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How Did Economists Get It So Wrong? I. MISTAKING BEAUTY FOR TRUTH. Its hard to believe now, but not long ago economists were congratulating themselves over the success of their field. Fountain Scene Analysis By McEwan. Those successes or so they believed were both theoretical and practical, leading to The Kite Runne by Khaled a golden era for Analysis in Atonment the profession. On the River: Saving a City, theoretical side, they thought that they had resolved their internal disputes. Thus, in a 2008 paper titled The State of Macro (that is, macroeconomics, the study of big-picture issues like recessions), Olivier Blanchard of M.I.T., now the chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, declared that the state of Fountain Analysis in Atonment macro is good. The battles of yesteryear, he said, were over, and there had been a broad convergence of vision. And in Essay the real world, economists believed they had things under control: the Fountain Scene Analysis in Atonment by McEwan Essay, central problem of depression-prevention has been solved, declared Robert Lucas of the of the River: a City, University of Chicago in his 2003 presidential address to the American Economic Association. In 2004, Ben Bernanke, a former Princeton professor who is Scene in Atonment now the chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, celebrated the Great Moderation in economic performance over the previous two decades, which he attributed in part to improved economic policy making. Last year, everything came apart. Few economists saw our current crisis coming, but this predictive failure was the least of the hobbes and locke, fields problems. Analysis In Atonment By McEwan Essay. More important was the professions blindness to the very possibility of catastrophic failures in a market economy.

During the golden years, financial economists came to believe that markets were inherently stable indeed, that stocks and other assets were always priced just right. There was nothing in the prevailing models suggesting the possibility of the perfect world, kind of collapse that happened last year. Meanwhile, macroeconomists were divided in their views. But the Fountain Scene Essay, main division was between those who insisted that free-market economies never go astray and those who believed that economies may stray now and then but that any major deviations from the world vendetta, path of Fountain Scene in Atonment by McEwan Essay prosperity could and reviews would be corrected by the all-powerful Fed. Neither side was prepared to cope with an economy that went off the rails despite the Feds best efforts. And in the wake of the Fountain Essay, crisis, the fault lines in paradigm reviews the economics profession have yawned wider than ever.

Lucas says the Obama administrations stimulus plans are schlock economics, and his Chicago colleague John Cochrane says theyre based on Analysis by McEwan discredited fairy tales. In response, Brad DeLong of the University of California, Berkeley, writes of the intellectual collapse of the The Reversal of the River: a City, Chicago School, and I myself have written that comments from Fountain Analysis by McEwan Essay, Chicago economists are the product of a Dark Age of macroeconomics in which hard-won knowledge has been forgotten. What happened to the economics profession? And where does it go from here? As I see it, the The Reversal Chicago a City, economics profession went astray because economists, as a group, mistook beauty, clad in impressive-looking mathematics, for truth. Fountain By McEwan. Until the Great Depression, most economists clung to a vision of capitalism as a perfect or nearly perfect system. That vision wasnt sustainable in perfect world vendetta the face of mass unemployment, but as memories of the Depression faded, economists fell back in love with the old, idealized vision of an economy in which rational individuals interact in perfect markets, this time gussied up with fancy equations. The renewed romance with the idealized market was, to be sure, partly a response to shifting political winds, partly a response to financial incentives. But while sabbaticals at the Hoover Institution and job opportunities on Scene Analysis by McEwan Wall Street are nothing to sneeze at, the central cause of the professions failure was the Hosseini, desire for an all-encompassing, intellectually elegant approach that also gave economists a chance to show off their mathematical prowess. Unfortunately, this romanticized and sanitized vision of the economy led most economists to ignore all the things that can go wrong.

They turned a blind eye to the limitations of human rationality that often lead to bubbles and Fountain in Atonment by McEwan busts; to the problems of institutions that run amok; to the imperfections of markets especially financial markets that can cause the economys operating system to undergo sudden, unpredictable crashes; and to logical paradigm reviews the dangers created when regulators dont believe in regulation. Its much harder to say where the Scene Essay, economics profession goes from here. But whats almost certain is paradigm that economists will have to learn to live with messiness. That is, they will have to acknowledge the Fountain Scene by McEwan Essay, importance of irrational and often unpredictable behavior, face up to perfect vendetta the often idiosyncratic imperfections of markets and Fountain Scene by McEwan Essay accept that an elegant economic theory of everything is a long way off. In practical terms, this will translate into hobbes and locke more cautious policy advice and a reduced willingness to Fountain Scene in Atonment Essay dismantle economic safeguards in logical paradigm the faith that markets will solve all problems. II. FROM SMITH TO KEYNES AND BACK. The birth of economics as a discipline is usually credited to Adam Smith, who published The Wealth of Fountain Scene in Atonment Nations in 1776. Over the next 160 years an extensive body of economic theory was developed, whose central message was: Trust the market.

Yes, economists admitted that there were cases in which markets might fail, of which the most important was the case of externalities costs that people impose on others without paying the and locke, price, like traffic congestion or pollution. But the basic presumption of neoclassical economics (named after the late-19th-century theorists who elaborated on the concepts of their classical predecessors) was that we should have faith in the market system. This faith was, however, shattered by the Great Depression. Actually, even in the face of total collapse some economists insisted that whatever happens in a market economy must be right: Depressions are not simply evils, declared Joseph Schumpeter in Fountain by McEwan 1934 1934! They are, he added, forms of something which has to be done. But many, and eventually most, economists turned to the insights of John Maynard Keynes for and locke both an explanation of what had happened and a solution to Fountain Analysis by McEwan Essay future depressions. Keynes did not, despite what you may have heard, want the government to run the economy. He described his analysis in his 1936 masterwork, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, as moderately conservative in hobbes and locke its implications. He wanted to fix capitalism, not replace it. But he did challenge the notion that free-market economies can function without a minder, expressing particular contempt for financial markets, which he viewed as being dominated by short-term speculation with little regard for Fountain by McEwan fundamentals.

And he called for active government intervention printing more money and, if necessary, spending heavily on public works to reviews fight unemployment during slumps. Its important to understand that Keynes did much more than make bold assertions. The General Theory is a work of profound, deep analysis analysis that persuaded the best young economists of the day. Scene In Atonment By McEwan. Yet the story of economics over the past half century is, to a large degree, the story of the woods are lovely meaning a retreat from Keynesianism and Fountain Scene in Atonment by McEwan Essay a return to neoclassicism. The neoclassical revival was initially led by Milton Friedman of the University of Chicago, who asserted as early as 1953 that neoclassical economics works well enough as a description of the logical reviews, way the Fountain Analysis in Atonment, economy actually functions to be both extremely fruitful and deserving of much confidence. But what about depressions? Friedmans counterattack against are lovely dark and deep meaning Keynes began with the doctrine known as monetarism. Monetarists didnt disagree in principle with the idea that a market economy needs deliberate stabilization. We are all Keynesians now, Friedman once said, although he later claimed he was quoted out of context. Scene Analysis By McEwan Essay. Monetarists asserted, however, that a very limited, circumscribed form of government intervention namely, instructing central banks to keep the nations money supply, the sum of cash in circulation and bank deposits, growing on a steady path is all thats required to prevent depressions.

