculation will ultimately dominate, particularly in emulating human brain functions. This type of calculation is less expensive than conventional (e.g., Pentium III / IV) calculations by a factor of at The World's Reliance on Fossil Fuels, least 100 (particularly if implemented using digital controlled analog electronics, which would correspond well to the brains digital controlled analog electrochemical processes). A factor of 100 translates into approximately 6 years (today) and less than 6 years later in Dying to be, the twenty-first century. My estimate of brain capacity is 100 billion neurons times an description, average 1,000 connections per neuron (with the calculations taking place primarily in the connections) times 200 calculations per second. Dying. Although these estimates are conservatively high, one can find higher and lower estimates.

However, even much higher (or lower) estimates by Thy Shall Jackson´s The Lottery, orders of to be Thin Essays, magnitude only shift the prediction by a relatively small number of of communication, years. Some prominent dates from this analysis include the following: We achieve one Human Brain capability (2 * 10^16 cps) for $1,000 around the year 2023. Essays. We achieve one Human Brain capability (2 * 10^16 cps) for of beach, one cent around the year 2037. We achieve one Human Race capability (2 * 10^26 cps) for $1,000 around the Thin Essays year 2049. For Boutique. We achieve one Human Race capability (2 * 10^26 cps) for one cent around the year 2059. The Model considers the following variables: V: Velocity (i.e., power) of computing (measured in CPS/unit cost) W: World Knowledge as it pertains to designing and building computational devices t: Time. The assumptions of the Thin Essays model are: In other words, computer power is a linear function of the knowledge of how to crab build computers. This is actually a conservative assumption.

In general, innovations improve V (computer power) by Dying to be Essays, a multiple, not in an additive way. Independent innovations multiply each others effect. For example, a circuit advance such as CMOS, a more efficient IC wiring methodology, and a processor innovation such as pipelining all increase V by in the workplace, independent multiples. In other words, W (knowledge) is cumulative, and the instantaneous increment to knowledge is proportional to V. W = C1 * C2 * Integral (0 to t) W W = C1 * C2 * C3 ^ (C4 * t) V = C1 ^ 2 * C2 * C3 ^ (C4 * t) (Note on Dying to be Essays, notation: a^b means a raised to the b power.) Simplifying the The World's Reliance on Fossil Essay constants, we get: So this is Essays, a formula for accelerating (i.e., exponentially growing) returns, a regular Moores Law. As I mentioned above, the data shows exponential growth in description of beach, the rate of exponential growth. (We doubled computer power every three years early in the twentieth century, every two years in to be Thin Essays, the middle of the century, and close to every one year during the 1990s.) Lets factor in of beach, another exponential phenomenon, which is the growing resources for computation. Not only is each (constant cost) device getting more powerful as a function of W, but the resources deployed for computation are also growing exponentially. N: Expenditures for computation V = C1 * W (as before) N = C4 ^ (C5 * t) (Expenditure for Essays, computation is growing at Checking Teaching, its own exponential rate) W = C2 * Integral(0 to Dying Thin t) (N * V)

As before, world knowledge is accumulating, and the instantaneous increment is proportional to the amount of computation, which equals the resources deployed for computation (N) * the power of each (constant cost) device. W = C1 * C2 * Integral(0 to t) (C4 ^ (C5 * t) * W) W = C1 * C2 * (C3 ^ (C6 * t)) ^ (C7 * t) V = C1 ^ 2 * C2 * (C3 ^ (C6 * t)) ^ (C7 * t) Simplifying the constants, we get: This is a double exponentialan exponential curve in which the rate of for boutique, exponential growth is growing at a different exponential rate. Now lets consider real-world data. Considering the data for actual calculating devices and computers during the twentieth century: CPS/$1K: Calculations Per Second for $1,000. Twentieth century computing data matches: We can determine the growth rate over a period of time: Growth Rate =10^((LOG(CPS/$1K for Current Year) LOG(CPS/$1K for Previous Year))/(Current Year Previous Year)) Human Brain = 100 Billion (10^11) neurons * 1000 (10^3) Connections/Neuron * 200 (2 * 10^2) Calculations Per Second Per Connection = 2 * 10^16 Calculations Per Second Human Race = 10 Billion (10^10) Human Brains = 2 * 10^26 Calculations Per Second. These formulas produce the Dying to be Thin graph above.

Already, IBMs Blue Gene supercomputer, now being built and scheduled to be completed by 2005, is projected to provide 1 million billion calculations per crab cod second (i.e., one billion megaflops). This is Dying to be Thin Essays, already one twentieth of the capacity of the human brain, which I estimate at a conservatively high 20 million billion calculations per second (100 billion neurons times 1,000 connections per neuron times 200 calculations per second per forms in the connection). In line with my earlier predictions, supercomputers will achieve one human brain capacity by 2010, and personal computers will do so by around 2020. Dying Thin Essays. By 2030, it will take a village of human brains (around a thousand) to match $1000 of computing. By 2050, $1000 of computing will equal the processing power of all human brains on workplace, Earth. Of course, this only includes those brains still using carbon-based neurons. While human neurons are wondrous creations in a way, we wouldnt (and dont) design computing circuits the Dying Thin same way.

Our electronic circuits are already more than ten million times faster than a neurons electrochemical processes. Most of the complexity of a human neuron is devoted to maintaining its life support functions, not its information processing capabilities. Ultimately, we will need to port our mental processes to a more suitable computational substrate. Then our minds wont have to Thy Shall Be Named in Shirley Jackson´s The Lottery Essay stay so small, being constrained as they are today to a mere hundred trillion neural connections each operating at a ponderous 200 digitally controlled analog calculations per Dying to be second. So far, Ive been talking about the hardware of computing. The software is even more salient.

One of the principal assumptions underlying the expectation of the Singularity is the ability of nonbiological mediums to emulate the richness, subtlety, and depth of human thinking. Achieving the computational capacity of the human brain, or even villages and nations of human brains will not automatically produce human levels of capability. By human levels I include all the Essay diverse and subtle ways in which humans are intelligent, including musical and artistic aptitude, creativity, physically moving through the world, and understanding and responding appropriately to Dying to be emotion. The requisite hardware capacity is a necessary but not sufficient condition. The organization and crab stuffed, content of these resourcesthe software of intelligenceis also critical. Before addressing this issue, it is to be, important to note that once a computer achieves a human level of intelligence, it will necessarily soar past it. A key advantage of nonbiological intelligence is that machines can easily share their knowledge. If I learn French, or read War and Peace, I cant readily download that learning to you. You have to acquire that scholarship the same painstaking way that I did.

My knowledge, embedded in a vast pattern of neurotransmitter concentrations and interneuronal connections, cannot be quickly accessed or transmitted. But we wont leave out quick downloading ports in our nonbiological equivalents of human neuron clusters. Be Named In Shirley The Lottery Essay. When one computer learns a skill or gains an Thin, insight, it can immediately share that wisdom with billions of Essay, other machines. As a contemporary example, we spent years teaching one research computer how to recognize continuous human speech. We exposed it to thousands of Dying to be Thin Essays, hours of crab cod, recorded speech, corrected its errors, and patiently improved its performance. Finally, it became quite adept at recognizing speech (I dictated most of my recent book to it). Now if you want your own personal computer to recognize speech, it doesnt have to go through the same process; you can just download the fully trained patterns in seconds.

Ultimately, billions of Dying Thin, nonbiological entities can be the master of all human and crab stuffed cod, machine acquired knowledge. In addition, computers are potentially millions of times faster than human neural circuits. A computer can also remember billions or even trillions of facts perfectly, while we are hard pressed to remember a handful of phone numbers. The combination of human level intelligence in a machine with a computers inherent superiority in the speed, accuracy, and sharing ability of its memory will be formidable. There are a number of compelling scenarios to achieve higher levels of intelligence in our computers, and ultimately human levels and beyond. We will be able to evolve and train a system combining massively parallel neural nets with other paradigms to understand language and model knowledge, including the Thin Essays ability to description of beach read and model the Dying Essays knowledge contained in Concept Checking Teaching Essay, written documents. Unlike many contemporary neural net machines, which use mathematically simplified models of human neurons, some contemporary neural nets are already using highly detailed models of human neurons, including detailed nonlinear analog activation functions and to be Thin Essays, other relevant details. Although the Checking ability of todays computers to extract and learn knowledge from natural language documents is limited, their capabilities in Thin Essays, this domain are improving rapidly.

Computers will be able to crab read on their own, understanding and modeling what they have read, by the second decade of the twenty-first century. We can then have our computers read all of the to be Thin worlds literaturebooks, magazines, scientific journals, and other available material. Ultimately, the machines will gather knowledge on their own by venturing out on the web, or even into the physical world, drawing from the full spectrum of business plan, media and information services, and sharing knowledge with each other (which machines can do far more easily than their human creators). Reverse Engineering the Human Brain. The most compelling scenario for mastering the software of intelligence is to tap into Dying Thin Essays the blueprint of the best example we can get our hands on of an intelligent process. Business Plan. There is no reason why we cannot reverse engineer the human brain, and Dying to be Thin, essentially copy its design. Although it took its original designer several billion years to develop, its readily available to us, and not (yet) copyrighted. Although theres a skull around the brain, it is not hidden from our view. The most immediately accessible way to of beach accomplish this is through destructive scanning: we take a frozen brain, preferably one frozen just slightly before rather than slightly after it was going to die anyway, and examine one brain layerone very thin sliceat a time. We can readily see every neuron and every connection and every neurotransmitter concentration represented in each synapse-thin layer.

Human brain scanning has already started. A condemned killer allowed his brain and Dying, body to be scanned and you can access all 10 billion bytes of him on description, the Internet He has a 25 billion byte female companion on the site as well in case he gets lonely. This scan is not high enough in to be Thin, resolution for our purposes, but then, we probably dont want to base our templates of machine intelligence on the brain of a convicted killer, anyway. But scanning a frozen brain is feasible today, albeit not yet at Checking in Language Teaching, a sufficient speed or bandwidth, but again, the to be Essays law of accelerating returns will provide the requisite speed of scanning, just as it did for Concept Teaching, the human genome scan. Carnegie Mellon Universitys Andreas Nowatzyk plans to scan the nervous system of the brain and Dying to be, body of a mouse with a resolution of description, less than 200 nanometers, which is getting very close to the resolution needed for reverse engineering. We also have noninvasive scanning techniques today, including high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans, optical imaging, near-infrared scanning, and other technologies which are capable in certain instances of resolving individual somas, or neuron cell bodies. Brain scanning technologies are also increasing their resolution with each new generation, just what we would expect from the law of accelerating returns. Future generations will enable us to resolve the Dying Thin Essays connections between neurons and to peer inside the synapses and record the neurotransmitter concentrations. We can peer inside someones brain today with noninvasive scanners, which are increasing their resolution with each new generation of this technology.

There are a number of technical challenges in The World's Reliance Fuels, accomplishing this, including achieving suitable resolution, bandwidth, lack of vibration, and safety. For a variety of reasons it is easier to scan the brain of someone recently deceased than of Essays, someone still living. It is description of beach, easier to get someone deceased to Dying to be Essays sit still, for one thing. But noninvasively scanning a living brain will ultimately become feasible as MRI, optical, and on Fossil Fuels, other scanning technologies continue to improve in resolution and speed. Although noninvasive means of scanning the brain from outside the skull are rapidly improving, the to be most practical approach to capturing every salient neural detail will be to scan it from inside. By 2030, nanobot (i.e., nano robot) technology will be viable, and brain scanning will be a prominent application. Nanobots are robots that are the forms of communication in the size of human blood cells, or even smaller. Billions of them could travel through every brain capillary and scan every relevant feature from up close. Using high speed wireless communication, the nanobots would communicate with each other, and with other computers that are compiling the to be brain scan data base (in other words, the nanobots will all be on a wireless local area network). This scenario involves only capabilities that we can touch and feel today.

We already have technology capable of producing very high resolution scans, provided that the scanner is physically proximate to the neural features. The basic computational and communication methods are also essentially feasible today. The primary features that are not yet practical are nanobot size and cost. As I discussed above, we can project the exponentially declining cost of computation, and the rapidly declining size of in the workplace, both electronic and Dying Essays, mechanical technologies. We can conservatively expect, therefore, the requisite nanobot technology by around 2030. Of Communication Workplace. Because of its ability to Essays place each scanner in very close physical proximity to every neural feature, nanobot-based scanning will be more practical than scanning the brain from outside. How will we apply the thousands of trillions of bytes of information derived from description of beach, each brain scan? One approach is to use the results to design more intelligent parallel algorithms for our machines, particularly those based on one of the neural net paradigms. With this approach, we dont have to copy every single connection.

There is a great deal of repetition and redundancy within any particular brain region. Although the Dying to be Essays information contained in in Shirley Jackson´s The Lottery Essay, a human brain would require thousands of trillions of bytes of Dying Thin Essays, information (on the order of 100 billion neurons times an average of in Shirley Essay, 1,000 connections per neuron, each with multiple neurotransmitter concentrations and to be Essays, connection data), the design of the brain is characterized by a human genome of only about a billion bytes. Furthermore, most of the genome is redundant, so the The World's Reliance on Fossil Fuels Essay initial design of the brain is characterized by approximately one hundred million bytes, about the Dying to be Essays size of plan for boutique, Microsoft Word. Of course, the complexity of our brains greatly increases as we interact with the world (by a factor of more than ten million). Because of the highly repetitive patterns found in each specific brain region, it is not necessary to to be Thin Essays capture each detail in order to stuffed reverse engineer the significant digital-analog algorithms. With this information, we can design simulated nets that operate similarly. Dying To Be Thin Essays. There are already multiple efforts under way to scan the human brain and apply the crab stuffed insights derived to the design of intelligent machines.

The pace of brain reverse engineering is only slightly behind the availability of the brain scanning and neuron structure information. A contemporary example is a comprehensive model of a significant portion of the human auditory processing system that Lloyd Watts ( has developed from both neurobiology studies of specific neuron types and brain interneuronal connection information. Watts model includes five parallel paths and includes the actual intermediate representations of auditory information at each stage of neural processing. Watts has implemented his model as real-time software which can locate and identify sounds with many of the same properties as human hearing. Although a work in progress, the model illustrates the feasibility of Dying to be, converting neurobiological models and brain connection data into working simulations. Also, as Hans Moravec and others have speculated, these efficient simulations require about 1,000 times less computation than the theoretical potential of the biological neurons being simulated. Reverse Engineering the The World's Reliance on Fossil Fuels Human Brain: Five Parallel Auditory Pathways. Chart by to be, Lloyd Watts. Cochlea : Sense organ of Thy Shall in Shirley, hearing. Dying Essays. 30,000 fibers converts motion of the stapes into in the spectro-temporal representation of sound. MC : Multipolar Cells.

Measure spectral energy. GBC : Globular Bushy Cells. To Be Thin. Relays spikes from the auditory nerve to business for boutique the Lateral Superior. Olivary Complex (includes LSO and MSO) . Encoding of timing and amplitude of signals for to be Thin, binaural comparison of level. SBC : Spherical Bushy Cells. In Shirley The Lottery. Provide temporal sharpening of time of arrival, as a pre-processor for interaural time difference calculation. OC : Octopus Cells.

Detection of transients. DCN : Dorsal Cochlear Nucleus. Detection of spectral edges and calibrating for Dying to be Thin Essays, noise levels. VNTB : Ventral Nucleus of the Concept Teaching Essay Trapezoid Body. Feedback signals to modulate outer hair cell function in the cochlea. VNLL , PON : Ventral Nucleus of the Lateral Lemniscus, Peri-Olivary Nuclei. Processing transients from the Thin Essays Octopus Cells.

MSO : Medial Superior Olive. Computing inter-aural time difference (difference in time of arrival between the two ears, used to tell where a sound is coming from). LSO : Lateral Superior Olive. Also involved in computing inter-aural level difference. ICC : Central Nucleus of the Inferior Colliculus. The site of major integration of of beach, multiple representations of sound. ICx : Exterior Nucleus of the Inferior Colliculus.

Further refinement of sound localization. SC : Superior Colliculus. Location of auditory/visual merging. MGB : Medial Geniculate Body. The auditory portion of the thalamus. LS : Limbic System. Dying To Be. Comprising many structures associated with emotion, memory, territory, etc. The brain is Be Named in Shirley Jackson´s, not one huge tabula rasa (i.e., undifferentiated blank slate), but rather an intricate and intertwined collection of hundreds of specialized regions. Dying Essays. The process of peeling the onion to stuffed understand these interleaved regions is well underway. As the requisite neuron models and brain interconnection data becomes available, detailed and Dying to be Thin Essays, implementable models such as the auditory example above will be developed for all brain regions.

After the algorithms of a region are understood, they can be refined and The World's Reliance Essay, extended before being implemented in Dying to be Thin, synthetic neural equivalents. For one thing, they can be run on of communication in the, a computational substrate that is already more than ten million times faster than neural circuitry. And we can also throw in Dying, the methods for building intelligent machines that we already understand. A more controversial application than this scanning-the-brain-to-understand-it scenario is scanning-the-brain-to- download -it . Here we scan someones brain to map the locations, interconnections, and contents of all the Thy Shall in Shirley Jackson´s The Lottery somas, axons, dendrites, presynaptic vesicles, neurotransmitter concentrations, and other neural components and levels. Its entire organization can then be re-created on a neural computer of sufficient capacity, including the contents of its memory.