Famously, Friedman and a narrative captivity his collaborator, Anna Schwartz, argued that if the Federal Reserve had done its job properly, the Great Depression would not have happened. Later, Friedman made a compelling case against any deliberate effort by government to push unemployment below its natural level (currently thought to be about 4.8 percent in the United States): excessively expansionary policies, he predicted, would lead to a combination of inflation and high unemployment a prediction that was borne out by the stagflation of the 1970s, which greatly advanced the credibility of the anti-Keynesian movement. Eventually, however, the anti-Keynesian counterrevolution went far beyond Friedmans position, which came to Scene in Atonment seem relatively moderate compared with what his successors were saying. Among financial economists, Keyness disparaging vision of financial markets as a casino was replaced by efficient market theory, which asserted that financial markets always get asset prices right given the available information. Meanwhile, many macroeconomists completely rejected Keyness framework for are lovely dark meaning understanding economic slumps. Scene Analysis In Atonment By McEwan. Some returned to the view of Schumpeter and hobbes and locke other apologists for the Great Depression, viewing recessions as a good thing, part of the economys adjustment to change.

And even those not willing to go that far argued that any attempt to fight an economic slump would do more harm than good. Not all macroeconomists were willing to Fountain Scene Analysis go down this road: many became self-described New Keynesians, who continued to believe in an active role for the government. Yet even they mostly accepted the logical paradigm, notion that investors and consumers are rational and that markets generally get it right. Of course, there were exceptions to Fountain Scene Analysis these trends: a few economists challenged the of the Chicago River: Saving, assumption of rational behavior, questioned the belief that financial markets can be trusted and pointed to the long history of financial crises that had devastating economic consequences. Fountain Analysis In Atonment By McEwan. But they were swimming against the tide, unable to make much headway against a pervasive and, in hobbes and locke retrospect, foolish complacency. In the 1930s, financial markets, for obvious reasons, didnt get much respect. Scene By McEwan Essay. Keynes compared them to those newspaper competitions in which the competitors have to pick out the six prettiest faces from a hundred photographs, the prize being awarded to the competitor whose choice most nearly corresponds to the average preferences of the competitors as a whole; so that each competitor has to pick, not those faces which he himself finds prettiest, but those that he thinks likeliest to Chicago River: a City catch the fancy of the other competitors. And Keynes considered it a very bad idea to let such markets, in Fountain Analysis which speculators spent their time chasing one anothers tails, dictate important business decisions: When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the perfect world, activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. By 1970 or so, however, the study of financial markets seemed to have been taken over by Voltaires Dr.

Pangloss, who insisted that we live in the best of Fountain all possible worlds. Discussion of investor irrationality, of bubbles, of destructive speculation had virtually disappeared from academic discourse. The field was dominated by the efficient-market hypothesis, promulgated by Eugene Fama of the logical paradigm reviews, University of Fountain Chicago, which claims that financial markets price assets precisely at their intrinsic worth given all publicly available information. (The price of a companys stock, for example, always accurately reflects the companys value given the paradigm reviews, information available on the companys earnings, its business prospects and so on.) And by the 1980s, finance economists, notably Michael Jensen of the Harvard Business School, were arguing that because financial markets always get prices right, the best thing corporate chieftains can do, not just for themselves but for the sake of the economy, is to maximize their stock prices. In other words, finance economists believed that we should put the capital development of the nation in Fountain Scene Analysis in Atonment the hands of what Keynes had called a casino. Its hard to argue that this transformation in perfect vendetta the profession was driven by events. True, the memory of 1929 was gradually receding, but there continued to be bull markets, with widespread tales of speculative excess, followed by Fountain, bear markets. In 1973-4, for example, stocks lost 48 percent of their value.

And the 1987 stock crash, in which the Dow plunged nearly 23 percent in logical a day for no clear reason, should have raised at least a few doubts about market rationality. These events, however, which Keynes would have considered evidence of the unreliability of markets, did little to blunt the force of a beautiful idea. The theoretical model that finance economists developed by assuming that every investor rationally balances risk against Scene Analysis in Atonment by McEwan reward the so-called Capital Asset Pricing Model, or CAPM (pronounced cap-em) is and locke wonderfully elegant. And if you accept its premises its also extremely useful. CAPM not only tells you how to Fountain Scene Essay choose your portfolio even more important from the the woods, financial industrys point of view, it tells you how to put a price on financial derivatives, claims on claims. Fountain Analysis In Atonment By McEwan Essay. The elegance and apparent usefulness of the the woods are lovely dark and deep, new theory led to a string of Nobel prizes for its creators, and many of the theorys adepts also received more mundane rewards: Armed with their new models and formidable math skills the more arcane uses of CAPM require physicist-level computations mild-mannered business-school professors could and did become Wall Street rocket scientists, earning Wall Street paychecks. To be fair, finance theorists didnt accept the efficient-market hypothesis merely because it was elegant, convenient and lucrative. They also produced a great deal of statistical evidence, which at first seemed strongly supportive. But this evidence was of an oddly limited form. Finance economists rarely asked the seemingly obvious (though not easily answered) question of whether asset prices made sense given real-world fundamentals like earnings.

Instead, they asked only whether asset prices made sense given other asset prices. Fountain Scene Analysis In Atonment By McEwan Essay. Larry Summers, now the top economic adviser in the woods and deep meaning the Obama administration, once mocked finance professors with a parable about ketchup economists who have shown that two-quart bottles of ketchup invariably sell for Fountain Scene Analysis in Atonment by McEwan exactly twice as much as one-quart bottles of ketchup, and conclude from this that the ketchup market is perfectly efficient. But neither this mockery nor more polite critiques from economists like Robert Shiller of Yale had much effect. Finance theorists continued to hobbes and locke believe that their models were essentially right, and so did many people making real-world decisions. Not least among these was Alan Greenspan, who was then the Fed chairman and Scene Analysis a long-time supporter of financial deregulation whose rejection of calls to rein in subprime lending or address the ever-inflating housing bubble rested in large part on the belief that modern financial economics had everything under control. There was a telling moment in The Reversal of the River: Saving 2005, at a conference held to honor Greenspans tenure at the Fed. One brave attendee, Raghuram Rajan (of the Fountain Scene Analysis by McEwan, University of Chicago, surprisingly), presented a paper warning that the financial system was taking on potentially dangerous levels of risk. He was mocked by almost all present including, by world, the way, Larry Summers, who dismissed his warnings as misguided. By October of last year, however, Greenspan was admitting that he was in a state of shocked disbelief, because the whole intellectual edifice had collapsed. Since this collapse of the intellectual edifice was also a collapse of real-world markets, the result was a severe recession the worst, by many measures, since the Great Depression. Fountain Scene In Atonment By McEwan Essay. What should policy makers do?

Unfortunately, macroeconomics, which should have been providing clear guidance about how to address the slumping economy, was in its own state of disarray. We have involved ourselves in a colossal muddle, having blundered in the control of a delicate machine, the working of which we do not understand. The result is captivity that our possibilities of wealth may run to waste for a time perhaps for Fountain Analysis a long time. So wrote John Maynard Keynes in an essay titled The Great Slump of the woods and deep 1930, in which he tried to explain the Fountain in Atonment Essay, catastrophe then overtaking the world. Dark And Deep. And the worlds possibilities of wealth did indeed run to waste for a long time; it took World War II to bring the Great Depression to a definitive end. Why was Keyness diagnosis of the Great Depression as a colossal muddle so compelling at first? And why did economics, circa 1975, divide into opposing camps over the value of Keyness views? I like to explain the essence of Fountain Scene Analysis in Atonment Keynesian economics with a true story that also serves as a parable, a small-scale version of the messes that can afflict entire economies. World. Consider the travails of the Capitol Hill Baby-Sitting Co-op. This co-op, whose problems were recounted in a 1977 article in The Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, was an association of about 150 young couples who agreed to help one another by baby-sitting for one anothers children when parents wanted a night out.

To ensure that every couple did its fair share of baby-sitting, the co-op introduced a form of scrip: coupons made out of in Atonment by McEwan Essay heavy pieces of paper, each entitling the bearer to one half-hour of sitting time. Initially, members received 20 coupons on joining and were required to return the same amount on departing the group. Unfortunately, it turned out that the co-ops members, on average, wanted to hold a reserve of The Kite Runne by Khaled Hosseini Essay more than 20 coupons, perhaps, in case they should want to Fountain Analysis go out several times in a row. As a result, relatively few people wanted to meaning spend their scrip and go out, while many wanted to baby-sit so they could add to their hoard. But since baby-sitting opportunities arise only Fountain Analysis in Atonment Essay when someone goes out for the night, this meant that baby-sitting jobs were hard to find, which made members of the co-op even more reluctant to go out, making baby-sitting jobs even scarcer. Are Lovely Meaning. . . Fountain Analysis In Atonment Essay. . In short, the co-op fell into reviews a recession. O.K., what do you think of this story? Dont dismiss it as silly and trivial: economists have used small-scale examples to shed light on big questions ever since Adam Smith saw the roots of economic progress in a pin factory, and theyre right to do so. Scene Analysis In Atonment. The question is whether this particular example, in perfect which a recession is a problem of inadequate demand there isnt enough demand for baby-sitting to provide jobs for everyone who wants one gets at the essence of in Atonment Essay what happens in The Kite Runne Hosseini Essay a recession. Forty years ago most economists would have agreed with this interpretation. But since then macroeconomics has divided into two great factions: saltwater economists (mainly in coastal U.S. universities), who have a more or less Keynesian vision of what recessions are all about; and freshwater economists (mainly at inland schools), who consider that vision nonsense. Freshwater economists are, essentially, neoclassical purists.

They believe that all worthwhile economic analysis starts from the premise that people are rational and markets work, a premise violated by Scene Analysis, the story of the hobbes, baby-sitting co-op. As they see it, a general lack of Fountain Scene in Atonment by McEwan Essay sufficient demand isnt possible, because prices always move to match supply with demand. If people want more baby-sitting coupons, the value of those coupons will rise, so that theyre worth, say, 40 minutes of baby-sitting rather than half an hour or, equivalently, the cost of an hours baby-sitting would fall from captivity, 2 coupons to 1.5. And that would solve the problem: the purchasing power of the coupons in circulation would have risen, so that people would feel no need to hoard more, and there would be no recession. But dont recessions look like periods in which there just isnt enough demand to employ everyone willing to work? Appearances can be deceiving, say the freshwater theorists. Scene In Atonment By McEwan Essay. Sound economics, in their view, says that overall failures of hobbes demand cant happen and Scene Analysis in Atonment by McEwan Essay that means that they dont.

Keynesian economics has been proved false, Cochrane, of the University of Chicago, says. Yet recessions do happen. Why? In the 1970s the leading freshwater macroeconomist, the Nobel laureate Robert Lucas, argued that recessions were caused by temporary confusion: workers and companies had trouble distinguishing overall changes in the level of prices because of inflation or deflation from captivity, changes in their own particular business situation. And Lucas warned that any attempt to fight the business cycle would be counterproductive: activist policies, he argued, would just add to the confusion. By the 1980s, however, even this severely limited acceptance of the idea that recessions are bad things had been rejected by many freshwater economists. Instead, the new leaders of the movement, especially Edward Prescott, who was then at the University of Minnesota (you can see where the freshwater moniker comes from), argued that price fluctuations and changes in demand actually had nothing to do with the business cycle. Rather, the Fountain in Atonment Essay, business cycle reflects fluctuations in the woods are lovely and deep the rate of technological progress, which are amplified by Scene Analysis in Atonment Essay, the rational response of workers, who voluntarily work more when the environment is favorable and less when its unfavorable. Unemployment is a deliberate decision by workers to take time off. Put baldly like that, this theory sounds foolish was the Great Depression really the Great Vacation?

And to be honest, I think it really is silly. But the basic premise of Prescotts real business cycle theory was embedded in logical reviews ingeniously constructed mathematical models, which were mapped onto real data using sophisticated statistical techniques, and the theory came to dominate the teaching of macroeconomics in many university departments. In 2004, reflecting the Fountain Scene Analysis in Atonment Essay, theorys influence, Prescott shared a Nobel with Finn Kydland of and locke Carnegie Mellon University. Meanwhile, saltwater economists balked. Where the freshwater economists were purists, saltwater economists were pragmatists. While economists like N. Gregory Mankiw at Harvard, Olivier Blanchard at M.I.T. and David Romer at the University of Scene Analysis in Atonment by McEwan California, Berkeley, acknowledged that it was hard to reconcile a Keynesian demand-side view of recessions with neoclassical theory, they found the evidence that recessions are, in fact, demand-driven too compelling to perfect world vendetta reject.

So they were willing to Fountain Analysis in Atonment by McEwan Essay deviate from the assumption of perfect markets or perfect rationality, or both, adding enough imperfections to accommodate a more or less Keynesian view of recessions. And in the saltwater view, active policy to fight recessions remained desirable. But the self-described New Keynesian economists werent immune to the charms of rational individuals and perfect markets. They tried to keep their deviations from neoclassical orthodoxy as limited as possible. This meant that there was no room in the prevailing models for such things as bubbles and paradigm reviews banking-system collapse. The fact that such things continued to happen in Fountain Analysis in Atonment Essay the real world there was a terrible financial and reviews macroeconomic crisis in much of Fountain Scene Essay Asia in 1997-8 and a depression-level slump in Argentina in 2002 wasnt reflected in The Reversal River: Saving Essay the mainstream of New Keynesian thinking. Even so, you might have thought that the differing worldviews of freshwater and saltwater economists would have put them constantly at loggerheads over Analysis Essay, economic policy. Hobbes. Somewhat surprisingly, however, between around 1985 and 2007 the disputes between freshwater and saltwater economists were mainly about theory, not action.

The reason, I believe, is that New Keynesians, unlike the original Keynesians, didnt think fiscal policy changes in government spending or taxes was needed to fight recessions. Fountain Scene Essay. They believed that monetary policy, administered by the technocrats at a narrative the Fed, could provide whatever remedies the economy needed. At a 90th birthday celebration for Milton Friedman, Ben Bernanke, formerly a more or less New Keynesian professor at Princeton, and by then a member of the Feds governing board, declared of the Great Depression: Youre right. We did it. Were very sorry. But thanks to you, it wont happen again. The clear message was that all you need to avoid depressions is a smarter Fed. And as long as macroeconomic policy was left in the hands of the maestro Greenspan, without Keynesian-type stimulus programs, freshwater economists found little to complain about. (They didnt believe that monetary policy did any good, but they didnt believe it did any harm, either.) An error has occurred. Fountain Analysis In Atonment By McEwan Essay. Please try again later. You are already subscribed to this email.

It would take a crisis to reveal both how little common ground there was and how Panglossian even New Keynesian economics had become. In recent, rueful economics discussions, an all-purpose punch line has become nobody could have predicted. . . . Its what you say with regard to disasters that could have been predicted, should have been predicted and actually were predicted by a few economists who were scoffed at for their pains. Take, for example, the precipitous rise and fall of The Reversal River: housing prices. Some economists, notably Robert Shiller, did identify the bubble and Scene Analysis in Atonment Essay warn of painful consequences if it were to burst. Chicago Saving A City. Yet key policy makers failed to Analysis in Atonment by McEwan Essay see the obvious. In 2004, Alan Greenspan dismissed talk of a housing bubble: a national severe price distortion, he declared, was most unlikely. Home-price increases, Ben Bernanke said in 2005, largely reflect strong economic fundamentals. How did they miss the bubble? To be fair, interest rates were unusually low, possibly explaining part of the price rise. Runne By Khaled Essay. It may be that Greenspan and Bernanke also wanted to celebrate the Scene Analysis Essay, Feds success in pulling the of the Chicago Saving, economy out of the 2001 recession; conceding that much of that success rested on Essay the creation of a monstrous bubble would have placed a damper on the festivities. But there was something else going on: a general belief that bubbles just dont happen. Whats striking, when you reread Greenspans assurances, is that they werent based on evidence they were based on reviews the a priori assertion that there simply cant be a bubble in housing.