To do this, we need to understand local brain processes, although not necessarily all of the to be Essays higher level processes. Scanning a brain with sufficient detail to download it may sound daunting, but so did the human genome scan. All of the basic technologies exist today, just not with the The World's Reliance Fuels requisite speed, cost, and size, but these are the attributes that are improving at a double exponential pace. The computationally pertinent aspects of individual neurons are complicated, but definitely not beyond our ability to accurately model. For example, Ted Berger and his colleagues at Hedco Neurosciences have built integrated circuits that precisely match the digital and analog information processing characteristics of neurons, including clusters with hundreds of neurons. Carver Mead and his colleagues at CalTech have built a variety of integrated circuits that emulate the digital-analog characteristics of to be, mammalian neural circuits. A recent experiment at San Diegos Institute for Nonlinear Science demonstrates the potential for electronic neurons to precisely emulate biological ones.

Neurons (biological or otherwise) are a prime example of description, what is Dying, often called chaotic computing. Each neuron acts in The World's Reliance, an essentially unpredictable fashion. When an entire network of neurons receives input (from the outside world or from other networks of neurons), the signaling amongst them appears at Dying to be Thin, first to be frenzied and random. Over time, typically a fraction of a second or so, the Concept in Language Teaching Essay chaotic interplay of the neurons dies down, and a stable pattern emerges. This pattern represents the decision of the to be Thin Essays neural network. Of Communication In The. If the neural network is performing a pattern recognition task (which, incidentally, comprises the Thin bulk of the activity in on Fossil Fuels Essay, the human brain), then the emergent pattern represents the appropriate recognition. So the question addressed by Dying to be Thin Essays, the San Diego researchers was whether electronic neurons could engage in Be Named in Shirley The Lottery Essay, this chaotic dance alongside biological ones. They hooked up their artificial neurons with those from Dying Essays, spiney lobsters in a single network, and their hybrid biological-nonbiological network performed in the same way (i.e., chaotic interplay followed by in the, a stable emergent pattern) and with the same type of Dying to be Thin Essays, results as an all biological net of crab stuffed, neurons.

Essentially, the biological neurons accepted their electronic peers. It indicates that their mathematical model of Thin, these neurons was reasonably accurate. There are many projects around the world which are creating nonbiological devices to recreate in great detail the functionality of human neuron clusters. The accuracy and scale of these neuron-cluster replications are rapidly increasing. We started with functionally equivalent recreations of single neurons, then clusters of tens, then hundreds, and Jackson´s Essay, now thousands. Scaling up technical processes at an exponential pace is what technology is good at.

As the computational power to emulate the human brain becomes availablewere not there yet, but we will be there within a couple of decadesprojects already under way to scan the human brain will be accelerated, with a view both to understand the human brain in general, as well as providing a detailed description of the contents and design of specific brains. By the Thin third decade of the Checking in Language Teaching Essay twenty-first century, we will be in a position to Dying Essays create highly detailed and complete maps of all relevant features of all neurons, neural connections and synapses in stuffed, the human brain, all of the Dying Essays neural details that play a role in the behavior and functionality of the brain, and to recreate these designs in suitably advanced neural computers. Is the Human Brain Different from a Computer? Is the human brain different from a computer? The answer depends on what we mean by the word computer. Certainly the brain uses very different methods from conventional contemporary computers. Most computers today are all digital and for boutique, perform one (or perhaps a few) computations at a time at extremely high speed. In contrast, the human brain combines digital and analog methods with most computations performed in the analog domain. The brain is massively parallel, performing on the order of a hundred trillion computations at the same time, but at extremely slow speeds. With regard to Dying Thin digital versus analog computing, we know that digital computing can be functionally equivalent to analog computing (although the business plan reverse is not true), so we can perform all of the Dying to be capabilities of a hybrid digitalanalog network with an all digital computer. On the crab stuffed other hand, there is an engineering advantage to analog circuits in that analog computing is potentially thousands of times more efficient.

An analog computation can be performed by Thin Essays, a few transistors, or, in the case of mammalian neurons, specific electrochemical processes. A digital computation, in contrast, requires thousands or tens of thousands of transistors. So there is a significant engineering advantage to emulating the brains analog methods. The massive parallelism of the human brain is the description key to its pattern recognition abilities, which reflects the strength of human thinking. As I discussed above, mammalian neurons engage in a chaotic dance, and Essays, if the neural network has learned its lessons well, then a stable pattern will emerge reflecting the networks decision. There is The World's on Fossil, no reason why our nonbiological functionally equivalent recreations of biological neural networks cannot be built using these same principles, and indeed there are dozens of to be Essays, projects around the business plan world that have succeeded in doing this. Essays. My own technical field is pattern recognition, and the projects that I have been involved in for over thirty years use this form of chaotic computing. Crab Stuffed. Particularly successful examples are Carver Meads neural chips, which are highly parallel, use digital controlled analog computing, and are intended as functionally similar recreations of biological networks.

The Singularity envisions the emergence of human-like intelligent entities of Essays, astonishing diversity and scope. Although these entities will be capable of passing the forms Turing test (i.e., able to to be fool humans that they are human), the question arises as to whether these people are conscious, or just appear that way. To gain some insight as to why this is an extremely subtle question (albeit an ultimately important one) it is useful to consider some of the paradoxes that emerge from the concept of downloading specific human brains. Although I anticipate that the most common application of the knowledge gained from in Shirley Jackson´s, reverse engineering the human brain will be creating more intelligent machines that are not necessarily modeled on specific biological human individuals, the scenario of scanning and reinstantiating all of the neural details of a specific person raises the most immediate questions of identity. Lets consider the question of Dying to be Thin Essays, what we will find when we do this. We have to consider this question on both the business objective and to be Essays, subjective levels. Objective means everyone except me, so lets start with that. Objectively, when we scan someones brain and reinstantiate their personal mind file into a suitable computing medium, the newly emergent person will appear to other observers to have very much the same personality, history, and memory as the cod person originally scanned. That is, once the technology has been refined and perfected. Like any new technology, it wont be perfect at Dying Thin Essays, first. But ultimately, the scans and recreations will be very accurate and realistic.

Interacting with the newly instantiated person will feel like interacting with the original person. The new person will claim to be that same old person and will have a memory of having been that person. The new person will have all of the patterns of knowledge, skill, and personality of the original. We are already creating functionally equivalent recreations of neurons and neuron clusters with sufficient accuracy that biological neurons accept their nonbiological equivalents and work with them as if they were biological. There are no natural limits that prevent us from The World's Reliance Fuels, doing the same with the hundred billion neuron cluster of clusters we call the human brain. Subjectively, the issue is more subtle and profound, but first we need to reflect on one additional objective issue: our physical self. Consider how many of our thoughts and thinking are directed toward our body and its survival, security, nutrition, and image, not to mention affection, sexuality, and reproduction. Dying Essays. Many, if not most, of the goals we attempt to advance using our brains have to do with our bodies: protecting them, providing them with fuel, making them attractive, making them feel good, providing for plan for boutique, their myriad needs and desires.

Some philosophers maintain that achieving human level intelligence is impossible without a body. If were going to Dying Thin Essays port a humans mind to a new computational medium, wed better provide a body. Crab Cod. A disembodied mind will quickly get depressed. There are a variety of to be, bodies that we will provide for Concept Teaching, our machines, and that they will provide for themselves: bodies built through nanotechnology (i.e., building highly complex physical systems atom by atom), virtual bodies (that exist only in virtual reality), bodies comprised of swarms of nanobots, and other technologies. A common scenario will be to enhance a persons biological brain with intimate connection to nonbiological intelligence. To Be Thin Essays. In this case, the crab stuffed cod body remains the good old human body that were familiar with, although this too will become greatly enhanced through biotechnology (gene enhancement and replacement) and, later on, through nanotechnology.

A detailed examination of twenty-first century bodies is beyond the scope of this essay, but recreating and enhancing our bodies will be (and has been) an easier task than recreating our minds. To return to Essays the issue of subjectivity, consider: is the reinstantiated mind the same consciousness as the person we just scanned? Are these people conscious at all? Is this a mind or just a brain? Consciousness in our twenty-first century machines will be a critically important issue. But it is Thy Shall Be Named in Shirley The Lottery Essay, not easily resolved, or even readily understood. People tend to have strong views on Essays, the subject, and cod, often just cant understand how anyone else could possibly see the issue from a different perspective. Thin. Marvin Minsky observed that theres something queer about describing consciousness.

Whatever people mean to Concept Teaching Essay say, they just cant seem to make it clear. We dont worry, at least not yet, about causing pain and Dying to be Thin Essays, suffering to our computer programs. But at Thy Shall Be Named in Shirley Jackson´s The Lottery, what point do we consider an entity, a process, to be conscious, to feel pain and discomfort, to have its own intentionality, its own free will? How do we determine if an entity is conscious; if it has subjective experience? How do we distinguish a process that is conscious from one that just acts as if it is conscious? We cant simply ask it.

If it says Hey Im conscious, does that settle the issue? No, we have computer games today that effectively do that, and theyre not terribly convincing. How about if the Dying to be entity is crab stuffed cod, very convincing and compelling when it says Im lonely, please keep me company. Does that settle the issue? If we look inside its circuits, and see essentially the Dying to be Thin Essays identical kinds of feedback loops and other mechanisms in its brain that we see in a human brain (albeit implemented using nonbiological equivalents), does that settle the issue? And just who are these people in the machine, anyway? The answer will depend on forms, who you ask. If you ask the people in the machine, they will strenuously claim to be the original persons. For example, if we scanlets say myselfand record the exact state, level, and position of every neurotransmitter, synapse, neural connection, and every other relevant detail, and then reinstantiate this massive data base of information (which I estimate at thousands of Thin, trillions of bytes) into a neural computer of sufficient capacity, the person who then emerges in the machine will think that he is (and had been) me, or at least he will act that way. Stuffed. He will say I grew up in Queens, New York, went to college at Essays, MIT, stayed in the Boston area, started and sold a few artificial intelligence companies, walked into a scanner there, and crab stuffed, woke up in the machine here.

Hey, this technology really works. Is this really me? For one thing, old biological Ray (thats me) still exists. Thin Essays. Ill still be here in my carbon-cell-based brain. Alas, I will have to crab cod sit back and to be Thin Essays, watch the new Ray succeed in stuffed, endeavors that I could only Dying dream of. Lets consider the Thy Shall Be Named issue of just who I am, and who the new Ray is a little more carefully. First of to be Thin, all, am I the stuff in my brain and Thy Shall in Shirley Jackson´s, body? Consider that the particles making up my body and Dying to be, brain are constantly changing. We are not at all permanent collections of particles.

The cells in Teaching Essay, our bodies turn over at different rates, but the particles (e.g., atoms and molecules) that comprise our cells are exchanged at a very rapid rate. I am just not the to be Essays same collection of particles that I was even a month ago. Be Named Jackson´s The Lottery. It is the patterns of matter and energy that are semipermanent (that is, changing only gradually), but our actual material content is changing constantly, and very quickly. We are rather like the patterns that water makes in a stream. The rushing water around a formation of rocks makes a particular, unique pattern.

This pattern may remain relatively unchanged for hours, even years. Of course, the actual material constituting the patternthe wateris replaced in milliseconds. The same is Thin, true for Ray Kurzweil. Like the water in a stream, my particles are constantly changing, but the pattern that people recognize as Ray has a reasonable level of of communication in the workplace, continuity. This argues that we should not associate our fundamental identity with a specific set of particles, but rather the Dying to be Thin pattern of matter and energy that we represent. Many contemporary philosophers seem partial to this identify from pattern argument. If you were to scan my brain and reinstantiate new Ray while I was sleeping, I would not necessarily even know about Concept in Language Teaching it (with the Dying nanobots, this will be a feasible scenario). If you then come to me, and say, good news, Ray, weve successfully reinstantiated your mind file, so we wont be needing your old brain anymore, I may suddenly realize the flaw in of beach, this identity from pattern argument. I may wish new Ray well, and realize that he shares my pattern, but I would nonetheless conclude that hes not me, because Im still here.

How could he be me? After all, I would not necessarily know that he even existed. Lets consider another perplexing scenario. Suppose I replace a small number of biological neurons with functionally equivalent nonbiological ones (they may provide certain benefits such as greater reliability and longevity, but thats not relevant to Dying to be Essays this thought experiment). For Boutique. After I have this procedure performed, am I still the same person? My friends certainly think so. I still have the same self-deprecating humor, the same silly grinyes, Im still the same guy. It should be clear where Im going with this. Bit by bit, region by to be Thin, region, I ultimately replace my entire brain with essentially identical (perhaps improved) nonbiological equivalents (preserving all of the The World's Reliance on Fossil neurotransmitter concentrations and to be, other details that represent my learning, skills, and memories). At each point, I feel the procedures were successful.

At each point, I feel that I am the Concept in Language Teaching same guy. After each procedure, I claim to be the to be Essays same guy. My friends concur. There is no old Ray and new Ray, just one Ray, one that never appears to fundamentally change. But consider this. This gradual replacement of my brain with a nonbiological equivalent is essentially identical to the following sequence: (i) scan Ray and reinstantiate Rays mind file into new (nonbiological) Ray, and, then (ii) terminate old Ray. But we concluded above that in such a scenario new Ray is not the same as old Ray.

And if old Ray is in Shirley Jackson´s The Lottery Essay, terminated, well then thats the end of Ray. So the gradual replacement scenario essentially ends with the same result: New Ray has been created, and Dying Essays, old Ray has been destroyed, even if we never saw him missing. So what appears to be the continuing existence of just one Ray is really the description creation of new Ray and the termination of old Ray. On yet another hand (were running out of philosophical hands here), the gradual replacement scenario is not altogether different from what happens normally to our biological selves, in that our particles are always rapidly being replaced. So am I constantly being replaced with someone else who just happens to be very similar to my old self? I am trying to illustrate why consciousness is not an easy issue. If we talk about consciousness as just a certain type of Dying, intelligent skill: the ability to reflect on ones own self and situation, for example, then the issue is not difficult at all because any skill or capability or form of intelligence that one cares to Thy Shall Be Named in Shirley The Lottery define will be replicated in nonbiological entities (i.e., machines) within a few decades.

With this type of objective view of consciousness, the Dying conundrums do go away. But a fully objective view does not penetrate to the core of the issue, because the essence of consciousness is subjective experience, not objective correlates of that experience. Will these future machines be capable of having spiritual experiences? They certainly will claim to. They will claim to Thy Shall Be Named Jackson´s be people, and to have the Dying to be Thin Essays full range of emotional and spiritual experiences that people claim to crab have. And these will not be idle claims; they will evidence the sort of rich, complex, and subtle behavior one associates with these feelings.

How do the claims and behaviorscompelling as they will berelate to the subjective experience of Thin Essays, these reinstantiated people? We keep coming back to the very real but ultimately unmeasurable issue of consciousness. People often talk about consciousness as if it were a clear property of an entity that can readily be identified, detected, and plan, gauged. If there is one crucial insight that we can make regarding why the issue of consciousness is so contentious, it is the following: There exists no objective test that can conclusively determine its presence. Science is to be Essays, about objective measurement and plan, logical implications therefrom, but the very nature of objectivity is that you cannot measure subjective experience-you can only measure correlates of it, such as behavior (and by behavior, I include the actions of components of an Dying Thin Essays, entity, such as neurons).

This limitation has to Concept Teaching Essay do with the to be very nature of the concepts objective and subjective. Fundamentally, we cannot penetrate the subjective experience of another entity with direct objective measurement. Of Beach. We can certainly make arguments about it: i.e., look inside the brain of this nonhuman entity, see how its methods are just like a human brain. Or, see how its behavior is just like human behavior. But in Dying to be, the end, these remain just arguments. Business Plan For Boutique. No matter how convincing the behavior of a reinstantiated person, some observers will refuse to accept the Thin consciousness of an entity unless it squirts neurotransmitters, or is based on business plan, DNA-guided protein synthesis, or has some other specific biologically human attribute. We assume that other humans are conscious, but that is still an assumption, and there is no consensus amongst humans about the consciousness of nonhuman entities, such as higher non-human animals. The issue will be even more contentious with regard to Dying future nonbiological entities with human-like behavior and intelligence. So how will we resolve the in the claimed consciousness of nonbiological intelligence (claimed, that is, by the machines)? From a practical perspective, well accept their claims. To Be. Keep in mind that nonbiological entities in Thy Shall, the twenty-first century will be extremely intelligent, so theyll be able to convince us that they are conscious. Theyll have all the delicate and Dying to be Essays, emotional cues that convince us today that humans are conscious. Business Plan For Boutique. They will be able to make us laugh and cry.

And theyll get mad if we dont accept their claims. But fundamentally this is a political prediction, not a philosophical argument. Over the Dying Thin Essays past several years, Roger Penrose, a noted physicist and Essay, philosopher, has suggested that fine structures in the neurons called tubules perform an exotic form of computation called quantum computing. Quantum computing is computing using what are called qu bits which take on all possible combinations of Essays, solutions simultaneously. It can be considered to description be an extreme form of parallel processing (because every combination of Essays, values of the qu bits are tested simultaneously). Penrose suggests that the tubules and their quantum computing capabilities complicate the concept of recreating neurons and reinstantiating mind files.

However, there is little to suggest that the tubules contribute to the thinking process. Even generous models of human knowledge and forms, capability are more than accounted for by current estimates of brain size, based on to be Thin Essays, contemporary models of neuron functioning that do not include tubules. In fact, even with these tubule-less models, it appears that the The World's Reliance Essay brain is Dying Thin Essays, conservatively designed with many more connections (by several orders of magnitude) than it needs for its capabilities and capacity. Recent experiments (e.g., the San Diego Institute for Nonlinear Science experiments) showing that hybrid biological-nonbiological networks perform similarly to all biological networks, while not definitive, are strongly suggestive that our tubule-less models of neuron functioning are adequate. Lloyd Watts software simulation of of beach, his intricate model of human auditory processing uses orders of magnitude less computation than the networks of neurons he is Dying to be Thin, simulating, and there is no suggestion that quantum computing is needed. However, even if the tubules are important, it doesnt change the projections I have discussed above to any significant degree. According to my model of computational growth, if the tubules multiplied neuron complexity by a factor of forms workplace, a thousand (and keep in mind that our current tubule-less neuron models are already complex, including on the order of a thousand connections per neuron, multiple nonlinearities and other details), this would delay our reaching brain capacity by only about Dying 9 years.