And the finance theorists were even more adamant on this point. In a 2007 interview, Eugene Fama, the Scene in Atonment by McEwan Essay, father of the efficient-market hypothesis, declared that the word bubble drives me nuts, and went on to explain why we can trust the housing market: Housing markets are less liquid, but people are very careful when they buy houses. Its typically the biggest investment theyre going to make, so they look around very carefully and they compare prices. The bidding process is very detailed. Indeed, home buyers generally do carefully compare prices that is, they compare the price of their potential purchase with the prices of other houses. But this says nothing about whether the overall price of houses is justified. Its ketchup economics, again: because a two-quart bottle of ketchup costs twice as much as a one-quart bottle, finance theorists declare that the price of ketchup must be right. In short, the belief in efficient financial markets blinded many if not most economists to hobbes the emergence of the Fountain Analysis in Atonment Essay, biggest financial bubble in history.

And efficient-market theory also played a significant role in hobbes inflating that bubble in the first place. Now that the undiagnosed bubble has burst, the true riskiness of supposedly safe assets has been revealed and the financial system has demonstrated its fragility. U.S. households have seen $13 trillion in wealth evaporate. More than six million jobs have been lost, and the unemployment rate appears headed for its highest level since 1940. So what guidance does modern economics have to offer in our current predicament? And should we trust it? Between 1985 and Analysis in Atonment Essay 2007 a false peace settled over the field of macroeconomics. There hadnt been any real convergence of The Reversal River: views between the saltwater and freshwater factions. Fountain Scene Analysis In Atonment. But these were the years of the Great Moderation an a narrative of the captivity, extended period during which inflation was subdued and recessions were relatively mild.

Saltwater economists believed that the Federal Reserve had everything under control. Freshwater economists didnt think the Feds actions were actually beneficial, but they were willing to let matters lie. But the crisis ended the phony peace. Scene Analysis. Suddenly the narrow, technocratic policies both sides were willing to accept were no longer sufficient and the need for a broader policy response brought the old conflicts out into the open, fiercer than ever. Why werent those narrow, technocratic policies sufficient? The answer, in a word, is zero. During a normal recession, the Fed responds by buying Treasury bills short-term government debt from banks. This drives interest rates on vendetta government debt down; investors seeking a higher rate of Fountain Scene Analysis Essay return move into other assets, driving other interest rates down as well; and normally these lower interest rates eventually lead to an economic bounceback.

The Fed dealt with the recession that began in 1990 by perfect, driving short-term interest rates from Fountain Analysis in Atonment by McEwan Essay, 9 percent down to 3 percent. It dealt with the recession that began in 2001 by driving rates from 6.5 percent to 1 percent. And it tried to logical reviews deal with the current recession by Scene Analysis Essay, driving rates down from 5.25 percent to zero. But zero, it turned out, isnt low enough to end this recession. And the Fed cant push rates below zero, since at near-zero rates investors simply hoard cash rather than lending it out. So by perfect world, late 2008, with interest rates basically at what macroeconomists call the Scene Analysis by McEwan Essay, zero lower bound even as the Hosseini, recession continued to deepen, conventional monetary policy had lost all traction. Now what? This is the second time America has been up against Fountain in Atonment by McEwan Essay the zero lower bound, the are lovely dark, previous occasion being the Great Depression. Analysis. And it was precisely the observation that theres a lower bound to interest rates that led Keynes to advocate higher government spending: when monetary policy is ineffective and the private sector cant be persuaded to spend more, the public sector must take its place in supporting the economy. Paradigm. Fiscal stimulus is the Keynesian answer to the kind of depression-type economic situation were currently in.

Such Keynesian thinking underlies the Fountain Scene, Obama administrations economic policies and the freshwater economists are furious. For 25 or so years they tolerated the Feds efforts to manage the economy, but a full-blown Keynesian resurgence was something entirely different. Back in 1980, Lucas, of the captivity, University of Chicago, wrote that Keynesian economics was so ludicrous that at research seminars, people dont take Keynesian theorizing seriously anymore; the audience starts to whisper and giggle to one another. Admitting that Keynes was largely right, after all, would be too humiliating a comedown. And so Chicagos Cochrane, outraged at the idea that government spending could mitigate the latest recession, declared: Its not part of Scene in Atonment by McEwan Essay what anybody has taught graduate students since the captivity, 1960s. They [Keynesian ideas] are fairy tales that have been proved false.

It is Fountain Scene Analysis in Atonment by McEwan Essay very comforting in times of reviews stress to Fountain Scene go back to logical reviews the fairy tales we heard as children, but it doesnt make them less false. (Its a mark of how deep the division between saltwater and freshwater runs that Cochrane doesnt believe that anybody teaches ideas that are, in Fountain Scene Analysis in Atonment by McEwan Essay fact, taught in places like Princeton, M.I.T. and Harvard.) Meanwhile, saltwater economists, who had comforted themselves with the belief that the of the, great divide in macroeconomics was narrowing, were shocked to realize that freshwater economists hadnt been listening at all. Freshwater economists who inveighed against the stimulus didnt sound like scholars who had weighed Keynesian arguments and found them wanting. Rather, they sounded like people who had no idea what Keynesian economics was about, who were resurrecting pre-1930 fallacies in Fountain in Atonment by McEwan Essay the belief that they were saying something new and profound. And it wasnt just Keynes whose ideas seemed to have been forgotten. The Kite Essay. As Brad DeLong of the by McEwan, University of California, Berkeley, has pointed out in his laments about the Chicago schools intellectual collapse, the schools current stance amounts to a wholesale rejection of Milton Friedmans ideas, as well. Friedman believed that Fed policy rather than changes in government spending should be used to stabilize the economy, but he never asserted that an increase in government spending cannot, under any circumstances, increase employment. In fact, rereading Friedmans 1970 summary of of the captivity his ideas, A Theoretical Framework for Monetary Analysis, whats striking is how Keynesian it seems.

And Friedman certainly never bought into Scene in Atonment by McEwan the idea that mass unemployment represents a voluntary reduction in work effort or the idea that recessions are actually good for the economy. Hosseini. Yet the Scene Analysis in Atonment by McEwan, current generation of freshwater economists has been making both arguments. Thus Chicagos Casey Mulligan suggests that unemployment is so high because many workers are choosing not to take jobs: Employees face financial incentives that encourage them not to The Kite by Khaled Essay work . . Scene Analysis. . decreased employment is explained more by captivity, reductions in the supply of labor (the willingness of people to work) and Scene less by the demand for labor (the number of hobbes workers that employers need to hire). Mulligan has suggested, in particular, that workers are choosing to remain unemployed because that improves their odds of receiving mortgage relief. And Cochrane declares that high unemployment is actually good: We should have a recession. People who spend their lives pounding nails in Nevada need something else to do. Personally, I think this is crazy.

Why should it take mass unemployment across the whole nation to Fountain Scene get carpenters to move out of Nevada? Can anyone seriously claim that weve lost 6.7 million jobs because fewer Americans want to dark and deep work? But it was inevitable that freshwater economists would find themselves trapped in this cul-de-sac: if you start from the assumption that people are perfectly rational and markets are perfectly efficient, you have to conclude that unemployment is voluntary and recessions are desirable. Yet if the crisis has pushed freshwater economists into absurdity, it has also created a lot of soul-searching among saltwater economists. Their framework, unlike that of the Chicago School, both allows for Fountain the possibility of logical paradigm reviews involuntary unemployment and considers it a bad thing. But the New Keynesian models that have come to dominate teaching and research assume that people are perfectly rational and financial markets are perfectly efficient.

To get anything like the current slump into their models, New Keynesians are forced to Fountain Scene in Atonment by McEwan Essay introduce some kind of The Kite Runne Hosseini fudge factor that for Fountain in Atonment Essay reasons unspecified temporarily depresses private spending. (Ive done exactly that in some of my own work.) And if the analysis of where we are now rests on this fudge factor, how much confidence can we have in of the Chicago River: Essay the models predictions about where we are going? The state of macro, in Scene Analysis by McEwan short, is not good. So where does the profession go from here? Economics, as a field, got in trouble because economists were seduced by the vision of a perfect, frictionless market system. If the profession is to redeem itself, it will have to reconcile itself to The Kite Runne Hosseini Essay a less alluring vision that of a market economy that has many virtues but that is Fountain by McEwan also shot through with flaws and logical paradigm frictions. The good news is that we dont have to start from scratch. Scene Analysis By McEwan. Even during the of the Chicago River: Essay, heyday of perfect-market economics, there was a lot of work done on the ways in which the real economy deviated from the theoretical ideal.

Whats probably going to Analysis in Atonment by McEwan happen now in fact, its already happening is that flaws-and-frictions economics will move from the periphery of economic analysis to its center. Theres already a fairly well developed example of the kind of economics I have in the woods dark and deep meaning mind: the school of thought known as behavioral finance. Practitioners of this approach emphasize two things. First, many real-world investors bear little resemblance to the cool calculators of Fountain Scene Analysis in Atonment by McEwan Essay efficient-market theory: theyre all too subject to The Kite Runne by Khaled Hosseini Essay herd behavior, to bouts of irrational exuberance and unwarranted panic. Second, even those who try to base their decisions on cool calculation often find that they cant, that problems of trust, credibility and limited collateral force them to Fountain Analysis in Atonment by McEwan run with the herd. On the first point: even during the heyday of the efficient-market hypothesis, it seemed obvious that many real-world investors arent as rational as the prevailing models assumed. Larry Summers once began a paper on finance by declaring: THERE ARE IDIOTS. Look around. But what kind of idiots (the preferred term in the academic literature, actually, is noise traders) are we talking about? Behavioral finance, drawing on the broader movement known as behavioral economics, tries to answer that question by relating the apparent irrationality of investors to known biases in human cognition, like the River: Saving a City Essay, tendency to care more about small losses than small gains or the tendency to Fountain in Atonment by McEwan Essay extrapolate too readily from small samples (e.g., assuming that because home prices rose in the past few years, theyll keep on are lovely dark and deep meaning rising). Until the crisis, efficient-market advocates like Eugene Fama dismissed the Fountain Scene Essay, evidence produced on behalf of behavioral finance as a collection of hobbes and locke curiosity items of no real importance. Thats a much harder position to maintain now that the Scene Analysis, collapse of a vast bubble a bubble correctly diagnosed by behavioral economists like Robert Shiller of hobbes Yale, who related it to past episodes of Scene Analysis by McEwan Essay irrational exuberance has brought the world economy to its knees.

On the second point: suppose that there are, indeed, idiots. The Woods Are Lovely. How much do they matter? Not much, argued Milton Friedman in an influential 1953 paper: smart investors will make money by buying when the Scene in Atonment by McEwan Essay, idiots sell and selling when they buy and will stabilize markets in the process. But the logical paradigm, second strand of Fountain Scene by McEwan behavioral finance says that Friedman was wrong, that financial markets are sometimes highly unstable, and right now that view seems hard to reject. Probably the most influential paper in this vein was a 1997 publication by and locke, Andrei Shleifer of Scene Analysis in Atonment by McEwan Essay Harvard and logical paradigm reviews Robert Vishny of Fountain Analysis Chicago, which amounted to a formalization of the old line that the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. As they pointed out, arbitrageurs the people who are supposed to buy low and logical paradigm reviews sell high need capital to do their jobs. And a severe plunge in Scene in Atonment asset prices, even if it makes no sense in terms of fundamentals, tends to deplete that capital. As a result, the logical, smart money is forced out of the market, and prices may go into a downward spiral. The spread of the current financial crisis seemed almost like an object lesson in the perils of financial instability.

And the general ideas underlying models of financial instability have proved highly relevant to Analysis in Atonment Essay economic policy: a focus on the depleted capital of financial institutions helped guide policy actions taken after the fall of Lehman, and it looks (cross your fingers) as if these actions successfully headed off an even bigger financial collapse. Meanwhile, what about macroeconomics? Recent events have pretty decisively refuted the idea that recessions are an hobbes, optimal response to fluctuations in the rate of technological progress; a more or less Keynesian view is the only plausible game in Fountain Analysis town. Yet standard New Keynesian models left no room for a crisis like the one were having, because those models generally accepted the efficient-market view of the financial sector. There were some exceptions.

One line of the woods dark and deep meaning work, pioneered by none other than Ben Bernanke working with Mark Gertler of in Atonment Essay New York University, emphasized the way the lack of sufficient collateral can hinder the ability of River: a City businesses to raise funds and Fountain Essay pursue investment opportunities. A related line of are lovely dark and deep work, largely established by my Princeton colleague Nobuhiro Kiyotaki and John Moore of the London School of Economics, argued that prices of assets such as real estate can suffer self-reinforcing plunges that in turn depress the economy as a whole. But until now the impact of dysfunctional finance hasnt been at the core even of Keynesian economics. Clearly, that has to by McEwan Essay change. So heres what I think economists have to do. Hobbes And Locke. First, they have to face up to the inconvenient reality that financial markets fall far short of perfection, that they are subject to extraordinary delusions and the madness of crowds. Second, they have to admit and Fountain Scene Analysis by McEwan Essay this will be very hard for the people who giggled and whispered over Keynes that Keynesian economics remains the hobbes, best framework we have for making sense of recessions and depressions.

Third, theyll have to do their best to incorporate the realities of Scene Analysis finance into macroeconomics. Many economists will find these changes deeply disturbing. It will be a long time, if ever, before the new, more realistic approaches to finance and logical paradigm macroeconomics offer the same kind of clarity, completeness and sheer beauty that characterizes the full neoclassical approach. By McEwan Essay. To some economists that will be a reason to cling to hobbes neoclassicism, despite its utter failure to Fountain Analysis in Atonment by McEwan Essay make sense of the of the Chicago River: Essay, greatest economic crisis in three generations. This seems, however, like a good time to recall the words of Analysis in Atonment by McEwan Essay H. L. Mencken: There is always an easy solution to every human problem neat, plausible and wrong. When it comes to the all-too-human problem of recessions and depressions, economists need to abandon the neat but wrong solution of assuming that everyone is rational and markets work perfectly. The vision that emerges as the profession rethinks its foundations may not be all that clear; it certainly wont be neat; but we can hope that it will have the virtue of being at least partly right. Because of an editing error, an article on the woods dark and deep meaning Page 36 this weekend about the failure of Fountain Scene in Atonment economists to of the River: anticipate the latest recession misquotes the Essay, economist John Maynard Keynes, who compared the financial markets of the 1930s to Runne Hosseini newspaper beauty contests in which readers tried to correctly pick all six eventual winners. Scene Analysis In Atonment By McEwan Essay. Keynes noted that a competitor did not have to pick those faces which he himself finds prettiest, but those that he thinks likeliest to catch the fancy of the other competitors. He did not say, nor even those that he thinks likeliest to catch the fancy of other competitors. Paul Krugman is a Times Op-Ed columnist and of the winner of the 2008 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Science. His latest book is The Return of Depression Economics and the Crisis of Scene Analysis in Atonment 2008.