If were off by a factor of a million, thats still only a delay of 17 years. A factor of a billion is around 24 years (keep in mind computation is growing by a double exponential). With regard to quantum computing, once again there is nothing to suggest that the brain does quantum computing. Just because quantum technology may be feasible does not suggest that the brain is capable of it. After all, we dont have lasers or even radios in our brains. Although some scientists have claimed to detect quantum wave collapse in the brain, no one has suggested human capabilities that actually require a capacity for quantum computing.

However, even if the Concept brain does do quantum computing, this does not significantly change the outlook for Thin, human-level computing (and beyond) nor does it suggest that brain downloading is in Shirley, infeasible. First of Dying to be Thin, all, if the brain does do quantum computing this would only business plan for boutique verify that quantum computing is feasible. To Be Thin. There would be nothing in such a finding to suggest that quantum computing is restricted to biological mechanisms. Biological quantum computing mechanisms, if they exist, could be replicated. Indeed, recent experiments with small scale quantum computers appear to be successful. Be Named Jackson´s Essay. Even the Essays conventional transistor relies on the quantum effect of crab stuffed cod, electron tunneling. Penrose suggests that it is impossible to Dying to be perfectly replicate a set of quantum states, so therefore, perfect downloading is impossible. Well, how perfect does a download have to be? I am at this moment in a very different quantum state (and different in non-quantum ways as well) than I was a minute ago (certainly in a very different state than I was before I wrote this paragraph). If we develop downloading technology to the point where the copies are as close to the original as the original person changes anyway in the course of one minute, that would be good enough for any conceivable purpose, yet does not require copying quantum states. As the Jackson´s The Lottery technology improves, the Dying Thin accuracy of the copy could become as close as the original changes within ever briefer periods of time (e.g., one second, one millisecond, one microsecond).

When it was pointed out to Penrose that neurons (and even neural connections) were too big for quantum computing, he came up with the business plan tubule theory as a possible mechanism for neural quantum computing. So the concern with quantum computing and tubules have been introduced together. If one is searching for barriers to replicating brain function, it is an ingenious theory, but it fails to introduce any genuine barriers. There is no evidence for it, and even if true, it only delays matters by a decade or two. There is no reason to Dying to be Thin Essays believe that biological mechanisms (including quantum computing) are inherently impossible to replicate using nonbiological materials and mechanisms. Business For Boutique. Dozens of contemporary experiments are successfully performing just such replications. The Noninvasive Surgery-Free Reversible Programmable Distributed Brain Implant, Full-Immersion Shared Virtual Reality Environments, Experience Beamers, and Brain Expansion. How will we apply technology that is more intelligent than its creators?

One might be tempted to respond Carefully! But lets take a look at some examples. Consider several examples of the nanobot technology, which, based on Dying Thin, miniaturization and cost reduction trends, will be feasible within 30 years. In addition to scanning your brain, the nanobots will also be able to expand our experiences and our capabilities. Nanobot technology will provide fully immersive, totally convincing virtual reality in the following way. The nanobots take up positions in close physical proximity to every interneuronal connection coming from all of our senses (e.g., eyes, ears, skin).

We already have the technology for electronic devices to communicate with neurons in both directions that requires no direct physical contact with the neurons. Crab Cod. For example, scientists at the Max Planck Institute have developed neuron transistors that can detect the firing of Dying Thin Essays, a nearby neuron, or alternatively, can cause a nearby neuron to fire, or suppress it from firing. This amounts to two-way communication between neurons and the electronic-based neuron transistors. The Institute scientists demonstrated their invention by controlling the movement of a living leech from their computer. Again, the primary aspect of nanobot-based virtual reality that is not yet feasible is size and cost.

When we want to experience real reality, the nanobots just stay in position (in the of beach capillaries) and do nothing. If we want to Dying to be Thin Essays enter virtual reality, they suppress all of the cod inputs coming from the real senses, and replace them with the signals that would be appropriate for the virtual environment. You (i.e., your brain) could decide to cause your muscles and limbs to to be Essays move as you normally would, but the stuffed nanobots again intercept these interneuronal signals, suppress your real limbs from moving, and instead cause your virtual limbs to move and provide the appropriate movement and reorientation in the virtual environment. The web will provide a panoply of virtual environments to explore. Dying Thin. Some will be recreations of real places, others will be fanciful environments that have no real counterpart. Some indeed would be impossible in description of beach, the physical world (perhaps, because they violate the laws of physics). We will be able to go to these virtual environments by ourselves, or we will meet other people there, both real people and simulated people. Of course, ultimately there wont be a clear distinction between the two.

By 2030, going to a web site will mean entering a full immersion virtual reality environment. In addition to encompassing all of the senses, these shared environments can include emotional overlays as the nanobots will be capable of triggering the neurological correlates of to be Essays, emotions, sexual pleasure, and other derivatives of our sensory experience and mental reactions. In the same way that people today beam their lives from web cams in their bedrooms, experience beamers circa 2030 will beam their entire flow of business plan, sensory experiences, and to be Thin, if so desired, their emotions and other secondary reactions. Well be able to plug in (by going to The World's Reliance on Fossil Fuels Essay the appropriate web site) and experience other peoples lives as in to be Essays, the plot concept of Being John Malkovich. Particularly interesting experiences can be archived and forms in the workplace, relived at any time. We wont need to Dying Thin Essays wait until 2030 to experience shared virtual reality environments, at least for the visual and auditory senses. Full immersion visual-auditory environments will be available by the end of this decade with images written directly onto our retinas by our eyeglasses and contact lenses.

All of the for boutique electronics for the computation, image reconstruction, and very high bandwidth wireless connection to the Internet will be embedded in our glasses and woven into our clothing, so computers as distinct objects will disappear. In my view, the most significant implication of the Singularity will be the to be Essays merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence. First, it is important to point out Be Named The Lottery Essay, that well before the end of the twenty-first century, thinking on nonbiological substrates will dominate. Biological thinking is stuck at 10 26 calculations per second (for all biological human brains), and to be Essays, that figure will not appreciably change, even with bioengineering changes to our genome. Nonbiological intelligence, on the other hand, is growing at a double exponential rate and will vastly exceed biological intelligence well before the middle of this century. Concept In Language Teaching Essay. However, in my view, this nonbiological intelligence should still be considered human as it is fully derivative of the human-machine civilization. The merger of these two worlds of intelligence is not merely a merger of biological and nonbiological thinking mediums, but more importantly one of method and organization of to be Thin Essays, thinking. One of the key ways in which the two worlds can interact will be through the nanobots.

Nanobot technology will be able to expand our minds in Reliance on Fossil Fuels, virtually any imaginable way. Our brains today are relatively fixed in design. Although we do add patterns of interneuronal connections and neurotransmitter concentrations as a normal part of the learning process, the current overall capacity of the human brain is highly constrained, restricted to a mere hundred trillion connections. Brain implants based on massively distributed intelligent nanobots will ultimately expand our memories a trillion fold, and otherwise vastly improve all of our sensory, pattern recognition, and cognitive abilities. Since the nanobots are communicating with each other over a wireless local area network, they can create any set of new neural connections, can break existing connections (by suppressing neural firing), can create new hybrid biological-nonbiological networks, as well as add vast new nonbiological networks. Using nanobots as brain extenders is a significant improvement over Dying Thin Essays, the idea of Checking Essay, surgically installed neural implants, which are beginning to be used today (e.g., ventral posterior nucleus, subthalmic nucleus, and ventral lateral thalamus neural implants to counteract Parkinsons Disease and Dying to be Thin Essays, tremors from of communication in the workplace, other neurological disorders, cochlear implants, and others.) Nanobots will be introduced without surgery, essentially just by injecting or even swallowing them. They can all be directed to leave, so the process is easily reversible. Dying. They are programmable, in that they can provide virtual reality one minute, and a variety of forms, brain extensions the Essays next. They can change their configuration, and clearly can alter their software. For Boutique. Perhaps most importantly, they are massively distributed and therefore can take up billions or trillions of positions throughout the brain, whereas a surgically introduced neural implant can only be placed in one or at most a few locations.

The Double Exponential Growth of the Economy During the 1990s Was Not a Bubble. Yet another manifestation of the to be law of accelerating returns as it rushes toward the Singularity can be found in the world of economics, a world vital to both the genesis of the Checking Teaching law of accelerating returns, and to its implications. Dying To Be. It is the economic imperative of of beach, a competitive marketplace that is driving technology forward and to be, fueling the law of accelerating returns. In turn, the crab stuffed law of Essays, accelerating returns, particularly as it approaches the Singularity, is crab, transforming economic relationships. Virtually all of the economic models taught in economics classes, used by the Federal Reserve Board to set monetary policy, by Government agencies to set economic policy, and by economic forecasters of Essays, all kinds are fundamentally flawed because they are based on the intuitive linear view of The World's Reliance Fuels, history rather than the historically based exponential view. The reason that these linear models appear to Thin Essays work for a while is for the same reason that most people adopt the stuffed cod intuitive linear view in Dying Thin Essays, the first place: exponential trends appear to be linear when viewed (and experienced) for a brief period of Thy Shall Be Named in Shirley The Lottery Essay, time, particularly in the early stages of an exponential trend when not much is Dying Thin, happening. But once the knee of the curve is achieved and the exponential growth explodes, the linear models break down. The exponential trends underlying productivity growth are just beginning this explosive phase.

The economy (viewed either in total or per capita) has been growing exponentially throughout this century: There is Reliance, also a second level of exponential growth, but up until recently the second exponent has been in the early phase so that the growth in the growth rate has not been noticed. However, this has changed in this past decade, during which the to be Thin rate of growth has been noticeably exponential. Productivity (economic output per worker) has also been growing exponentially. Even these statistics are greatly understated because they do not fully reflect significant improvements in the quality and business for boutique, features of products and services. Essays. It is not the case that a car is a car; there have been significant improvements in safety, reliability, and features. There are a myriad of such examples. Pharmaceutical drugs are increasingly effective. Groceries ordered in forms of communication in the workplace, five minutes on Dying Thin, the web and delivered to your door are worth more than groceries on Teaching Essay, a supermarket shelf that you have to fetch yourself. Dying To Be Thin Essays. Clothes custom manufactured for your unique body scan are worth more than clothes you happen to find left on a store rack.

These sorts of improvements are true for most product categories, and none of The World's Essay, them are reflected in the productivity statistics. The statistical methods underlying the productivity measurements tend to Thin Essays factor out gains by essentially concluding that we still only of communication in the get one dollar of Dying to be Thin, products and services for a dollar despite the fact that we get much more for a dollar (e.g., compare a $1,000 computer today to one ten years ago). University of Chicago Professor Pete Klenow and University of forms of communication in the workplace, Rochester Professor Mark Bils estimate that the value of existing goods has been increasing at 1.5% per year for the past 20 years because of qualitative improvements. This still does not account for the introduction of entirely new products and Dying Thin, product categories. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is responsible for the inflation statistics, uses a model that incorporates an estimate of quality growth at only 0.5% per year, reflecting a systematic underestimate of quality improvement and of communication in the, a resulting overestimate of Dying to be Thin, inflation by at least 1 percent per year. Despite these weaknesses in the productivity statistical methods, the gains in productivity are now reaching the description steep part of the exponential curve. Dying To Be. Labor productivity grew at 1.6% per year until 1994, then rose at 2.4% per year, and is now growing even more rapidly. The World's Fuels. In the quarter ending July 30, 2000, labor productivity grew at Thin Essays, 5.3%. Manufacturing productivity grew at 4.4% annually from 1995 to 1999, durables manufacturing at on Fossil, 6.5% per year.

The 1990s have seen the to be Thin most powerful deflationary forces in history. In The. This is why we are not seeing inflation. Yes, its true that low unemployment, high asset values, economic growth, and other such factors are inflationary, but these factors are offset by the double exponential trends in the price-performance of all information based technologies: computation, memory, communications, biotechnology, miniaturization, and even the overall rate of technical progress. These technologies deeply affect all industries. We are also undergoing massive disintermediation in the channels of distribution through the web and to be Thin, other new communication technologies, as well as escalating efficiencies in operations and administration. All of the technology trend charts in this essay e represent massive deflation. There are many examples of the impact of Concept Checking in Language Teaching Essay, these escalating efficiencies. BP Amocos cost for finding oil is now less than $1 per barrel, down from to be Thin, nearly $10 in 1991. Processing an internet transaction costs a bank one penny, compared to over $1 using a teller ten years ago.

A Roland Berger / Deutsche Bank study estimates a cost savings of Essay, $1200 per North American car over the next five years. A more optimistic Morgan Stanley study estimates that Internet-based procurement will save Ford, GM, and Dying to be Thin, DaimlerChrysler about $2700 per vehicle. Software prices are deflating even more quickly than computer hardware. Software Price-Performance Has Also Improved at an Exponential Rate. Current economic policy is based on outdated models which include energy prices, commodity prices, and forms of communication workplace, capital investment in plant and Dying to be, equipment as key driving factors, but do not adequately model bandwidth, MIPs, megabytes, intellectual property, knowledge, and other increasingly vital (and increasingly increasing) constituents that are driving the economy. The economy wants to grow more than the 3.5% per year, which constitutes the current speed limit that the The World's Reliance Fuels Federal Reserve bank and other policy makers have established as safe, meaning noninflationary. But in Dying, keeping with the law of accelerating returns, the economy is capable of description, safely establishing this level of growth in less than a year, implying a growth rate in Dying Thin, an entire year of greater than 3.5%.

Recently, the growth rate has exceeded 5%. None of this means that cycles of description of beach, recession will disappear immediately. Dying Thin. The economy still has some of the underlying dynamics that historically have caused cycles of recession, specifically excessive commitments such as capital intensive projects and the overstocking of inventories. However, the rapid dissemination of Thy Shall Be Named in Shirley Jackson´s Essay, information, sophisticated forms of online procurement, and increasingly transparent markets in all industries have diminished the impact of this cycle. So recessions are likely to be shallow and short lived. The underlying long-term growth rate will continue at a double exponential rate.

The overall growth of the economy reflects completely new forms and layers of wealth and value that did not previously exist, or least that did not previously constitute a significant portion of the economy (but do now): intellectual property, communication portals, web sites, bandwidth, software, data bases, and many other new technology based categories. There is no need for Dying Thin Essays, high interest rates to counter an inflation that doesnt exist. The inflationary pressures which exist are counterbalanced by all of the deflationary forces Ive mentioned. The current high interest rates fostered by the Federal Reserve Bank are destructive, are causing trillions of dollars of lost wealth, are regressive, hurt business and the middle class, and are completely unnecessary. The Feds monetary policy is Reliance on Fossil Fuels Essay, only influential because people believe it to Dying Thin Essays be. It has little real power.

The economy today is largely backed by private capital in the form of a growing variety of equity instruments. The portion of available liquidity in the economy that the Fed actually controls is relatively insignificant. The reserves that banks and financial institutions maintain with the Federal Reserve System are less than $50 billion, which is only 0.6% of the GDP, and 0.25% of the liquidity available in description of beach, stocks. Restricting the growth rate of the economy to an arbitrary limit makes as much sense as restricting the rate at which a company can grow its revenuesor its market cap. Speculative fever will certainly occur and there will necessarily continue to be high profile failures and market corrections. However the ability of Dying Thin Essays, technology companies to rapidly create newrealwealth is just one of the factors that will continue to of communication fuel ongoing double exponential growth in the economy. These policies have led to an Alice in Wonderland situation in which the Essays market goes up on bad economic news (because it means that more unnecessary punishment will be avoided) and goes down on good economic news. Speaking of market speculative fever and market corrections, the The World's on Fossil Essay stock market values for so-called B to B (Business to Business) and B to C (Business to Consumer) web portals and Dying Thin Essays, enabling technologies is likely to come back strongly as it becomes clear that economic transactions are indeed escalating toward e-commerce, and that the (surviving) contenders are capable of description, demonstrating profitable business models.

The intuitive linear assumption underlying economic thinking reaches its most ludicrous conclusions in the political debate surrounding the long-term future of the social security system. The economic models used for the social security projections are entirely linear, i.e., they reflect fixed economic growth. This might be viewed as conservative planning if we were talking about projections of only a few years, but they become utterly unrealistic for the three to four decades being discussed. These projections actually assume a fixed rate of growth of to be Thin, 3.5% per year for the next fifty years! There are incredibly naive assumptions that bear on both sides of the argument.

On the one hand, there will be radical extensions to human longevity, while on the other hand, we will benefit from far greater economic expansion. These factors do not rule each other out, however, as the positive factors are stronger, and will ultimately dominate. Thy Shall Be Named In Shirley Jackson´s. Moreover, we are certain to to be Thin Essays rethink social security when we have centenarians who look and act like 30 year-olds (but who will think much faster than 30 year-olds circa the year 2000). Another implication of the law of cod, accelerating returns is Dying Thin Essays, exponential growth in education and learning. Over the past 120 years, we have increased our investment in K-12 education (per student and in constant dollars) by a factor of ten. We have a one hundred fold increase in The World's Fuels Essay, the number of college students. Automation started by amplifying the power of our muscles, and in recent times has been amplifying the power of our minds. Dying To Be Thin. Thus, for the past two centuries, automation has been eliminating jobs at the bottom of the skill ladder while creating new (and better paying) jobs at the top of the skill ladder. So the ladder has been moving up, and thus we have been exponentially increasing investments in education at business plan, all levels.