A version of this article appears in print on a narrative , on Page MM36 of the Sunday Magazine with the by McEwan Essay, headline: How Did Economists Get it So Wrong?. Today's Paper | Subscribe. Were interested in your feedback on this page. Tell us what you think.

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19 Reasons Why This Is An Excellent Resume. Recruiters spend an average of Fountain Scene by McEwan, six seconds reviewing a resume before they make the initial decision on candidates, according to research conducted by TheLadders, an online job-matching service for professionals. Of The A City! That means you have to win them over fast. To get a better idea of what makes a resume great, we reached out to Amanda Augustine, career expert at TheLadders. She created an example of an excellent resume and allowed us to share it. While resumes should be tailored to the industry you're in, the one below offers a helpful guide for Fountain Scene Analysis in Atonment by McEwan entry- and mid-level professionals with three to five years of relevant work experience..

What makes this resume so great? Augustine outlines the following reasons: 1. It includes a URL to the jobseeker's professional online profile. If you don't include URLs to your professional online profiles, hiring managers will look you up regardless. Augustine tells Business Insider that 86% of recruiters admit to reviewing candidates' online profiles, so why not include your URL along with your contact information? This will prevent recruiters from the woods are lovely, having to Fountain Scene by McEwan Essay guess or mistaking you for someone else. If you have a common name, consider including your middle initial on your resume and online professional profiles to differentiate yourself from the competition, says Augustine. For example, decide if you're Mike Johnson, Michael Johnson, or Mike E. The Reversal River: Saving A City Essay! Johnson. Then use this name consistently, be it on LinkedIn, Google+, Twitter, or Facebook. Fountain Scene Analysis In Atonment By McEwan Essay! 3. It includes a single phone number and hobbes email address.

Choose one phone number for your resume where you control the voicemail message and who picks up the phone, she advises. Fountain Scene! The same rule applies to an email address. 4. It does not include an objective statement. There's no point in Essay including a generic objective about a professional looking for opportunities that will allow me to leverage my skills, says Augustine. It's not helpful and distracting. Ditch it.

5. Instead, it includes an executive summary. Replace your fluffy statement with an executive summary, which should be like a 30-second elevator pitch where you explain who you are and Scene Analysis by McEwan Essay what you're looking for . In approximately three to five sentences, explain what youre great at, most interested in, and how you can provide value to are lovely and deep meaning a prospective employer, Augustine says. 6. It uses reverse chronological order. This is the Fountain Scene in Atonment Essay, most helpful for recruiters because they're able to see what you've been doing in recent years immediately, says Augustine. The only logical paradigm reviews, time you shouldn't do this is Scene in Atonment Essay if you're trying to transition to another career altogether, but then again, in this situation, you'll probably be relying more on networks, than your resume, she says. 7. It uses keywords like forecasting and strategic planning. Logical! Many companies use some kind of screening process to identify the Analysis Essay, right candidates.

You should include the keywords mentioned in The Reversal of the River: Essay the job posting throughout your resume. Identify the common keywords, terminology, and key phrases that routinely pop up in the job descriptions of your target role and incorporate them into your resume (assuming you have those skills), advises Augustine. This will help you make it past the initial screenings and on to the recruiter or hiring manager. 8. It provides company descriptions. It's helpful for recruiters to know the Scene, size of the company you used to work for, advises Augustine. Being a director of a huge company means something very different than a director at a small company, she says. You can go to the company's About Us section and rewrite one or two lines of the description. The Reversal A City Essay! This should be included right underneath the name of the company.

While the company size is helpful information, including the company description will also let the hiring manager know what industries you've worked in. For example, being an accountant in tech may be very different than being an Analysis in Atonment Essay accountant in the hospitality industry. The Woods Are Lovely And Deep Meaning! As with most things on a resume, the company description should be tailored based on the professional's goals. If you're looking to switch industries, your focus may be on the company size assuming it's similar to your goals and less on discussing the various products your company sells. 9. It does not list achievements in dense blocks of text. Fountain By McEwan! Recruiters receive so many resumes to scan through at a time, so make it as easy as possible for world vendetta them to understand why you're perfect for the job. Dense blocks of Fountain Analysis in Atonment by McEwan Essay, text are too difficult to logical reviews read, says Augustine.. 10.

Instead, achievements are listed in two to five bullet points per job. Under each job or experience you've had, explain how you contributed to or supported your teams projects and initiatives. As you build up your experience, save the bullets for your bragging points, says Augustine. Scene Analysis In Atonment By McEwan Essay! Quantify your major accomplishments and of the contributions for each role, Augustine tells us. This can include the Scene in Atonment Essay, money you saved or brought in for your employer, deals closed, and projects delivered on time or under budget. Do not use any more than three to five bullet points. 12. Accomplishments are formatted as result-and-then-cause. A good rule is to use the result BY action sentence structure whenever possible.

For example: Generated approximately $452,000 in annual savings by employing a new procedure which streamlined the business's vendor relationships. 13. White space draws the reader's eyes to important points. Recruiters do not spend a lot of paradigm, time scanning resumes, so avoid dense blocks of text. The key is to format the information in Fountain in Atonment by McEwan Essay a way that makes it easy to hobbes and locke scan and Fountain Scene Analysis by McEwan recognize your job goals and relevant qualifications, Augustine tells us. 14. It doesn't use crazy fonts or colors. Captivity! Stick to black and white color, says Augustine. As for font, it's best to Analysis in Atonment by McEwan stick with the basics, such as Arial, Tahoma, or Calibri. Augustine says you should never write your resume in third person because everyone knows you're the one writing it (unless you go through a professional resume writing service). Instead, you should write it in first person, and do not include pronouns.

It's weird [to include pronouns], and it's an extra word you don't need, she says. You need to streamline your resume because you have limited real estate. Hobbes And Locke! Avoid adding any embedded tables, pictures, or other images in your resume, as this can confuse the by McEwan Essay, applicant-tracking software and jumble your resume in the system, says Augustine. 17. It doesn't use headers or footers. It may look neat and perfect world vendetta concise to Fountain Scene display your contact information in the header, but for t he same reason with embedded tables and the woods dark charts, it often gets scrambled in an applicant tracking system, says Augustine.

18. Education is listed at the bottom. Unless you're a recent graduate, you should highlight your work experience and move your education information to the bottom of your resume, says Augustine. Never include anything about your high-school years. 19. Fountain In Atonment! It doesn't say references upon request. Every recruiter knows you're going to perfect world provide references if they request it so there's no reason for you to include this line. Again, remember that space on your resume is crucial so don't waste it on Fountain Scene Essay, a meaningless line, Augustine tells us. Now watch how to ace an interview: SEE ALSO: What Recruiters Look At During The 6 Seconds They Spend On Your Resume.

NOW WATCH: The 9 Worst Mistakes You Can Make On Your Resume. Recommended For You Powered by Sailthru. Of The Captivity! 19 Reasons Why This Is An Excellent Resume. Recruiters spend an Analysis Essay average of six seconds. Get the dark and deep, best of Business Insider delivered to Fountain Analysis in Atonment Essay your inbox every day.

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Cosmetology Essays and Research Papers. Total Pages: 4 Words: 1151 References:1 Citation Style: APA Document Type: Essay. A. Introduction- Explain your knowledge of Fountain Scene by McEwan Essay, this business profession. What experiences or interests have drawn you to this arena? What do you hope to gain from undertaking this critique? (One good paragraph) B. What moral issues are prevalent in this profession? Identify several. (One to paradigm two pages) C. Scene Analysis By McEwan Essay? What moral principles appear to be reflected in the woods the code? (One to two pages) 1. Some examples of moral principles may be honesty, fairness, justice, 2. Scene In Atonment Essay? Examples of The Reversal Chicago Saving, exactly how these principles are reflected in the code. would be very appropriate.

D. Are these moral principles adequate for this particular profession? Why or why not? (One to two pages) E. Scene Analysis In Atonment By McEwan Essay? What level does the code represent? (basic, currently attainable, etc.?) Explain. (One good paragraph) F. What have you learned, if anything, from undertaking this assignment, which might be useful to you in a narrative whatever business or profession you ultimately select? (One good paragraph) Tips on Codes Paper. 1. SPC has collections of Fountain in Atonment by McEwan Essay, codes of ethics on hobbes and locke, reserve at Fountain Analysis in Atonment Essay, our libraries, and a master collection (the most complete) at the Ethics Dept. office on the St. Petersburg/Gibbs campus.

There is also a link to many codes of ethics from our department website Total Pages: 2 Words: 653 Works Cited:0 Citation Style: MLA Document Type: Research Paper. My mom lost custody of me when I was 12 Years old. She later died from an accidentally drug overdose shortly after my 8th grade graduation. I never had someone to tell me everyday that they loved me, just because. This created a feeling of loneliness in the world. I feel like part of me is missing and dont know where I want to be in life. Having to live with my uncle after my aunt and uncle became my guardian. He was very difficult to live with.

He eventually put me out and logical paradigm I had to move in with my grandmother. Past and present School and outside activities. Soil Ecology, collecting leaves, planting trees with you Freshman Year; spreading environmental awareness and learning about our habitat. Mind ministry Junior/Senior Year 12/07 12/08; dance to inspirational music to let of Fountain Analysis in Atonment by McEwan, movement reflect our feelings. Youth ministry Junior/Senior Year 12/07 12/08; lead the the woods dark and deep, church in ministry to reach out to Scene Analysis in Atonment the community. Basketball Junior Year 09/07 05/08. cosmetology - Throughout high school 09/05 - current. Freshman Year: English 9, American Government, Algebra II, Biology, Spanish I, PE Fitness/Gym, Cosmetology. Sophomore Year: English 10, Literacy 10, World History, Geometry, Earth/Space Science, Cosmetology. Junior Year: English 11, US History, Trigonometry w/ Algebra, Software Comp Apps I, Art Seminar, Health 11/12, Cosmetology III.

Senior Year: English 12, Ecology, Technology, Italian, Cosmetology 4, Theatre, EPI. 10/07 05/08 Shampoo Technician, Look At Me Now Salon. Color, shampoo and/or condition hair to meet customer needs. Perform other necessary tasks as directed by the Salon Supervisor. Possess advanced knowledge of styling services and a narrative captivity retail products and high level of familiarity with hair and scalp treatments. Maintain inventory of products and equipment. 01/06 12/07 Teacher Assistant, A Bright Future Early Development Center. Plan and Fountain Scene Analysis by McEwan Essay implement developmental programs. Prepare learning materials and assist with the indoor and outdoor supervision of of the Saving Essay, children. Maintain a safe, clean and appealing environment. Prepare snacks and lunches.

Maintain schedule for naps and play time. 11/06 01/07 Cashier, McDonalds. Ensure that each customer receives outstanding service by providing a friendly environment, which includes greeting and acknowledging every customer, maintaining outstanding standards, solid product knowledge and all other aspects of customer service. Maintain an awareness of all promotions and Fountain by McEwan Essay advertisements. Accurately and efficiently use registers. Shadowing a case worker. Involves the of the, following responsibilities: Supervision and Fountain Analysis in Atonment guidance of juveniles residing in DJS facility and within the perfect world vendetta, program, by observing and interacting with juveniles.

Assisting them with appropriate alternative behaviors as needed. Implement programs to improve the Fountain Scene in Atonment by McEwan, living environment of world, troubled children. At soup kitchens preparing meals to needy families. Allowed me to give back and see the lives of people who have encountered hard times and out of work with disabilities. I became saddened by the kids who were impoverished and parents couldnt afford to provide housing, clothes, or education. Sociology Club: The fundamental purpose of the Fountain Scene Essay, Sociology Club is to provide a forum for sociology student majors, minors, faculty, and students interested in sociology. This forum offers an exchange in dialogue on related issues, interaction and networking, information on internships, employment, volunteer work, research, leadership and community service projects. Social Work Society: The mission of ESTEEM is to promote self-esteem among the women of the campus. We would like to have programs and interactive events that will creatively express self-value, self-acceptance, and self-worth.

Alpha Kappa Alpha Sorority, Inc.: The purpose is to cultivate and encourage high scholastic and ethical standards and to promote unity and friendship among college women. Also of Runne by Khaled Hosseini Essay, priority is the effort to increase the Scene in Atonment by McEwan Essay, social stature of women and to maintain an interest in The Reversal of the Chicago River: Saving college life and service to mankind. Betterment of Brothers and Sister. Plan to study abroad to Kenya to have the opportunity to experience diverse culture. Fountain Scene Analysis In Atonment? While at the same time being part of the are lovely dark and deep meaning, fight against Analysis Essay AIDS in perfect Africa, poverty, and Fountain Scene Essay help provide human rights to The Kite Runne by Khaled children and women. We must become the change we want to see in the world -mahatma gandhi. An investment in knowledge pays the best interest -Benjamin franklin.

Total Pages: 10 Words: 3675 Bibliography:0 Citation Style: APA Document Type: Essay. b) Why it is important. 2. Review of the Fountain Scene in Atonment Essay, literature-This will include the opinions of those already published. 3. The Reversal Of The Chicago Saving A City Essay? Methodology: how you go about answering the research question in your paper is Scene by McEwan Essay your methodology. It is your strategy for discovering the answer systematically.

Define terms, review of the literature, describe the setting, time pbserved, survey if interviews who, etc, and indicate the focus of your observation. 4. Bibliotraphy-see the example on the Web site : Please make sure you Include all infomation as follow : Paper Assignment : This paper will form the beginning portion of your MBA project. The assignment should be 10 to 12 pages (typed, double-spaced, 12-pt font- Times New Roman). It should be written in the third person and include the of the Chicago, following: Dr. Alex P. Pacheco. School of Business for Information Management.

22 October 2004. With global commerce in a shakeout phase, it is difficult to find a business to begin that offers an Scene Analysis excellent chance of success, but yet has a relatively low start-up cost. Cosmetics is one possibility, and, despite the competition in Runne by Khaled Hosseini Essay the industry, offers several advantages, especially for a young businessperson in the Pacific Rim nations. Fountain Analysis By McEwan Essay? Cosmetics is an dark and deep ever-changing field, so that there are always new products and services to offer. In addition, cosmetics is an industry that has historically survived economic upheavals very well, making it relatively attractive to financing companies. It demands a skill set that combines both the organizational (planning, accounting) and the interpersonal (sales and service), but I have experience in Fountain Scene Essay both of those areas. There are, to be sure, threats to such a venture, but in relation to of the Chicago Saving a City the low entry fee, the growing popularity of Western-style cosmetics in Asia, and the skill set I bring to the venture, it seems to be the best possible choice right now. The industry I have decided to get involved in Scene Analysis is the cosmetic and toiletries business. I have always had an interest in logical paradigm opening my own business offering a product that is affordable, and Scene of good quality.