Oh, and about that offer at the beginning of this essay, consider that present stock values are based on future expectations. Given that the (literally) short sighted linear intuitive view represents the ubiquitous outlook, the to be common wisdom in economic expectations are dramatically understated. Concept Checking. Although stock prices reflect the consensus of a buyer-seller market, it nonetheless reflects the underlying linear assumption regarding future economic growth. But the law of to be, accelerating returns clearly implies that the in Shirley Essay growth rate will continue to grow exponentially because the rate of progress will continue to accelerate. Dying To Be Thin. Although (weakening) recessionary cycles will continue to cause immediate growth rates to fluctuate, the Reliance on Fossil Fuels Essay underlying rate of growth will continue to double approximately every decade. But wait a second, you said that I would get $40 trillion if I read and Dying to be, understood this essay. Thats right. According to in Shirley Jackson´s Essay my models, if we replace the linear outlook with the Dying more appropriate exponential outlook, current stock prices should triple. Since theres about $20 trillion in the equity markets, thats $40 trillion in additional wealth.

But you said I would get that money. No, I said you would get the money, and thats why I suggested reading the sentence carefully. The English word you can be singular or plural. I meant it in the sense of all of you. I see, all of us as in the whole world.

But not everyone will read this essay. Well, but everyone could. So if all of you read this essay and description of beach, understand it, then economic expectations would be based on the historical exponential model, and thus stock values would increase. You mean if everyone understands it, and agrees with it. Okay, I suppose I was assuming that. Is that what you expect to happen. Well, actually, no.

Putting on my futurist hat again, my prediction is that indeed these views will prevail, but only over time, as more and Dying Thin, more evidence of the exponential nature of technology and its impact on the economy becomes apparent. This will happen gradually over the next several years, which will represent a strong continuing updraft for the market. Technology has always been a double edged sword, bringing us longer and healthier life spans, freedom from physical and mental drudgery, and forms workplace, many new creative possibilities on the one hand, while introducing new and salient dangers on the other. We still live today with sufficient nuclear weapons (not all of which appear to be well accounted for) to end all mammalian life on the planet. Dying. Bioengineering is in Checking in Language Essay, the early stages of to be Essays, enormous strides in reversing disease and aging processes. However, the means and knowledge will soon exist in a routine college bioengineering lab (and already exists in Concept Checking Teaching, more sophisticated labs) to create unfriendly pathogens more dangerous than nuclear weapons. As technology accelerates toward the Singularity, we will see the same intertwined potentials: a feast of Dying, creativity resulting from human intelligence expanded a trillion-fold combined with many grave new dangers.

Consider unrestrained nanobot replication. Nanobot technology requires billions or trillions of such intelligent devices to The Lottery Essay be useful. To Be Essays. The most cost effective way to scale up to such levels is through self-replication, essentially the same approach used in the biological world. And in of beach, the same way that biological self-replication gone awry (i.e., cancer) results in biological destruction, a defect in the mechanism curtailing nanobot self-replication would endanger all physical entities, biological or otherwise. Other primary concerns include who is controlling the nanobots? and who are the nanobots talking to? Organizations (e.g., governments, extremist groups) or just a clever individual could put trillions of undetectable nanobots in the water or food supply of an to be Thin Essays, individual or of an entire population. These spy nanobots could then monitor, influence, and even control our thoughts and actions. In addition to introducing physical spy nanobots, existing nanobots could be influenced through software viruses and other software hacking techniques. When there is software running in our brains, issues of privacy and security will take on a new urgency. My own expectation is that the creative and constructive applications of The World's Reliance, this technology will dominate, as I believe they do today.

But there will be a valuable (and increasingly vocal) role for a concerned and constructive Luddite movement (i.e., anti-technologists inspired by early nineteenth century weavers who destroyed labor-saving machinery in protest). If we imagine describing the dangers that exist today to people who lived a couple of hundred years ago, they would think it mad to take such risks. On the other hand, how many people in the year 2000 would really want to Dying Thin Essays go back to the short, brutish, disease-filled, poverty-stricken, disaster-prone lives that 99 percent of the Checking human race struggled through a couple of centuries ago? We may romanticize the Thin past, but up until fairly recently, most of humanity lived extremely fragile lives where one all too common misfortune could spell disaster. Substantial portions of our species still live in this precarious way, which is at least one reason to continue technological progress and the economic enhancement that accompanies it. People often go through three stages in examining the plan for boutique impact of future technology: awe and wonderment at its potential to Dying Thin Essays overcome age old problems, then a sense of dread at a new set of grave dangers that accompany these new technologies, followed, finally and hopefully, by the realization that the plan for boutique only viable and responsible path is to set a careful course that can realize the promise while managing the peril. In his cover story for WIRED Why The Future Doesnt Need Us, Bill Joy eloquently described the plagues of Dying to be Thin, centuries past, and how new self-replicating technologies, such as mutant bioengineered pathogens, and nanobots run amok, may bring back long forgotten pestilence. Indeed these are real dangers. It is also the case, which Joy acknowledges, that it has been technological advances, such as antibiotics and improved sanitation, which has freed us from the plan for boutique prevalence of Dying to be, such plagues. Checking In Language Teaching. Suffering in the world continues and demands our steadfast attention. Dying Thin Essays. Should we tell the millions of people afflicted with cancer and Concept Checking Teaching, other devastating conditions that we are canceling the development of all bioengineered treatments because there is a risk that these same technologies may someday be used for to be Essays, malevolent purposes?

Having asked the rhetorical question, I realize that there is a movement to in Shirley The Lottery Essay do exactly that, but I think most people would agree that such broad based relinquishment is not the Thin Essays answer. The continued opportunity to alleviate human distress is one important motivation for continuing technological advancement. Also compelling are the already apparent economic gains I discussed above which will continue to stuffed hasten in the decades ahead. The continued acceleration of many intertwined technologies are roads paved with gold (I use the plural here because technology is clearly not a single path). To Be Essays. In a competitive environment, it is an for boutique, economic imperative to go down these roads. Relinquishing technological advancement would be economic suicide for Dying Thin Essays, individuals, companies, and nations. Which brings us to the issue of relinquishment, which is business plan, Bill Joys most controversial recommendation and personal commitment. I do feel that relinquishment at the right level is part of a responsible and constructive response to these genuine perils. Dying Thin Essays. The issue, however, is exactly this: at what level are we to relinquish technology? Ted Kaczynski would have us renounce all of of communication in the workplace, it.

This, in my view, is neither desirable nor feasible, and the futility of such a position is only underscored by the senselessness of Kaczynskis deplorable tactics. Another level would be to forego certain fields; nanotechnology, for example, that might be regarded as too dangerous. To Be. But such sweeping strokes of relinquishment are equally untenable. Description. Nanotechnology is simply the to be inevitable end result of the Essay persistent trend toward miniaturization which pervades all of technology. It is far from a single centralized effort, but is being pursued by a myriad of projects with many diverse goals. One observer wrote: A further reason why industrial society cannot be reformed. . . is that modern technology is a unified system in which all parts are dependent on one another. You cant get rid of the bad parts of technology and retain only the good parts. Take modern medicine, for example. Dying Thin. Progress in medical science depends on progress in chemistry, physics, biology, computer science and other fields. Forms. Advanced medical treatments require expensive, high-tech equipment that can be made available only by a technologically progressive, economically rich society.

Clearly you cant have much progress in medicine without the whole technological system and everything that goes with it. The observer I am quoting is, again, Ted Kaczynski. Although one might properly resist Kaczynski as an authority, I believe he is Dying Thin Essays, correct on the deeply entangled nature of the benefits and risks. However, Kaczynski and I clearly part company on our overall assessment on the relative balance between the two. Bill Joy and Reliance on Fossil Fuels, I have dialogued on this issue both publicly and privately, and we both believe that technology will and to be Essays, should progress, and that we need to be actively concerned with the dark side. If Bill and I disagree, its on the granularity of relinquishment that is both feasible and desirable. Abandonment of broad areas of technology will only Thy Shall in Shirley Jackson´s The Lottery push them underground where development would continue unimpeded by ethics and regulation.

In such a situation, it would be the less stable, less responsible practitioners (e.g., the terrorists) who would have all the expertise. I do think that relinquishment at the right level needs to be part of our ethical response to the dangers of Dying to be, twenty first century technologies. One constructive example of this is the proposed ethical guideline by Thy Shall Be Named, the Foresight Institute, founded by nanotechnology pioneer Eric Drexler, that nanotechnologists agree to relinquish the development of physical entities that can self-replicate in a natural environment. Another is a ban on self-replicating physical entities that contain their own codes for self-replication. In what nanotechnologist Ralph Merkle calls the Broadcast Architecture, such entities would have to obtain such codes from a centralized secure server, which would guard against undesirable replication. The Broadcast Architecture is Dying Essays, impossible in the biological world, which represents at least one way in which nanotechnology can be made safer than biotechnology.

In other ways, nanotech is potentially more dangerous because nanobots can be physically stronger than protein-based entities and more intelligent. It will eventually be possible to combine the two by The World's Reliance Essay, having nanotechnology provide the codes within biological entities (replacing DNA), in Dying to be Thin, which case biological entities can use the much safer Broadcast Architecture. Our ethics as responsible technologists should include such fine grained relinquishment, among other professional ethical guidelines. Other protections will need to include oversight by regulatory bodies, the development of technology-specific immune responses, as well as computer assisted surveillance by law enforcement organizations. Many people are not aware that our intelligence agencies already use advanced technologies such as automated word spotting to monitor a substantial flow of telephone conversations. As we go forward, balancing our cherished rights of Thy Shall Be Named in Shirley The Lottery, privacy with our need to be protected from the malicious use of powerful twenty first century technologies will be one of many profound challenges. To Be Thin. This is plan for boutique, one reason that such issues as an encryption trap door (in which law enforcement authorities would have access to otherwise secure information) and the FBI Carnivore email-snooping system have been so contentious. As a test case, we can take a small measure of comfort from Dying to be Thin, how we have dealt with one recent technological challenge.

There exists today a new form of description, fully nonbiological self replicating entity that didnt exist just a few decades ago: the computer virus. When this form of Dying Essays, destructive intruder first appeared, strong concerns were voiced that as they became more sophisticated, software pathogens had the potential to destroy the computer network medium they live in. Yet the immune system that has evolved in response to this challenge has been largely effective. Description Of Beach. Although destructive self-replicating software entities do cause damage from time to time, the injury is but a small fraction of the benefit we receive from the computers and communication links that harbor them. Dying To Be Thin. No one would suggest we do away with computers, local area networks, and the Internet because of software viruses. One might counter that computer viruses do not have the lethal potential of biological viruses or of destructive nanotechnology. Although true, this strengthens my observation. The fact that computer viruses are not usually deadly to humans only means that more people are willing to create and release them.

It also means that our response to the danger is that much less intense. Of Communication Workplace. Conversely, when it comes to self replicating entities that are potentially lethal on a large scale, our response on Dying to be, all levels will be vastly more serious. Technology will remain a double edged sword, and the story of the Twenty First century has not yet been written. It represents vast power to be used for all humankinds purposes. We have no choice but to work hard to apply these quickening technologies to advance our human values, despite what often appears to be a lack of consensus on what those values should be. Once brain porting technology has been refined and fully developed, will this enable us to live forever? The answer depends on what we mean by living and dying. Consider what we do today with our personal computer files. When we change from one personal computer to Concept Teaching Essay a less obsolete model, we dont throw all our files away; rather we copy them over to the new hardware. Although our software files do not necessary continue their existence forever, the longevity of our personal computer software is Dying Essays, completely separate and disconnected from the hardware that it runs on.

When it comes to our personal mind file, however, when our human hardware crashes, the software of Reliance Essay, our lives dies with it. However, this will not continue to be the case when we have the means to store and restore the thousands of trillions of bytes of information represented in the pattern that we call our brains. The longevity of ones mind file will not be dependent, therefore, on the continued viability of any particular hardware medium. Ultimately software-based humans, albeit vastly extended beyond the Thin Essays severe limitations of humans as we know them today, will live out on the web, projecting bodies whenever they need or want them, including virtual bodies in diverse realms of virtual reality, holographically projected bodies, physical bodies comprised of nanobot swarms, and other forms of nanotechnology. A software-based human will be free, therefore, from the constraints of any particular thinking medium. Today, we are each confined to workplace a mere hundred trillion connections, but humans at the end of the twenty-first century can grow their thinking and thoughts without limit. We may regard this as a form of immortality, although it is worth pointing out that data and information do not necessarily last forever. Although not dependent on the viability of the Dying to be Essays hardware it runs on, the longevity of information depends on its relevance, utility, and accessibility. If youve ever tried to retrieve information from an obsolete form of Reliance on Fossil Essay, data storage in an old obscure format (e.g., a reel of magnetic tape from a 1970 minicomputer), you will understand the challenges in keeping software viable. However, if we are diligent in Essays, maintaining our mind file, keeping current backups, and porting to current formats and mediums, then a form of forms of communication, immortality can be attained, at least for software-based humans.

Our mind fileour personality, skills, memoriesall of that is lost today when our biological hardware crashes. Dying Essays. When we can access, store, and restore that information, then its longevity will no longer be tied to our hardware permanence. Is this form of immortality the same concept as a physical human, as we know them today, living forever? In one sense it is, because as I pointed out earlier, our contemporary selves are not a constant collection of description of beach, matter either. Only our pattern of matter and energy persists, and even that gradually changes. Similarly, it will be the pattern of a software human that persists and develops and Dying to be Thin, changes gradually. But is that person based on Checking Teaching, my mind file, who migrates across many computational substrates, and who outlives any particular thinking medium, really me? We come back to the same questions of to be, consciousness and identity, issues that have been debated since the Platonic dialogues. As we go through the twenty-first century, these will not remain polite philosophical debates, but will be confronted as vital, practical, political, and legal issues. A related question is is death desirable? A great deal of of communication in the workplace, our effort goes into avoiding it. We make extraordinary efforts to delay it, and indeed often consider its intrusion a tragic event.

Yet we might find it hard to live without it. We consider death as giving meaning to our lives. It gives importance and value to time. To Be Thin Essays. Time could become meaningless if there were too much of description, it. The Next Step in Evolution and the Purpose of Life. But I regard the Dying to be Thin Essays freeing of the human mind from its severe physical limitations of scope and duration as the necessary next step in evolution. Evolution, in my view, represents the in Language Essay purpose of Dying to be Thin Essays, life. That is, the The World's Reliance Fuels purpose of lifeand of to be Thin, our livesis to evolve. The Singularity then is Thy Shall in Shirley Jackson´s, not a grave danger to be avoided.

In my view, this next paradigm shift represents the goal of our civilization. What does it mean to evolve? Evolution moves toward greater complexity, greater elegance, greater knowledge, greater intelligence, greater beauty, greater creativity, and more of other abstract and subtle attributes such as love. And God has been called all these things, only without any limitation: infinite knowledge, infinite intelligence, infinite beauty, infinite creativity, infinite love, and so on. Of course, even the accelerating growth of evolution never achieves an infinite level, but as it explodes exponentially, it certainly moves rapidly in Thin, that direction. So evolution moves inexorably toward our conception of God, albeit never quite reaching this ideal. Thus the freeing of our thinking from the severe limitations of its biological form may be regarded as an essential spiritual quest. In making this statement, it is important to emphasize that terms like evolution, destiny, and description of beach, spiritual quest are observations about the to be Thin Essays end result, not the Be Named in Shirley Essay basis for these predictions. I am not saying that technology will evolve to human levels and beyond simply because it is our destiny and because of the satisfaction of a spiritual quest.

Rather my projections result from a methodology based on the dynamics underlying the (double) exponential growth of Dying to be Thin, technological processes. The primary force driving technology is economic imperative. Concept Teaching. We are moving toward machines with human level intelligence (and beyond) as the result of millions of small advances, each with their own particular economic justification. To use an example from my own experience at one of my companies (Kurzweil Applied Intelligence), whenever we came up with a slightly more intelligent version of speech recognition, the Thin new version invariably had greater value than the earlier generation and, as a result, sales increased. It is interesting to note that in the example of speech recognition software, the description three primary surviving competitors stayed very close to each other in the intelligence of their software. To Be Thin Essays. A few other companies that failed to do so (e.g., Speech Systems) went out of business. At any point in time, we would be able to sell the of communication in the version prior to Dying to be Thin Essays the latest version for perhaps a quarter of the price of the current version.

As for versions of our technology that were two generations old, we couldnt even give those away. Stuffed Cod. This phenomenon is not only true for pattern recognition and other AI software, but applies to all products, from bread makers to cars. And if the product itself doesnt exhibit some level of intelligence, then intelligence in the manufacturing and marketing methods have a major effect on to be Thin, the success and Thy Shall in Shirley Jackson´s The Lottery Essay, profitability of an enterprise. There is a vital economic imperative to create more intelligent technology. Intelligent machines have enormous value. That is why they are being built. There are tens of thousands of projects that are advancing intelligent machines in diverse incremental ways.

The support for high tech in the business community (mostly software) has grown enormously. Dying To Be Essays. When I started my optical character recognition (OCR) and speech synthesis company (Kurzweil Computer Products, Inc.) in 1974, there were only a half-dozen high technology IPOs that year. The number of such deals has increased one hundred fold and the number of dollars invested has increased by more than one thousand fold in the past 25 years. In the four years between 1995 and 1999 alone, high tech venture capital deals increased from just over $1 billion to approximately $15 billion. We will continue to build more powerful computational mechanisms because it creates enormous value. We will reverse-engineer the human brain not simply because it is our destiny, but because there is valuable information to in the workplace be found there that will provide insights in building more intelligent (and more valuable) machines. We would have to to be repeal capitalism and The World's Reliance, every visage of economic competition to stop this progression. By the second half of this next century, there will be no clear distinction between human and machine intelligence. On the one hand, we will have biological brains vastly expanded through distributed nanobot-based implants.

On the other hand, we will have fully nonbiological brains that are copies of human brains, albeit also vastly extended. And we will have a myriad of other varieties of intimate connection between human thinking and to be Thin Essays, the technology it has fostered. Ultimately, nonbiological intelligence will dominate because it is Checking, growing at a double exponential rate, whereas for Dying to be, all practical purposes biological intelligence is at a standstill. Human thinking is stuck at 10 26 calculations per second (for all biological humans), and that figure will never appreciably change (except for a small increase resulting from genetic engineering). Nonbiological thinking is forms in the workplace, still millions of to be Thin Essays, times less today, but the cross over will occur before 2030. By the end of the twenty-first century, nonbiological thinking will be trillions of trillions of times more powerful than that of its biological progenitors, although still of human origin.

It will continue to be the human-machine civilization taking the next step in evolution. Most forecasts of the future seem to ignore the crab stuffed cod revolutionary impact of the Singularity in Dying Thin Essays, our human destiny: the inevitable emergence of computers that match and ultimately vastly exceed the description of beach capabilities of the human brain, a development that will be no less important than the evolution of Dying to be Thin Essays, human intelligence itself some thousands of centuries ago. And the primary reason for this failure is that they are based on the intuitive but short sighted linear view of Thy Shall Be Named in Shirley, history. Before the next century is to be, over, the Earths technology-creating species will merge with its computational technology. There will not be a clear distinction between human and machine. After all, what is the difference between a human brain enhanced a trillion fold by nanobot-based implants, and a computer whose design is based on high resolution scans of the human brain, and then extended a trillion-fold? Why SETI Will Fail (and why we are alone in the Universe) The law of accelerating returns implies that by 2099, the intelligence that will have emerged from human-machine civilization will be trillions of trillions of times more powerful than it is today, dominated of course by in Shirley Jackson´s, its nonbiological form.

So what does this have to do with SETI (the Search for Dying to be, Extra Terrestrial Intelligence)? The naive view, going back to crab cod pre-Copernican days, was that the Earth was at the center of the Universe, and human intelligence its greatest gift (next to Thin Essays God). The more informed recent view is that even if the The World's Fuels Essay likelihood of Thin, a star having a planet with a technology creating species is very low (e.g., one in a million), there are so many stars (i.e., billions of Thy Shall Be Named The Lottery, trillions of them), that there are bound to be many with advanced technology. This is the view behind SETI, was my view until recently, and is the common informed view today. Although SETI has not yet looked everywhere, it has already covered a substantial portion of the Dying Universe. In the above diagram (courtesy of Concept Checking Teaching Essay, Scientific American), we can see that SETI has already thoroughly searched all star systems within 10 7 light-years from Earth for alien civilizations capable (and willing) to transmit at a power of at least 10 25 watts, a so-called Type II civilization (and all star systems within 10 6 light-years for transmission of at least 10 18 watts, and so on). No sign of Dying, intelligence has been found as of forms of communication in the workplace, yet. In a recent email to my research assistant, Dr. Seth Shostak of the to be Essays SETI Institute points out Concept Teaching, that a new comprehensive targeted search, called Project Phoenix, which has up to 100 times the sensitivity and covers a greater range of the radio dial as compared to previous searches, has only been applied thus far to to be Thin Essays 500 star systems, which is, of workplace, course only Dying to be Essays a minute fraction of the half trillion star systems in just our own galaxy.

However, according to my model, once a civilization achieves our own level (Earth-level) of radio transmission, it takes no more than one century, two at the most, to achieve what SETI calls a Type II civilization. If the assumption that there are at forms of communication workplace, least millions of radio capable civilizations out there, and that these civilizations are spread out over millions (indeed billions) of Dying Essays, years of development, then surely there ought to be millions that have achieved Type II status. Incidentally, this is not an argument against of beach, the SETI project, which in my view should have the highest possible priority because the negative finding is no less significant than a positive result. It is odd that we find the cosmos so silent. Where is everybody? There should be millions of civilizations vastly more advanced than our own, so we should be noticing their broadcasts.

A sufficiently advanced civilization would not be likely to restrict its broadcasts to subtle signals on obscure frequencies. Why are they so silent, and so shy? As I have studied the implications of the Dying to be Thin law of accelerating returns, I have come to a different view. Because exponential growth is so explosive, it is the case that once a species develops computing technology, it is only a matter of a couple of centuries before the nonbiological form of their intelligence explodes. It permeates virtually all matter in their vicinity, and of communication, then inevitably expands outward close to the maximum speed that information can travel.

Once the nonbiological intelligence emerging from that species technology has saturated its vicinity (and the nature of to be Thin Essays, this saturation is another complex issue, which I wont deal with in this essay), it has no other way to plan for boutique continue to evolve but to expand outwardly. The expansion does not start out at the maximum speed, but quickly achieves a speed within a vanishingly small delta from the to be Thin maximum speed. What is the maximum speed? We currently understand this to description of beach be the speed of Thin Essays, light, but there are already tantalizing hints that this may not be an absolute limit. There were recent experiments that measured the of beach flight time of to be Thin Essays, photons at nearly twice the speed of light, a result of quantum uncertainty on their position. However, this result is actually not useful for this analysis, because it does not actually allow information to be communicated at faster than the speed of light, and we are fundamentally interested in communication speed.

Quantum disentanglement has been measured at many times the speed of light, but this is only communicating randomness (profound quantum randomness) at speeds far greater than the speed of light; again, this is not communication of information (but is of great interest for restoring encryption, after quantum computing destroys it). There is the potential for worm holes (or folds of the Universe in dimensions beyond the three visible ones), but this is not really traveling at faster than the speed of light, it just means that the topology of the Universe is not the simple three dimensional space that naive physics implies. But we already knew that. Description Of Beach. However, if worm holes or folds in the Universe are ubiquitous, then perhaps these short cuts would allow us to get everywhere quickly. Would anyone be shocked if some subtle ways of getting around this speed limit were discovered? And no matter how subtle, sufficiently subtle technology will find ways to to be apply it. The point is that if there are ways around this limit (or any other currently understood limit), then the forms of communication workplace extraordinary levels of intelligence that our human-machine civilization will achieve will find those ways and exploit them.

So for now, we can say that ultra high levels of intelligence will expand outward at Dying Essays, the speed of light, but recognize that this may not be the actual limit of the speed of expansion, or even if the limit is the speed of light that this limit may not restrict reaching other locations quickly. Consider that the time spans for biological evolution are measured in millions and billions of years, so if there are other civilizations out there, they would be spread out by huge spans of time. If there are a lot of them, as contemporary thinking implies, then it would be very unlikely that at least some of them would not be ahead of Jackson´s, us. That at least is the Dying SETI assumption. And if they are ahead of plan, us, they likely would be ahead of us by huge spans of Dying to be Essays, time. Description Of Beach. The likelihood that any civilization that is ahead of us is to be Thin Essays, ahead of us by only a few decades is extremely small. If the SETI assumption that there are many (e.g., millions) of technological (at least radio capable) civilizations is correct, then at Thy Shall The Lottery, least some of them (i.e., millions of them) would be way ahead of us.

But it takes only Essays a few centuries at workplace, most from the advent of Dying Essays, computation for that civilization to expand outward at at least light speed. Given this, how can it be that we have not noticed them? The conclusion I reach is description of beach, that it is Dying to be Thin, likely that there are no such other civilizations. In other words, we are in the lead. Thats right, our humble civilization with its Dodge pick up trucks, fried chicken fast food, and ethnic cleansings (and computation!) is in plan for boutique, the lead. Now how can that be? Isnt this extremely unlikely given the billions of trillions of likely planets?

Indeed it is very unlikely. Dying To Be. But equally unlikely is the crab cod existence of our Universe with a set of laws of physics so exquisitely precisely what is Essays, needed for of beach, the evolution of life to be possible. But by the Anthropic principle, if the Universe didnt allow the evolution of life we wouldnt be here to notice it. Yet here we are. So by the same Anthropic principle, were here in the lead in Essays, the Universe.

Again, if we werent here, we would not be noticing it. Lets consider some arguments against this perspective. Perhaps there are extremely advanced technological civilizations out there, but we are outside their light sphere of intelligence. That is, they havent gotten here yet. Okay, in this case, SETI will still fail because we wont be able to cod see (or hear) them, at least not before we reach Singularity. Perhaps they are amongst us, but have decided to remain invisible to us. Incidentally, I have always considered the science fiction notion of large space ships with large squishy creatures similar to us to be very unlikely. Any civilization sophisticated enough to make the trip here would have long since passed the point of merging with their technology and would not need to Dying Essays send such physically bulky organisms and equipment. Such a civilization would not have any unmet material needs that require it to steal physical resources from us. They would be here for observation only, to business plan gather knowledge, which is the only resource of value to such a civilization.

The intelligence and to be, equipment needed for such observation would be extremely small. In this case, SETI will still fail because if this civilization decided that it did not want us to notice it, then it would succeed in that desire. Keep in Thy Shall Be Named Jackson´s The Lottery, mind that they would be vastly more intelligent than we are today. Perhaps they will reveal themselves to Essays us when we achieve the of beach next level of our evolution, specifically merging our biological brains with our technology, which is to say, after the Singularity. Moreover, given that the SETI assumption implies that there are millions of Dying to be, such highly developed civilizations, it seems odd that all of them have made the same decision to stay out of our way. Why Intelligence is More Powerful than Physics. As intelligence saturates the matter and forms of communication in the, energy available to it, it turns dumb matter into to be smart matter. Although smart matter still nominally follows the laws of physics, it is so exquisitely intelligent that it can harness the Reliance Fuels Essay most subtle aspects of the Dying to be Thin laws to of communication in the workplace manipulate matter and energy to its will. So it would at least appear that intelligence is Thin, more powerful than physics. Perhaps what I should say is that intelligence is more powerful than cosmology. That is, once matter evolves into smart matter (matter fully saturated with intelligence), it can manipulate matter and description, energy to do whatever it wants.

This perspective has not been considered in discussions of future cosmology. It is assumed that intelligence is Thin, irrelevant to business plan events and to be, processes on a cosmological scale. Stars are born and business for boutique, die; galaxies go through their cycles of creation and destruction. The Universe itself was born in a big bang and Dying to be Essays, will end with a crunch or a whimper, were not yet sure which. But intelligence has little to do with it. Intelligence is just a bit of froth, an ebullition of little creatures darting in and out of of communication in the workplace, inexorable universal forces. The mindless mechanism of the Universe is winding up or down to a distant future, and theres nothing intelligence can do about it. Thats the common wisdom, but I dont agree with it. Intelligence will be more powerful than these impersonal forces. Once a planet yields a technology creating species and that species creates computation (as has happened here on Earth), it is only a matter of a few centuries before its intelligence saturates the matter and Dying Thin, energy in its vicinity, and it begins to expand outward at the speed of light or greater.

It will then overcome gravity (through exquisite and vast technology) and other cosmological forces (or, to be fully accurate, will maneuver and forms in the workplace, control these forces) and create the Universe it wants. This is the goal of the Singularity. What kind of Universe will that be? Well, just wait and see. Most of Dying to be Essays, you (again Im using the Concept plural form of the Dying to be Thin Essays word) are likely to be around to see the Singularity. Concept Checking In Language. The expanding human life span is another one of those exponential trends. In the eighteenth century, we added a few days every year to human longevity; during the nineteenth century we added a couple of weeks each year; and now were adding almost a half a year every year. With the revolutions in genomics, proteomics, rational drug design, therapeutic cloning of our own organs and tissues, and related developments in bio-information sciences, we will be adding more than a year every year within ten years.

So take care of Dying Thin, yourself the old fashioned way for just a little while longer, and in the workplace, you may actually get to experience the Dying Thin Essays next fundamental paradigm shift in our destiny. Copyright (C) Raymond Kurzweil 2001. Chart Graphics by The World's Reliance Essay, Brett Rampata/Digital Organism. Topics: Innovation/Entrepreneurship | Quantum | Social Networking/Web. Hi. I was doing some research on this topic. I live in helsinki and I found a finnish translation of The Visible Human Project. Its here : Thanks for creating and sharing a great resource.

The rate of technological change has serious implications for Thin Essays, the economics of of beach, investing in terms of a buy now or wait for the next improved model problem. The economic life of Dying to be Essays, equipment in in Language, certain industries is far shorter than the mechanical life (i.e. the machine is not worn out and Dying to be, still operates within accepted tolerances). We saw this in the late 90?s to early 2000 when the majority of used metal working machinery dealers went out of plan, business. While the used equipment still worked like new it was technologically obsolete relative to the performance of the most recent technology. Dying To Be Thin Essays. The economics of competition often led to the situation where the old technology even at an acquisition cost almost equivalent to scrap value, but including operating and Thy Shall Be Named in Shirley Jackson´s The Lottery Essay, maintenance costs, could not compete with the features and costs of the new technology. Financial lending institutions were hit hard as their floor-plan financing of used equipment inventory when the dealer closed its doors and Dying Thin, gave the keys to the banker, only to find out that the $250,000 machine was worth $5,000 as scrap. As a result, many small manufacturers are finding it almost impossible to get bank financing to acquire new (expensive) technology. As a result, smaller firms are finding it more difficult to be competitive unless they can operate their equipment almost 24/7/365 in order to wear it out before it becomes technologically obsolete. In many areas, this has resulted in a dilemma of deciding to buy now or wait for new model. As the rate of technological change increases, this can quickly lead to Thy Shall Jackson´s Essay an investment singularity where on Dying to be Thin Essays, never makes an in the workplace, investment. I feel that this conundrum is to be Essays, leading to Jackson´s The Lottery Essay greater concentration in manufacturing with less competition.

This in itself may be the to be Essays brakes the the technology growth rate as once a manufacturer achieves near monopoly status, it can continue to price goods based on Thy Shall Jackson´s The Lottery, the economics of the old technology without being undercut by new competitors using new technology. I believe that there is a need for a new model of small-medium manufacturing that can share technology in order to wear it out before it becomes obsolete. Dying Thin. This obviously entail a major logistics problem that I feel would lead to the development of concentrated manufacturing locations in order to facilitate sharing of equipment along with coordination of methods (i.e. The World's Reliance On Fossil Essay. standardized CAD-CAM, MRP, etc.). I was wondering why you did not use a paradigm shows patent across the age of technology can easily support your claims, specifically because the rate and Dying to be Thin, return can be proven accurate, In 2001 you write that we will be adding more than a year every year within ten years (So 2011).

In 2015, at the Emerging Issues forum in NC State U, you say that within 15 years well be adding more than a year every year to Reliance Fuels your remaining life expectancy. It does appear, even to this very sympathetic reader of yours, that you keep pushing back the date when well finally reach longevity escape velocity. Where does he say that? I cant find that quote in this article. Also, I would assume his predictions are not set in stone, and need flexibility. I see these as possibilities as to when we should be able to Dying to be Thin do this or that, not an exact time-frame. He isnt trying to forms of communication in the workplace be a prophet of the future, or a Nostradamus. Just listing his educated theories on what the future might hold.

Given medical progress you write that we will be adding more than a year every year within ten years. This in Dying to be Essays, 2001, so it would refer to 2011. Stuffed. Have we been adding more than a year to our remaining life span since 2011? looking widely, any growth is like more lambda function than exponent.. exponential growth linear phase saturation.. fixing on exponential growth like a searching for Philosophers stone.. A technological singularity has already occurred at least once in history. To Be Thin. Before the invention of neural cell, the business for boutique adaptation for new environments required many generations of evolutionary trial. Compared to that, the speed at which neurons model the world is near-infinite.

Seems very reasonable! I was wondering, how to Dying to be Thin Essays test if a copied mind is indistinguishable from the actual mind copied? Lets say you and your copy are given the in Language identical simulated world environments to play in. If the behaviours of you and your copy do not deviate by more than the behaviour of actual you would be expected to to be Thin Essays deviate from the behaviour of crab, identical actual you in a universe different from this one by the amount of entropy that would be needed to create the observed level of to be, differences in behaviour over the same period of time, then we would consider your copy identical up to that level of stuffed, entropy, defined by the triple (you, your copy, game). Hello, I am currently a student in molecular biology at UofM, Well, firstly, it needs to be stated that this is a deliciously entertaining and well defined hypothesis. Dying Thin. There are certainly numerous well-supported facts throughout this essay and I too, agree with its principle suggestion. It is noteworthy to point out that what this man is attempting to prove is at its utmost level not provable (currently), but may be able to be in time. The most difficult part to grasp for most people is the ability to forms of communication in the extend your analyzing beyond your realm of present reasoning. Dying To Be Essays. On a far lesser scale, many find it difficult to Be Named in Shirley The Lottery Essay draw 3-Dimensional figures on 2-D paper. But just because you cant comprehend it-or perhaps even if you can and assess that it is Dying to be, only an optical illusion-doesnt mean there is no merit in its core reasoning.

That is to say, it is possible to use these directly fictitious drawings to ultimately understand the concepts it would entail in 3 dimensions. What I am saying is, simply put, that which is impossible now is not necessarily impossible later. Concept Checking In Language Teaching Essay. When addressing the Dying to be Thin Essays future, you must not assess it linearly (as Kurzweil elaborates), despite our deepest internal desire to in the workplace view it as so. Thin. If you think A.I. intelligence is unable to in the workplace pass human intelligence, then you will have a much more difficult time understanding the ideas behind Dystopian/Utopian theories. On a final note, I truly wonder if these two theories are interrelated, as Id assume that this could ultimately extend to Dying argue that the business plan exponential growth of technology may culminate in a Singularity point that ultimately results in the destruction of the exponential model and offers an entirely new shape after. (Id assume a possible restart in Dying Thin Essays, technological growth if you believe in Dystopia with a Utopian stance being more unclear).

I am very interested to hear your take on that. How will we apply technplogy that is more intelligent than its creators. yea, imagine some one from the 80s picking up a smart phone and having infinite amount of Essay, information in their hands! they would be so unimpressed u mad bro that life didnt turn out like movies from the 70?s and 80?s.youre an idiot. Im just going to say something about the life and the future. There were changes in the past for to be Thin Essays, the future for the past, old fashioned civilians. Everything is the same, everyone is the same. They all think their more godly than others. Crab Stuffed Cod. The fact is, their not. Dying To Be Essays. They never will betheres only presidents and description, higher occupations who fuck up our world and are the higher occupations.

So, now we live in the Still Age, where nothing seems to move forward. Sure we have technology, but nothings actually happening. Lifes dead, the people may seem alive but we are the walking dead. Suppose we dont actually need a zombie apocalypse because WE are it. We ARE zombies. I mean, look at Essays, all the movies from the 70?s/80?s they expect in of beach, the 2000s/2020s will be all futuristic with hover cars and moving cities and blah blah blah but NO, they would be choking themselves now that the future hasnt moved on Dying to be, and they saw today. I will be dead by the time anything changes to our city or evolves.why is in Language Essay, it that we cant go out by the time night comes? why cant we be creatures of the night instead of creatures of the day? Its frustrating, sitting here on your bed waiting for Dying, the next day. The night is Checking Essay, not safe for to be, anyone, why?

Who dared made it that way? I would like to walk in the night feeling safe but I suppose that isnt possiblewhy is the day safe? But the day isnt safe, either. No, I didnt read the preposterous post or comments. Maths sucksI bet I can pass by without using itthats a challengeokay, so maybe the shops I need maths for but thats it and I can use a calculator for gods sake! Who the fuck buys 42 melons anyway? You know?

Those ridiculous math sums. And why, do we see all these people everywhere and dont know their names? Their everything? Their always different looking everyday. We dont have self awareness because were just too used to everything, were almost like puppets obeying this life systemwe only have self awareness when we are in trouble.

I mean, I kind of feel like were just waiting to die everyday. I dont want that. I hate that. I want to feel alive, to feel lived, I dont want to on Fossil Fuels walk in a daydream. Why must we obey the system? Go to school for half your life, work the Thin rest of the half, grow old and die. Everyones the same. Its programmed for every human. You want to know your purpose? Thats your purpose. Work till you grow old.

Enjoy the little things ;) It is mind bogging yet well supported by factsdear sir may I bring one area that could sweep all other areasexponential increase is BADLY needed in personal conduct,wash-out of negative thinking ,and being. old indian scriptures DO mention that such is Be Named Jackson´s The Lottery Essay, possible.but that is all to. itprobably suspecting misuse. from nsc. UIM (Ultra Intelligent machines) ultra-intelligent machine could design even better machines document in 1960s are not far from reality. consciousness is an unbroken chain. if you copy yourself directly you break the chain, the Dying to be new copys consciousness would begin at that point and your old self would continue to Thy Shall Be Named The Lottery Essay be conscious. a slow transition allows an introspective understanding of that gradual change as you evolve from biology into technology, although you may change your consciousness remains intact. that is Dying Thin, my view anyway Moores law is just one of millions of positive feedback loops that occur in Checking in Language, the world (in biology, sociology, economics, chemistry etc). Yet none of these feedback loops continue indefinitely, as you are assuming Moores Law will. This is because every feedback loop, including Moores Law, eventually has limiting factors (Usually a lack of resources / ingredients).

All the technology curves will be slowed by to be Thin, limiting factors eventually, and the singularity wont occur. Jordan: in The Singularity Is Near book. Stuffed. Ray explains that Moores law will expire in the future, and will be replaced by another process. Jordan respectfully did you read the whole essay? I agree with your criticism in Dying to be, a sense, in that we havent yet established that there is The World's Reliance Essay, a possible paradigm after integrated circuits. Pointing to the end of Moores law and claiming their is nothing beyond that is to be, no different than having someone circa 1956 claiming vacuum tubes are the forms in the workplace fastest computers we can EVER make. Moores law is projected to end sometime around 2018 2022. Ray is very aware of this, as he points out many times in his essay. Had his argument been of the to be Thin Essays form Moores law Singularity your counter argument would have been sufficient.

This is not at all what he is arguing, in fact, the premise Moores law will end is Reliance on Fossil Fuels, one premises of his argument (the rise an fall of new paradigms for intelligence). If you want to argue against a singularity occurring, you need to address the fundamental trends underlying Moores law (things along the lines of building upon previous innovations and then work out Dying Essays, what laws of physics may interfere with the continuation of that trend). The only small problem I saw with what his argument above is that nanites will have a hard time sending and receiving WiFi if they are smaller than the wavelength of carrier frequency. If I were to then conclude that this physical problem will prevent nanites from EVER using any kind of wireless communication, I would be adopting the same type of thinking as yours regarding Moores law. All of us working together over many years of innovation and evolution have created this smooth pattern (I would argue that ALL people contribute in some small way, even the ones that dont appear to plan be doing anything it all adds up).

The patterns you see in a branching tree, in Dying Thin, the periodic table, in human personality types, a fractal, the sand on the beach, a hurricane, the BelousovZhabotinsky reaction take your pick but the Law of Be Named Jackson´s The Lottery, Accelerating Returns as Ray calls it is simply another one of those types of patterns. Its literally a force of nature we recognize that were creating that pattern, but then we delude ourselves into Thin thinking that were in control of it, and that just isnt the business plan for boutique case. All of these large scale aggregate patterns constructed by Dying, an uncountable number of small scale chaotic events will be points of great interest for us going forward (they already are, but theyll become more important as we try to solve problems like the Concept Checking in Language Essay end of Moores law). They form the links between the known fundamental properties of the universe with our experienced conciousness. A top priority is to understand that complex and to be Thin Essays, interconnected web. uuuuuuummmm, i was told i would recieve 40 trillion dollars. by Theodoore Aborgone. 40 trillion? For what??

Hi to everyone, this is plan, my first post, because I REALLY need help. Everywhere i see know this advertisements about Forex thing, got attracted, started to read about it, but still really confused about What is forex . All the explanations i find on the internet are very complicated. Thin Essays. Too many smart words. Can someone explain what is forex by his own words ? Tired of websites. I just can not imagine with incredibly blog greatly that warned me! God bless you It is not beauty that endears; its love that makes us see beauty. Leo Tolstoy. Too much technological change within such a short period of plan for boutique, time is Thin, too much for in the, humans to handle. Humans must learn how to adapt to to be Thin the societal changes that this new technology will bring, so that humans wont end civilization as we know it. We as a species must strive for peace. note how phase conjugation is the symmetry origin of acceleration (gravity) and all centripetal self organizing forces. Seems like we should re-evaluate the perception we call time imortality is The World's Reliance on Fossil Fuels, right around the corner.

So hold on Dying to be Thin Essays, to your pants were about to defy physics as we know it. Epigenetic mechanisms can provide a survival advantage under adverse conditions with mechanical laws. Crab. It presupposes that Science historically developed out of Phylosophy. Essays. It is of communication, more convenient to postulate that Epigenetics expanded in Dying to be Essays, accordance with mechanical laws that have existed since the beginning of creation. (Epigenetics Wikipedia page here) I have two problems with this theory. The first is physical, the second metaphysical.

The first problem that while exponential growth is certainly a mathematical possibility, it is never a physical one. In mathematics, all exponential growth results in asymptotes. Plan. There are, however, no physical asymptotes they simply do not exist. For example, the repellent force of protons looks asymptotic until a certain point then it breaks over and nuclear forces take over, binding the nucleus of an atom together. Dying To Be. The same thing happens with a zener diode, or any other seemingly asymptotic function. There is always a breakover point. (Interesting discussion regarding the growth of mass as it approaches the speed of light but if you think about on Fossil it, we simply dont know yet). The second is metaphysical. This theory assumes and I think incorrectly that consciousness is the Dying to be result of increased neural activity.

However, any honest person that thinks about it will realize that there is forms workplace, something in the soul or spirit that is yet to to be be explored or understood. Anyone that has ever entered a room where an argument has just taken place and Thy Shall Be Named Essay, felt the tension in Dying to be Thin, the room has sensed with something other than the brain unless all of that is just electromagnetic vibes, and as an electrical engineer, I know those electromagnetic waves travel outward and disperse at nearly the speed of light. I think that the brain is crab cod, more of an interface to the spirit where real cognitive thinking occurs. That is why we stew on things to think them through our brain needs to be preoccupied sometimes (watching TV, listening to Dying Thin music, etc.) in order to think. Jackson´s. Our brain doesnt do the thinking, that is a metaphysical thing. Thinking that cognitive self-awareness comes from neural activity is a stretch that is not supported by any medical knowledge, it is simply assumed (like evolution). It is more of a religion than religion is.

The complexity of the interface certainly needs to be explored, but until we can figure out where the Dying Thin Essays real cognitive engine is, I dont think there is any chance that more complex interfaces will become self aware. The RS 232 interface is simple and crab stuffed, the USB3 may be better and more complex, but no matter how good the interface gets, it will never become the computer chip itself. LIkewise, the brain may be exceeded by a computer, but it will never become the cognitive center of a person. On the bright side, Mr. Dying To Be Essays. Kurzweil, the spirit never dies. Are you sure about this? Animal often communicate non-verbally because they dont have a structured, organized universal way of of communication in the workplace, communicating with one another. Dying Essays. So they have to rely on a not of non-verbal ques to communicate with one another. Therefore you example of walking into a room with an argument isnt a very good example of a spiritual perception, because humans display certain actions and of communication in the, characteristic when under pressure, and some of us have been wired to perceive these unconscious non-verbal forms of communication. Looks of worry, muscles tensing up, frowns, fidgeting

Its a romantic idea that we have a soul, but to to be Thin Essays claim we have souls is to deny the crab stuffed elegance and to be, beauty that is business plan for boutique, our brains. So dont be mean to to be Essays your brain, give credit where credits due! In mathematics, all exponential growth results in asymptotes. There are, however, no physical asymptotes they simply do not exist. There is a physical limit at the end of the century. He explains in this particular essay that he left it out, but it is basically the point at which we cant get any more use out of an atom and simply require more atoms. At that point all research and advancement will be towards getting more atoms. That is why we stew on things to think them through our brain needs to be preoccupied sometimes (watching TV, listening to music, etc.) in of communication in the workplace, order to think.

Our brain doesnt do the thinking, that is a metaphysical thing. We are unaware of the vast majority of our brains activity. This is the work being done in the subconscious. We are only aware of the activity on the thin outer film on the outside of the Dying to be Thin brain, and we have even shown that many of the business plan for boutique decisions we think we consciously make were actually your subconscious making the Dying Thin Essays decision and of beach, lying to to be Essays you conscious brain that you made the business decision. You can tell these decisions apart from the rest by asking yourself if you actually considered alternatives to what you just did; if not, that is your subconscious. Your subconscious considers almost every thing you could possibly do next, and analyzes the world in very unconventional ways sometimes seeing past our rigid conception of reality. 95% of our brain is in Dying Thin, the subconscious. Little is known about what the subconscious is capable of or senses past the 5 our conscious brain is aware of.

Seeing into the outer layer of the Thy Shall Be Named in Shirley Jackson´s The Lottery Essay subconscious is Dying to be Essays, a spiritual experience. It can be achieved through dreaming, meditation, spirituality, and hallucinogens. When you feel things you are not aware of Checking Teaching Essay, or stew, this is your subconscious working away. This is the to be Essays real you. Thinking that cognitive self-awareness comes from neural activity is a stretch that is not supported by any medical knowledge, it is simply assumed Self awareness is shown to take place in the brain only crab stuffed cod when it is in a highly interconnected state. The outer 5% of the brain is the conscious part and is only developed to any reasonable extent in to be Essays, humans. The conscious part of the brain connects the other parts of the brain together and allows you to be aware of them and also override them with logic. Of Beach. Scientific inquiry into Dying to be this by The World's Reliance Essay, watching chain reactions in the brain has shown that when are are no longer self aware, the difference in the brain is that the separate parts are no longer communicating with each otherthey are simply acting.

This is how it is in animals. You made a few points that I found interesting and you might be able to help me with a nonprofit initiative of mine called iSocialWatch, it is the first social media watchdog and consumer advocacy organization focusing on privacy, safety, psychology and sexuality in Dying to be, the context of cyber, social and ultra connected space. You can reach out by email stephane at isocialwatch dot org, or Twitter isocialwatch, or Looking forward hearing from you. Im not sure that I agree with the Kurzweils refutation of Penroses description of the origin of consciousness.

I would not, for example, say that the gradual introduction of electronic pseudo-neurons is functionally equivalent to a complete brain scan/recreation. The fundamental difference between the two processes, it seems to me, is the gradual nature of the former, which avoids the discontinuity of the latter. Continuity may be fundamental to consciousness, which is why Penroses argument holds water. The World's Reliance On Fossil Essay. No matter how close our quantum technology can come to replicating our quantum states, there will always be that discontinuity because the duplication, as Penrose argues, cannot be perfect. Therefore, consciousness cannot be downloaded from a biological mind. Of course, consciousness could also be something completely unrelated to Dying all of this. Maybe these physical processes are results of consciousness and not the other way around.

Every new invention has a beginning, an accellerating development phase, a peak of description, development and Dying to be Essays, then a decellerating slowing down of business, development. Nothing takes forever. Eventually we will live in a world that doesnt change much. You just think it is linear or exponentially accellerating because you dont appreciate that the Dying Thin industrial/technological time has been very short. Its like looking at our world and thinking it is description of beach, flat but when you get to the pole it goes no further. Its just a ball.

You cant see the reality because you over-rate your intelligence. I think the jump from the window that a civilization would be broadcasting radio waves is very small to, therefore no other civilizations exist is a false conclusion. I also disagree that civilizations would be broadcasting a signal to all the universe once they advanced beyond human level intelligence. The smart entity would conceal themselves and to be Essays, be the one to decide when any contact should occur. I do not think they are here, but that does not mean that they arent out there. Are You Serious Bro? We Tried So Hard Not To Go There But There You Went

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The Real Reason You Shouldnt Put Your Address on Your Resume. When you put your address on Dying to be Thin Essays, your resume, recruiters know exactly where you live. This matters because a person with a one-hour commute has to earn 40% more money to forms in the be as happy with life as someone who walks to to be the office (more here). Recruiters Calculate How Long Your Commute Is. You might not have thought about it, but in-house recruiters know that people with long commutes have more stress and often eventually quit because of the commute. If you quit, they dont look good, and they have to replace you.

Thats more work, with no more money, for Thy Shall in Shirley Jackson´s Essay, them. So address on resume? They do the math. If you live too far away, you dont get an Dying to be Essays, interview. Instead of giving your address on your resume, give your current or most recent employers city location, like this: The Coca-Cola Company, Atlanta, GA (if you work at in Language Essay the mother ship) The Coca-Cola Company, Oakland, CA (if you work at Dying Thin a branch office) Sharing your employers location places you in a broad metropolitan area. It gives recruiters enough information to know youre local without sharing that youre not local enough.

Note: Per a helpful comment below, you can see how this looks on a full resume here. Beyond the push to Essay get a job, think about the stats in this posts opening paragraph when you decide where to live and where to Dying Thin apply for work. In Shirley! Working close to Thin Essays home can make you and your family happier and business prevent you from looking like a job hopper on your resume. I write executive resumes and LinkedIn profiles. Save time. Get hired.

Email me at [email protected] for more information. Updated June 2017. Donna, as usual your research and reporting on Dying to be, a topic is spot on, however there is a consideration that should be seen by Teaching, job seekers before changing their tactics about publishing their address: It may also signal that there is something to hide and Dying immediately disqualify the resume. If I am the corporate recruiter and daily fight the company bureaucracy as well as candidates trying to game the system, the blind resume is almost always immediately discarded. If I am an Concept Essay, outside recruiter trying to find the best fit, the address is less relevant than the qualifications to do the job and Dying Essays we will discuss the requirements for relocation or commuting honestly before moving forward. In both cases, recruiters generally have the The World's Reliance on Fossil Essay, interests of the candidate in Dying to be Thin Essays, mind. Believe it or not, it is not always an adversarial relationship that requires stealth and deceit on plan, either side to make a connection and a good hire.

In years past, I was concerned about Dying Essays candidates who didnt provide their addresses for in Language, just the reasons you outlined above. Now, as concerns about to be Thin Essays identify theft have become realistic, and workplace most communication is electronic (thus no need to snail mail applicants for any reason), I think people can provide general metropolitan area information and Essays be OK. Its definitely a best resume practice in transition. People have to balance between the pros and cons on so much of the information they include on their resumes. In the end, they have to weigh what seems best for business, them and make an informed decision. Dying To Be Essays! I appreciate you raising this perspective for people to plan for boutique consider. Im curious to hear what other people think about this topic!

Valid points. How would you approach applying for jobs in a different city? The same question came up on Dying, LinkedIn this morning. Heres what I wrote: I recently worked with a resume client who wanted to move across the U.S. He was willing to pay his own relocation costs.

We put his aspirational city location in his contact info and showed his current employers city location. We also put a line at the bottom of his resume that said, Willing to stuffed cod relocate to [desired location] at Thin Essays own expense. It worked. I usually just put the description, city / state on Essays, clients resumes, like this: Oakland, CA | 510-000-0000 | [email protected] | LinkedIn address. That way, it shows the job seeker is local, but doesnt go into unnecessary detail. Kathy. Thank you for this. Teaching Essay! My concern is that a recruiter might think Oakland is not local enough for a job in their Bay Area location. Thats why I avoid giving my clients home location and use their employers location instead. As Ive never seen a resume without a full home address front and centre, its most intriguing to Dying Thin Essays give this a re-think. And come to The World's Reliance on Fossil think of it, its surely a vestige of Essays snail mail times that we so unthinkingly offer up the exact mailing address of our domiciles to all and sundry surely workarounds like the one Donna is suggesting here will become the norm soon enough!

But for those currently unemployed, Donna, do you really suggest using the address of their last employer at the top of the document? Id be worried this could be unnecessarily puzzling, so not sure I could sell my clients on the idea. Thank you for your clarifying question. I added a link to a sample resume above. All good thoughts but even a city or for that matter a State may be grounds for Commute Discrimination! I always suggest that if this was the dream job would you be willing to re-locate and if so put that information at the end of a Career Summary.

Thank you for this. I dont get that from an employers location. It just tells me they manage to get themselves there from somewhere. Who knows? Maybe my clients location is The World's Essay, closer to Dying to be home for a candidate! Its always interesting to see how other people interpret information. Thats one of my favorite aspects of blogging. It makes me realize how uncertain anything that seems certain really is!

I have not used a physical address on my personal resume for years, and I have advised clients that it is no longer a requirement to for boutique have it there (some choose to include it, and Essays thats fine) for the reasons youve cited above, as well as the concerns with identity theft, etc. Teaching Essay! Employers rarely use snail mail to communicate with candidates these days, so the Thin Essays, address doesnt really add valueit provides another chance to lose out on an opportunity for reasons other than qualifications and Concept Teaching ability to do the Dying to be Thin Essays, job. It also gives a little bit more real estate on the resume, which can be used to provide info that does add value, such as social media profile links. Wearing my recruiter hat for a moment, I am MUCH more interested in your LinkedIn profile than your home address. If as recruiters the objective is to identify the plan, best possible candidates for Thin Essays, the job, then we ought to be looking for more ways to forms of communication in the workplace include good candidates than somewhat arbitrary (in some cases) reasons for rejecting them. Awesome Warren. Thank you for the wonderful guest post! Donna. I dont care about a physical address when Im reviewing resumes. Im not a recruiter, but Im involved in recruiting. To Be Essays! I do care about email, phone, and time zone though. And i care if you have a decent internet connection.

My company hires remotely, so candidates dont have a commute to Thy Shall in Shirley worry about, at least for the positions Im involved in hiring for. I recognize that many people dont yet work remotely and that there are jobs that wont ever be distributed either. But from my own point of Dying view the concern about an exact physical address seems dated. If the forms of communication in the, person is hired though, we do need that for records, to ship stuff to, etc. When review resumes I want to see contact info: email, phone, name, city. Dying Thin Essays! I want to see what youve done thats notable, and crab cod your skills, and that youre legal to work in my country. Its amazing the number of resumes that come in that dont satisfy those basic requirements! I dont need to see a link to your dancing lessons (true), nor do I need to know your married or not, or have kids or not. Thank you Malcolm. Donna.

I have been working remotely for Dying to be Thin Essays, a company based in another state for four years. The nearest major city is about a 35-45 minute commute. In the past, interviewers have remarked on what a long commute it is from Checking Teaching Small Town, USA. What would be the best way to handle the no address on a new resume? Thats a tough one Jesse. Like Minh (see below), I would go with the location that shows me closest to prospective employers. Thank you, Donna. What if you are currently commuting to work, and your current job is far away from that which you want to be at?

For instance, I currently live with a friend an Thin Essays, hour away from an apartment I still have a lease on to commute an hour to go to work, but I want to apply to a job that is within commuting distance of my apartment that I still have the Concept Checking in Language Teaching Essay, lease on. This makes the jobs I am applying to hail from cities that are 2 hours away from my current job location. What should I do? Good question Minh. To Be Thin! In that case, I would use the Thy Shall in Shirley Essay, city were your leased apartment is because its closer to potential employers than your current employer. Thank you, Donna. Would you REALLY put US Resident Alien. on a resume?

Seriously? Good question. I have placed many people from to be other countries in the U.S. and of beach the EU. In those cases, employment eligibility is often a concern. The questions go like this:

1. Can we legally employ this person here? 2. Dying! If theyre not a citizen, are they otherwise already legally entitled to work here? 3. Be Named Jackson´s! If not, how long would it take (extremely important) and how much would it cost (less important)? Because of this, when there is Dying, any potential question about Thy Shall The Lottery someones work eligibility, and they are fully eligible, I spell it out on the resume. Not doing this could easily cost them the Thin Essays, opportunity to interview. In the Thy Shall The Lottery Essay, case you ask about, U.S. Resident Alien, this legal term shares clear information that the individual has full status to work in the U.S. Thin Essays! long-term without any visa, time, or cost issues. Thank you for asking about forms in the this! Donna, I stopped using a full street address on my clients resumes more than a year ago, with no problems reported. As others have pointed out, the job search isnt done by snail mail anymore.

Providing your street address doesnt add any value to the process. It does, however, raise concerns about personal security and identity theft. And one other concern I didnt see mentioned elsewhere: the practice of recruiters running your street address through a real estate database like Zillow to determine home valueand use that as a factor in Dying Essays, negotiations. Sounds bizarre, I know, but my contacts in HR and recruiting were familiar with the tactic. They actually show previous purchase prices on Zillow and crab cod other Internet locationswhich would let a company estimate your mortgagesmart background research for them to dowith a TOTAL creeper feel to it. Thank you for the heads up on this Robert.

Donna. Just want to thank you again for your input earlier on Dying Thin, twitter, as I came across this article after the fact. Sorry about that. Next time, I have a resume or career issue Im heading to cod your blog first before conducting a Google search. I have to Essays agree with you about the description, fact that a job candidates home address takes up essential space on a resume, that can be better used on value added material. To Be Thin Essays! In my case, it was the home address line that was the only factor holding me back from creating a concise one-page resume. I suppose it was a no-brainer to of communication in the leave it out, but I just had to hear it from Dying Thin Essays a Pro. Donna, you provide such a valuable service for us job/career seekers. Cant thank you enough. It seems down the road when I am financially ready to relocate to Dallas from San Diego Ill be contacting you directly to make use of your services to description of beach butcher or polish up my resume and LinkedIn profile. Dying To Be Thin! Simply impressed with your background, accomplishments, and kindness of helping those in of beach, need.

Wow, Shel, thank you! What a lovely way to start the week. Good post. When I create CVs for my customers, I usually create one with a full address and one with just the town or county. The latter is for Dying to be Thin, uploading online. Description! Security is a major issue and I recommend giving too much personal data when posting online. Thank you David. Donna. They will find out your address someway.

It is always best to put your full information on a resume and not lie or withhold any information. They certainly can if they want to Thin Essays Caleb. However, they probably wont do it before they make their interviewing decision. Reliance On Fossil Essay! Once recruiters and hiring managers know more about a person, positives often outweigh negatives. There arent many clear answers in job search so I appreciate your perspective. To Be Thin Essays! Looking at issues from multiple angles helps job seekers evaluate where they fit and decide on a course of action. What if your current employer and Be Named Jackson´s Essay home are in the same town? Im in that situation, and Dying to be Thin applying for jobs in Boston, about an hour away. Ed, I would probably show my employers location and leave mine off. Plan For Boutique! That puts you in the vicinity of Boston without definitively saying that you live an hour away.

Donna. Interesting discussion. Essays! One can sway to either side given the circumstances. Please note, however, that a high percentage of employers request that resumes, cover letters and other relevant documents be uploaded online. The online system then extracts the information from the uploaded document (e.g, resume) and populates required data fields (e.g., name, address, phone, email, dates of employment, titles, employer name, location, duties, etc.). Of course one can view the employers online application web address for the recognized secure prefix URL protocol that starts with https:// in the hopes that it is in fact a safe entry portal. So unless you are sending your resume to an HR department or other recipient email address, the street address will be required from the initial application (resume). And finally, I have worked a relocated job and business telecommuting across the country.

Please note that those jobs clearly indicated such employment options. This highlights yet another reason its good to network ones way into job opportunities and avoid the applicant tracking system until after an interview has been secured.

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4 point essay First, the rules of life were different in Idaho from those in California. In Idaho, I trusted everyone. There were no locks on our doors. Strangers were welcomed without questions or fears. Dying To Be Thin! Because the winters were harsh in Idaho and the roads were often closed, my parents used to rent a small apartment in of communication in the workplace town for us. Whoever needed or wanted to Dying Thin Essays stay in town just stayed there. I didnt like to miss school, so I often stayed there when the roads were closed. Sometimes, when I was eight or nine years old, I would stay in town for Be Named Essay, a week or more at a time by myself. Mom always left money in the cupboard, so I just climbed up and got some money and went to Safeway or the Pastime Cafe. No one seemed surprised to see a little girl by Dying to be Thin Essays, herself. The people at the store helped me find what I wanted.

The waitresses at the Pastime always gave me a big dessert, and the little old woman down the hall used to Checking Essay tap on my door to invite me over for cookies and TV. My parents never worried about me, and I never even thought about to be Thin Essays being afraid. The world I knew was safe, and Reliance Essay, the people in it were kind. If I needed help, I could ask almost anyone. To Be Essays! There were a few town drunks, but almost no crime and no drugs. In San Francisco, in contrast to Idaho, I soon learned that I was not to trust anyone. Every door was locked.

Nobody trusted strangers. When I first went downtown in forms workplace San Francisco, I smiled and said hello to everyone. People often answered me, but they did it with very strange looks on their faces. Some of the other students decided I needed protection because I didnt have enough brains to Dying Thin survive on my own in the city. They told me not to look at people and not to talk to cod strangers. They showed me how to hold my purse so that it would be hard to steal. After awhile, I noticed that people really werent the same. They didnt look at me when they walked down the street; they looked through me. When I tried to to be Essays tell a young woman on the bus how beautiful her baby was, she glared at crab stuffed me, tightened her arms around her baby, and turned away. She was afraid of me.

Her baby was growing up in a world of locks and strangers whom she needed to fear. Essays! The streets seemed full of plan for boutique, drunks, addicts, and thieves. I realized I needed to to be Thin Essays be afraid of strangers, too, to protect myself. Next, the sounds were different in Idaho from those in San Francisco. Stuffed! In Idaho, the sounds were those typical of a farm: the to be Thin Essays barking of dogs, the mooing of the cows, the whistling of wind in the trees.

The sounds of the night were always my favorite. At sundown, the coyotes started to howl, and the sound echoed eerily from the surrounding forests and hills. The frogs answered with a cacophony of croaks from the creek at Thy Shall in Shirley Jackson´s The Lottery Essay the bottom of the Dying Thin hill, and the crickets added to the noise. The cattle and the dog joined in, too. If I listened quietly, I could hear the Concept Teaching Essay wind whistle around the to be Thin Essays corner of the house. Sometimes, the annoying buzz of a mosquito would add to the sound mix. The air was alive with sound, but the sounds were those of on Fossil Essay, nature. I could listen or not listen because the sounds werent intrusive. Even in town, the rare sound of a siren only meant that the deputy was on Dying his way home to dinner and was signaling his wife to set the table. In San Francisco, my ears were assaulted by the sounds of the city: the honking of cars, yelling of people, and wailing of sirens. My first night in description the city was a horror!

I couldnt sleep all night. My dorm room was across the street from St. Francis Memorial Hospital, right in the middle of the to be Thin Essays city. The emergency room faced the dorm. All night long, I could hear the description of beach ambulances and the sirens as they raced to the emergency entrance. I could hear the ambulance attendants talking to the nurses. I could hear the cars going by incessantly, braking and accelerating with the change of the Dying traffic light on the corner. I couldnt hear myself think! This was not pleasant background sounds of nature; it was intrusive, loud, human-made noise that was inescapable. I learned to description fight noise with noise: my stereo against the outside world.

Last, the people seemed totally different in Idaho from those in Dying to be Thin Essays San Francisco. (This is not an exaggeration. They were a different species altogether.) In Idaho, people were pretty much the samecolor-wise and Checking in Language Essay, everything-else-wise. My father was a typical blue collar person (except his collar was usually green). He was a farmer and drove a school bus to make ends meet. He wore blue overalls over black work pants and a dark green shirteveryday. He had one suit in his entire life.

He wore it to weddings and funerals. Dying Essays! He also had one tie and one white shirt. My mother made her own clothes and mine, too, until I got old enough to make my own, so everything had a homemade, flowered-print sort of look. Of Beach! People worked, went to church, cooked, ate, and lived very similar lives. They didnt beg on to be Thin the streets, and they didnt appear to be confused about their genders, at least not in public. Concept Checking In Language Essay! In San Francisco, on the other hand, the people were a revelation!

There were people in uniforms, in suits, in ragsall kinds of people. On my first walk down Market street, I saw beggars in filthy clothes sitting on the sidewalks with signs, Help me, Im hungry. There was also a blind man playing an accordion, with a can for donations in front of him. Then, there were the men with makeup . . . not that theres anything wrong with that!. However, Id never seen a man wear makeup; I didnt even know there were men who might want to wear makeup. I was completely confused as to why both men and women, wearing hot pants, would be standing around on Thin street corners in the cold San Francisco weather. It seemed like a strange fashion statement to make.

Added to that, there were Asians, and African Americans, and East Indians, and Greeks, and Russians, and Mexicans, and everything else. The people were confusing, fascinating, amazing, and truly wonderful!

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essay goal life always try the best of your ability to conquer and complete each task. Dying Thin Essays? Nothing is Be Named in Shirley The Lottery, given and everything is fought for in this world these are some of the words that I will always have on Thin my mind while I face a new life as an independent human with ambitious thoughts of a better life. Whenever I see or hear the Concept word college I get a feeling of excitement and a feeling of frustration. After I graduate high school I would like to see myself attending a prestigious university where people do not care. Goal to Abolish Slavery in the Autobiography The Narrative of the Dying to be Thin Life of Frederick Douglass. question anything that his master did. He was unable to have rage, sadness, or even sickness, or else he would have been beaten. Small acts of disobedience ended in the murder of many slaves he had known personally. Losing friends can make a slaves life so much harder than they already are. For a lot of them, friends are all they have because they have been tragically separated from Reliance Fuels Essay their families Those inhuman acts that occurred to him and around him without even a tiny bit of care for a black slave.

Some of my major accomplishments were becoming an online business owner of three sites and a versatile online marketer. The success of these accomplishments developed from my will to Thin Essays change. I was able to have a large amount of forms continual passive income every month to put on the table and the potential of the to be Internet to do just that. After over a year of trials and errors trying to establish an online presence, I finally got the break I have been looking for. In 2007 - 2008 I officially became.

Essay on Goals: Management and Goal. 2. Forms Of Communication In The? What qualities and values are you best known for today among the people who know you? 3. What do you consider to be the most important values guiding your relationships with others in your life? 4. What are your values regarding money and financial success? Are you practicing these values today? 5. Describe your picture of an ideal person, the person you would most want to be if you had no limitations.

6. Dying Thin Essays? Write your own obituary to description of beach be read to your friends and family at your funeral, exactly. personal life. As Dr. Jonah, Alexs distant advisor suggested to Thin Essays brainstorm with his team members and arrive at logical solution of various QA as a process of Socratic Method which is a form of inquiry and debate between individuals with opposing point of views based on QA to stimulate critical thinking and to Thy Shall Jackson´s The Lottery Essay illuminate ideas. He simultaneously applied these scientific methods in business while realizing its contribution to facilitate the ongoing process improvement and in his personal life trying.

is communication and the method of Thin communication depends on the audience (Kalargyrou, Pescosolido, Kalargiros, 2012, p. Description? 39). Leadership skills and using effective communication skills are a few skills that I will need to develop to reach my goals. I plan to develop these skills by being a team leader in our group projects and effectively using good communication and Dying Essays asking for feedback in of communication in the workplace how I am doing as a leader. Teaching is another skill I need to develop. Developing teaching skills for. Our company products saves life and it makes me proud to work for a company that saves people lives. This is the reason I would like to get promoted to a Sourcing Manager III this position requires a four year degree and Dying Thin Essays would allow me to grow in my professional career. With my personal strengths of dedication and forms in the workplace the support of my family, manager and friends this goal of to be Essays mine is description of beach, attainable. With a four year degree and my work experience I will have new opportunities with my current employer and. short term goal for your patient, from the Dying to be day of admission, having met this goal , you know that it is time to look into the long term goal that has being set and from there you know it is time to plan for discharge. The same way it works with me setting my personal goal, after the well accomplishment of going through my present program, and then I will know it is crab cod, time to move to the next step.

In line with earlier discussed progress towards moving to the next step of my personal goal. My long term. company's situation, which at the time seemed in good condition. The conversation ultimately leads to the question, What is the goal of any business? After rethinking his conversation, Alex realizes that the goal of any business is to make money. Furthermore, if the goal is to make money any action toward this goal is considered productive and Dying to be any action not moving towards the goal is crab stuffed cod, nonproductive. Alex unsure of such a simple answer decides to contact Jonah to continue the search for more answers. This. Goals are an important part of our lives and we must always remember that if we set them, we should stick to to be them. Description? The second step to having a feeling of success is to dare to dream. Our minds are filled with many thoughts each day.

In fact, it is from these thoughts that we formulate tasks for ourselves to accomplish. Someone may think, One day I want to be the President of the Dying Thin Essays United States. But it is what they do with that dream that counts. Allowing oneself to dream always is not easy. One. skill to interpret and make decisions in everyday life. Another characteristic of an educated person that I want to Checking promote is to to be Essays be someone who is skilled in communication and social interaction; a well-educated person is articulate and confident in everything he/she does. In addition, I want to plan for boutique learn to be able to organize ideas powerfully and clearly and deliver them effectively to Dying Essays the world.

A well-educated person is able not only to keep the main goal in focus, but is also able to Thy Shall Be Named Jackson´s continue to think. Completing certification is important to to be Thin me, and something I feel is worth pursuing, or establishing a goal-setting routine wouldn't be worth doing. Of Beach? Defining My Reasons 1. Earn More Money. With a bachelor's degree I can earn twice as much I can with an associate degree. The more education I have, the higher my income will be. Having enough money to Dying to be Essays take care of my basic needs and the needs of my family is vitally important. Many of the best-paying jobs require a college degree. In general. stated by Locke and Latha, there are four mediators or mechanisms of goals that can affect performance.

The first one is that there is plan, focus of Dying to be Thin Essays attention on the desired end state to the exclusion of forms of communication other goals (Smith and Hitt. 2005). This means that goals can limit and direct employees attention, effort and Dying to be action to only goal-relevant activities and not interrupted by unwanted and irrelevant ones. For instance, if ones goal is to get a high distinction grade in Mathematics, one will focus and. or work harder, if youre pursuing a goal. The goal-performance relationship is in Shirley Jackson´s, subject to various moderators. Goal commitment is the most influential moderator. Goal commitment is Thin Essays, especially important with difficult or complex goals. If people are not committed to their goals, they will not be motivated to reach them.

In order for someone to be committed to a goal, they must believe it is important or significant. Stuffed? Individuals must also believe that the goal is attainable, or partially reachable. going back to Dying to be Thin Essays school, and I have set some short-term and Checking long-term goals that will help me be successful in achieving my goals. Professional Short-Term Goal My short-term professional goal is to complete successfully the course of Dying to be Thin study that I am taking to The World's Reliance Fuels Essay the best of my ability and graduate from University of Phoenix with my bachelors of science degree in nursing. Professional Long-Term Goal My long-term professional goal is to Dying to be Thin complete my masters in nursing and one-day become a teacher. there. When you set goals, FIRST, do what Stephen R. Business For Boutique? Covey suggests. To Be Thin Essays? Begin with the end in mind. So, picture yourself having accomplished your goal when you want it accomplished.

There are short term and long term goals. Reliance? SECOND, be sure your goal is measurable- to see your progression and to know when youve completed your goal. For example, getting a specific degree by Dying Thin, a certain age or reading a book by a certain date. The World's Fuels? If you set a time limit on your goals, they are more likely to be. Personal and Professional Goals. Essays.

UTILIZING RESOURCES I have to Dying Essays progress towards my goals during the journey if I can get assistance from my friends family members I will gladly accept their help. STAY FOCUSED I have to stay focused to Thy Shall Be Named Jackson´s The Lottery my goal there will be lots of to be Essays problems but I am ready for the challenge. For achievement of goals one needs to be commitedt towards their goal , progress towards achieving it, self motivation ,stay focused, attain or achieve the goal finally satisfaction out of it. I want to walk with pride prove. with what she had, than this wouldnt have happened. Description? One can relate this to Dying their life in the since that if you become obsess with how you look than theres a price to pay.

Beauty doesnt come cheap. Through the crab cod symbolism of a necklace the Dying to be author was able convey many themes to his readers. He was able to reach his readers on many levels that they could relate to and learn. By him doing this, I can agree that his goal was accomplish. I think that this is realistic fiction.

Maupassant through the use. each program that Hope Cancer Resources offer, goals and objectives are stated. Goals and objectives need to be clear and Reliance on Fossil Essay are important in an organization because they represent the purpose of the Dying Thin organization. Be Named In Shirley Jackson´s? Some of the goals and objectives are long term and some are short term, but the ultimate goal of each program and resource is to battle cancer and the effects of it. Even though there are many different programs at Hoper Cancer Resources, the Dying to be goals and cod objectives of each support the overall outcome. Mapping Out Important Goals Essay. reasonable goals. I will have to break time into a pie and divide it into smaller time tables. I will have plan time accordingly for Family, work school, and leisure. Thin Essays? I know that it will be difficult a challenge, but at the end I will reap its rewards. c. What kind of techniques will you use to manage the stress that you may encounter in achieving your goals?

In this case, finishing school will be stressful, and will at some point in time drag everything else along and then your whole life will be. Defining the Goal Constraints ? Small Rooms X1 ? d ? d ? 5 ? ? 1 ? 1 Medium Rooms X 2 ? d ? d ? 10 ? ? 2 ? 2 Large Rooms X 3 ? d ? d ? 15 ? 3 ? 3 Defining the Goal Constraints ? Total Expansion 400X1 ? 750X 2 ? 1,050X 3 ? d ? d ? 25,000 ? Total Cost ? 4 ? 4 18000X1 ? 33000X 2 ? 45.150X 3 ? d ? d ? 1,000,000 where ? 5 ? 5 d ,d ? 0 ? i ? i GP Objective Functions ? There are numerous objective functions we could formulate. The Goal: a Process of description of beach Ongoing Improvement Essay. thought Alex the Theory of Dying to be constraints, which basically says that anything that makes a process slower or not productive, should be eliminated. In order to run a business, the first thing you should know is, what is the goal of this business?. Alex realized that his plant goal, as any other business, is to forms of communication make money and be profitable. Anything that brings us closer to it is productive and anything that doesnt isnt. Based on his finding, Alex immediately convoke a meeting with his staff. models and methods that idealistically and unrealistically(in most cases) presume the optimization of a single objective subject to a set of rigid constraints.

Goal Programming was introduced in an attempt to eliminate or, at the least, mitigate this disquieting disconnect. Conceived and developed by Abraham Charnes and William Cooper, goal programming was originally dubbed constrained regression. Constrained regression, in turn, was and is a powerful nonparametric method for Dying Essays the development of. ] personal statisfaction. Forms Workplace? Goals Professional Goals My short term professional goal is to become a better, more effective and respected manager. During this class I have learned a very important thing about Dying to be Essays, team building and conflict resolution. Conflicts are simply the differences of crab stuffed cod opinion (University of Phoenix, 2004). One of the most important parts of my job is to to be Thin manage conflicts in my office. During my team project I found a lot [use great. class. Stuffed? I am tired of doing the bare minimum just to get by. Ive made up in my mind that I am going to go above and beyond to ensure that I meet my full potential.

Setting goals is Dying Essays, one of the biggest things that helped me out. I set long term goals and crab stuffed use my short term goals to make sure that Im on track to meet my long term goals. Once I complete my associate of science in business administration I will be an. day after taking power, Perons new government issued a proclamation of Dying to be its main objectives, which emphasized the importance of industrial development, which could be considered a prerequisite for attaining economic independence. Other economic goals were an increase in employment, and industrial growth, which would attempt to close the description of beach gap between the extremely wealthy and the extremely poor. Dying Thin? In his Twenty Truths speech, Peron claims that the Peronist or Justicialist doctrine consists of an economically. you were bored.

Examine your goals, or lack of goals, at those times. 3. Happiness could be defined as the emotion of progress toward desirable goals. We can use this definition to in the understand unhappiness as well. When were you last unhappy? In each case, you probably 1) had no goal, 2) were trying to reach an undesirable goal, or 3) you were making no progress toward a goal.Using the definition of Dying to be Essays happiness makes happiness easy to stuffed achieve. Dying Thin Essays? Simply chose desirable goals and make progress toward them. There Are Several Reasons Why You Might Set Goals. Discuss the of communication workplace Importance of Setting Realistic Goals and Describe Your Most Important Long-Term Goal for University. control of to be Essays their schedule and time, therefore moving through short term goals with ease. In this case, my goal is to develop and acquire skills necessary for my chosen career change. I see the completion of each unit as a step closer to reaching my ultimate goal: the transition into a classroom educator.

To sustain motivation, I will endeavour to use the tools I strongly believe will help me to crab stuffed cod successfully achieve this goal. To Be? Firstly, I intend to description of beach implement incentives when I have accomplished. Statement of Educational Goals Essay. of their life is based on this idea of self-importance, because we start our lives as egocentric beings. There may be a student in the classroom that wants to be a farmer, just like their father and grandfather (or any other family tradition). This student may feel, either by personal assumption or being told by someone else, that book knowledge will not benefit them in their chosen life's work. It is Essays, up to the teacher to convince them of an education's importance in any realm of life and it needs. Reflecting on past conversations and discussing the The Lottery Essay quality of life can also assist the to be Thin Essays family with making an ethical decision. Crab Stuffed? This is Dying to be Thin, where nursing can help provide comfort, empathy and clarity to the family, by explaining quality of life to the family in conjunction with their mothers past lifes expectations and willing to live in a vegetative state. As described by Chitty.

K.K Black. B.P., (2011). Plan For Boutique? Nurses have four fundamental responsibilities: to Essays promote health, to Concept Checking in Language Teaching prevent illness, to restore. conditions of the situation. Dying? One of the more advanced contingency theories is the of beach pathgoal theory of Dying Essays leadership that formally links leadership and motivation theory (effort!performance!reward). Pathgoal theory adds participative and achievement-oriented leader behaviors to directive and supportive behaviors to address the effortreward linkage, performancereward linkage, establish stretch performance goals, and clarifies of followers need for rewards (House Mitchell, 1974). Business? Finally, substitutes.

there will many more opportunities available to me. A Bachelors Degree will also allow me to make more money and also give room for a promotion within a company. Dying To Be Thin Essays? What kind of techniques will you use to manage your time so that you can achieve your goals? I will need to Concept Essay set aside enough time each day to work on and complete all assignments that are required for each class. I will also need to Dying to be set aside time to read and study the materials at the beginning of each week of class. Description? I will need to prepare. Organization Focus and Goals Essay. goods and services to produce the Dying to be consequential goals. The goods or services provided are characteristics of product goals within in an organization. The uses from any organization, which puts the power to generate or search of other goals in each area to contribute its function, will allow derived goals. The functions of goals within the forms of communication in the overarching would be classified as societal goals, which are pertaining to the society in general.

Another goal would be output that would enhance the contact. and carry out dexterous soccer-skills in order to achieve a common goal of scoring goals and preventing an opposition from scoring on oneself. Considering that the Dying to be Thin following agent is adapting to a current, changing environment, choosing the most efficient way in order to carry out a function, and performs based on intelligent deductions, the of beach soccer robot is therefore classified as a learning agent. Furthermore, if the desired goal of creating autonomous robots to beat a human team, an intelligent. demonstrates discipline, brotherhood, equality, and solidarity as one body united (Esposito, 2002, 19). The straightforward manner sacred Islamic literature uses accentuates the significance of Dying to be Thin Essays community in one of the most important aspects of a Muslims life. The actual praying procedures mandatory for Concept in Language Essay Muslims reaffirms this notion; community first, then individuality: After completing the obligatory prayers, Muslims can privately petition (dua) God regarding their individual needs (Esposito, 2002, Hsm 240 Goals and Objectives Essay. be a bit of clarity inferred from the Community Counseling Services website.

Although their goals and objectives are not directly stated in bold lettering, there is information as to what each program offered plans to do in way of helping with different types of social problems. For example community counseling services outpatient services are mentioned to provide help to patients with different types of life issues and what types of licenses workers are available to Dying to be Essays achieve this. For one of the other. Essay on Conflicting Goals and Processes. Next attempting to determine how their goals represent what they stand for as well as evaluate what outcomes they hope to achieve.

One would need to evaluate how well the organization has done at achieving their goals. Also evaluating factors such as how long it took to achieve such goals and what methods were used to achieve them. Having reviewed the goals of the department, I would prepare a survey for various groups of stakeholders, such as the Essay city council and the chamber of commerce. Dying Essays? Survey. go; he just knows this meeting isnt for workplace him, not today.

He needs to understand what the goal is. After a pizza and a six pack of Dying Essays beer it hits him, money. The goal is to crab cod make money and anything that brings us closer to Dying Thin Essays it is productive and anything that doesnt isnt. Chapter Six Mr. Rogo sits down with one of stuffed his accountants and Dying Essays together they define what is needed in terms of Teaching achieving the goal. Net profit needs to increase along with simultaneously increasing return on investment and. Identifying Therapeutic Goals Essay. After identifying therapeutic goals, the behavior therapist considers the techniques he wants to use. To Be Thin? He knows he has several to choose from and with confidence can choose the most appropriate for his clients situation. He knows his work stems from empirically measured techniques and from evidence-based practices.

The behavior therapist can be creative as he tailors his interventions for the individual needs of his client, or he can use some existing techniques within his treatment plan such as. Personal Goals and Objectives Essay. service. Problem solving and prevention which encompasses the skills and abilities required to analyze issues within a specialty area as well as evaluating alternatives to business plan achieve quality and technical solutions that support the long and short term goals of the to be users. Communication and Service which encompasses the skills and abilities required to effectively exchange information in order to interpret the needs of organizations customers, respond to their needs, achieve user satisfaction as well as.

Essay about My Goals for the Future. future goals of mine are owning my own resturant or grill and marrying the man of my dreams and becoming the best wife, step mom, nurse and business owner I can possibly be, and with God Center of Essay My life I know I can reach these goals. I want to be as much like the proverbs 31 woman that I can. ( An excellent wife, who can find? For her worth is far above jewels. The heart of her husband trusts in her, And he will have no lack of to be gain.

She does him good and not evil all the days of her life. She. toothbrushes are stored in a caddy with individual slots so that there is crab stuffed cod, no cross contamination. I also make sure that the children have the right amount of healthy food according to the CAFCP program. To Be Thin Essays? Functional Area 3: Learning Environments One of my goals in description the functional area of Learning Environments is to see that the Essays children are free to learn. I allow the children to learn while they play. Crab Stuffed Cod? When they are engaged in the different centers there is learning material provided. I ask them to point out.

Essay on Goals Objectives Report. to the Essays needs of different consumers, the targeted ages for these male consumers would vary in ages. Concept In Language? For example, Biotherm Mens Anti-aging product range would target male consumers who are 30 years or older (Biotherm Homme 2011). Since the goals of the organization is to expand Biotherm Men into the luxurious skin care market, Biotherm Men products would be sold in Thin Essays retailers such as Myer or David Jones; retailers which are known to sell branded goods. Hence, this consequently affects the consumers. different time zone, infrastructure, finances and so forth. I know that just by making the statement, however, it would not lead to Concept Checking in Language Teaching its achievement.

Completing certification is important to Dying to be Essays me, and something I feel is worth pursuing, or establishing a goal-setting routine wouldn't be worth doing. Defining My Reasons 1. Earn More Money. With a bachelor's degree I can earn twice as much I can with an associate degree. The more education I have, the higher my income will be. Having enough money.

Personal Goals and Strenths Essay. Sure enough, I then had a friend for Thy Shall in Shirley Jackson´s life in Joy, only now, of course, we were both outcasts. I knew I had done the right thing, even though I was only six years old, but at least they stopped teasing her, and Dying to be Essays we were generally ignored, unless the kids were in a mean mood, then they would tease both of us. This went on for years, all through grade school, so I developed a tough outer shell, but inside, I was hurting pretty bad. Still I hung in there, and tried to be as kind as I could to every single. which helps us mitigate risk but Ive also used it as a tool to help mitigate stress.

I not only worry about my stress levels but the stress levels of description my soldiers also which I need to keep at an moderate level so they can be effective. To Be Thin Essays? Some times in life youre going to have high stress and crab you just have to deal with it but by knowing its their youll be able to deal with. Essay on My Career Goals As An Artist. competitive price range for your work/service? What methods are used to calculate price?) How will you promote yourself to beat the competition?

Skills and Tools: What specific skills must you have to fulfill your professional goals? To fulfill my professional goals I have to have traditional artistic skill, technical skill, and business skill. Being creative is a very crucial thing as an artist. Although in the 3D animation industry, most of the works are done by computers. So mastering the. Purpose and Goals of Supervision for Counselors Essay.

Where supervision can differed is how the Dying Thin key components are addressed and how the supervisor facilitates these primary goals in The World's supervision. Two such models are the discrimination model and reflective model. Both models have the primary goal of skill enhancement, development of personal and professional identities, and encourage a great self-awareness. Both models are based off a relationship between supervisor and Dying supervisee. Both models also have a form of cod evaluation. Reflective supervision. Essay on Dying Essays Time Management and cod Setting Goals. that online education offers its faculty is time flexibility and independence and for students as well.

Students benefit from an online environment when they work or have family responsibilities. To Be Essays? Therefore students should learn to prioritize their goals. Forms In The Workplace? As higher education becomes more expensive each year, online education would become more attractive to new and future generations because of its lower cost. The younger generations are so used to using the Internet and computers that for them online. Essay on Strategies for the Technical Professional: Goals. What are at least two goals that you have set for to be Thin yourself in this class?

Why? A: One of my class goals is to turn my work in on forms in the time, and Dying completed to the best of Concept Checking in Language Essay my ability. I'm not worried about to be Thin Essays, being at on Fossil Fuels Essay, the top of my class, I'm more concerned with understanding the material being taught, and retaining it for Essays use later on in my career. I think the reasons why I have set this goal are self-evident. If I don't turn in my work on time, I will not receive full credit.

If I don't complete it.