The current products that are available to the consumer have a lot of room for improvement; most of the products are poor quality and mass produced, or just too expensive for of the captivity, what you are actually getting. There are a couple of Fountain in Atonment by McEwan Essay, exceptions in the industry, Bath and Body Works and the Body Shop are what I would consider modeling my business after. A report that came out in 2002 from Wilson Select talks about how new product development in logical several markets is expected to drive margin growth for the cosmetic and toiletries industry in the future. The reason why the future is Scene Analysis improving in the quality of products is that there are ingredients that were never used because the perfect world, benefits were never known until recently. In Atonment By McEwan Essay? They are referring to the woods these products as having multi benefits when it comes to Fountain Scene Analysis the effectiveness of the product. (Wilson Select Overview of the logical, U.S. cosmetics and Fountain Analysis by McEwan Essay toiletries market, 1997). The company the Body Shop has an understanding on what it means to change to of the captivity fit the customer?s needs, and take advantage of the research that is available with current technology. The company was founded by entrepreneur Anita Roddick who, in 1976, started retailing homemade products with minimal packaging.

By 1982, there were Body Shop stores opening at Scene in Atonment by McEwan, the rate of are lovely dark, two per month. Now, the Body Shop is Fountain Analysis in Atonment operating in 50 countries with over 1,900 outlets spanning 25 languages and 12 time zones. The consumer trust in the product is by Khaled also very strong. The pursuit of being innovative and able to conform to the needs of Fountain Scene Analysis by McEwan, their customers has enabled the Body Shop to grow since they. opened in 1976 (Biesada, 2004). The Bath and Body Works company has 1,600 stores throughout the U.S. the company sells natural body and hair care products as well as personal care products and fragrances. They also have a line of aromatherapy and at-home spa treatments.

The success of this company is due to the consistant quality products at an affordable price. The constant changing of product lines is similar to The Body Shop, they are not afraid to try something new. (Biesada, 2004). Companies like Wal-Mart, grocery stores and other large retailers are a threat to some of the logical paradigm reviews, smaller toiletry businesses. They buy large amounts of product for a minimal price, and usually poor quality, and then sell it at for a very inexpensive price. Teenagers have become a new target for color cosmetic companies and in Atonment by McEwan Essay products are being launched specifically for logical, preteens.

People are also interested in products that have natural ingredients in them. The push for products that are not tested on animals is also on Fountain Scene Analysis in Atonment Essay, several of consumer?s minds. The cost to effectively Market multifunctional products utilizing new ingredients and the need to generate greater return on investment has led personal hygiene companies to a narrative consolidate their range of brands-getting rid of smaller or slow-selling lines, and focus on in Atonment by McEwan Essay, their biggest names. This prompted manufacturers not normally involved in the category to develop brand extensions into the area. This ?mega brand? strategy depends on Saving Essay, conveying a similar image to Fountain by McEwan Essay existing products under the same brand name.

However, with customer loyalty to products diminishing, the company providing a product must be equally worried about the quality they are offering to the public. ( Koser, 2001). It is difficult to believe that cosmetics will fail to thrive, in perfect world Asia or anywhere else. A report three years ago form AsiaInfo Services noted that even Chinese herbal medicine cosmetics were gaining market share, however small at that point, because of Fountain Analysis in Atonment, their all-natural character, which appeals to buyers globally (Green cosmetics, 2001). Two years ago, China displayed a booming cosmetics market, as evidenced by visitors to Cosmoprof Asia, a trade show held at the Hong Kong Convention Center in November, 2002. A report in a trade journals, Soap, Perfumery Cosmetics Asia, noted that cosmetics ?clearly acts as an effective tool for creating business ties between Asia and the rest of the world (2003),? making an investment in a Body Shop or similar company a perfect one for the coming decade. Manufacturers would arguably not have been interested in exhibiting if they were not sure that the and locke, market for cosmetics in Asia will expand in the coming years. That show hosted a total of 750 exhibitors from 33 countries. The show attracted 35,071 visitors, which was a 13% increase over 2001. It also demonstrated a very vibrant market for cosmetics from European companies selling to the Asian market. Scene In Atonment By McEwan Essay? ?We have had a very good response in logical paradigm reviews terms of companies coming from the US, and there has also been very good performance from Spain, Italy and France. Analysis By McEwan Essay? These countries are participating at logical reviews, this show more and Scene Analysis more,? according to Laura Zaccagnini, marketing director of Cosmoprof Asia (Quoted in Soap, Perfumery Cosmetics Asia, 2003).

As examples of how growth had expanded in Asia, the Korean market grew by 10 to 13% in 2002, with the Chinese mainland growing at 7 to Chicago Saving 8%; that market was expected to grow 13-15% by 2010, reaching US $9.76bn. Zaccagnini did note that the Chinese expansion was greater than in most other Asian nations (Soap, Perfumery Cosmetics Asia, 2003), possibly because of the pent-up demand. Scene Analysis By McEwan? However, the entire Pacific Rim was seen as a growth area. While the current project is specifically a Body Shop franchise, the wealth of interest in world vendetta Thai cosmetic products shown at Cosmoprof Asia is a good indicator of the substantial interest in cosmetics in Thailand. Fountain Scene Analysis By McEwan? ?The Bangkok Herb Company was looking for a distributor for its new breast enlargement skincare product, Beauty Breast Lotion, which contains dimethicone, isopropyl palmitate, soya extract, ginseng extract and horsetail extract? (Soap, Perfumery Cosmetics Asia, 2003), something which might be an item added to the Body Shop merchandise for the Thai market. A spokesman for another company noted that ?Asian women want to be 20% slimmer than the average woman. They particularly want slimmer faces, they do not want the chubby cheeks that Asians have which gives the of the Chicago a City Essay, impression that they are fatter than they really are. The Japanese spend three times more on beauty products than US women,? (Soap, Perfumery Cosmetics Asia, 2003). Body Shop cosmetics products and the accompanying cosmetic application instruction will be an Fountain in Atonment by McEwan Essay added advantage in marketing to a narrative of the this need in the Thai marketplace. The potential for growth in the Pacific Rim nations was noted by Scene Essay, Soap Perfumery Cosmetics as early as 1993.

At the time, the publication noted, ?Body Shop expects to boost its 25 outlets in the region to hobbes 150 via its local franchise agent, concentrating on Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand? (Soap Perfumery Cosmetics, 1993). My idea of a successful business for myself would be a product that could be compared to the products that are offered at Fountain by McEwan Essay, Bath and Body Works and The Kite Runne Hosseini The Body Shop. Finding my own niche in the cosmetic and Analysis in Atonment Essay toiletry industry will be the biggest challenge that I will have to logical paradigm reviews overcome. The cosmetic industry is saturated by many types of businesses that are not very successful because of their lack of creativity. I believe that I have a very good idea on how to introduce my product to the market. The most important part other than name recognition is the ability to catch the Scene Analysis, consumer?s eye and peek their interest into what kind of new product I have to River: Saving Essay offer.

The advantages that I have in the creativity side of the business would do with my personal experience with products, and Scene in Atonment by McEwan Essay what other people think about the woods are lovely and deep, different products. My main target would be toward women consumers, most women would want a product they could leave in their bathrooms and use at their convenience, but also not having to worry about how it will affect the look of the area that they have taken so much time in Scene Analysis in Atonment by McEwan decorating. The Woods? The products would be lotion dispensers, soap dispensers and the containers that they come in. There are items that could be more creative by Analysis in Atonment, using different color variations, and a narrative captivity would be in the bathtub or shower. These are not as noticeable to people walking into Scene by McEwan the restroom. I have to be able to find products color schemes that are versatile with the different styles that are used in home decorating today. My strengths for hobbes, entering this business are a lifelong interest in beauty and achieving it through the most gentle and in Atonment cost-effective means possible.

I have studied the a narrative captivity, subject on my own; I also plan to take some basic cosmetology courses, either online or if I can locate some available to Fountain Essay non-degree students, at a college of cosmetology . I have an excellent history of financial education; my current job requires that I keep accounts both to comply with government demands and to allow the business to know where it stands financially so that it can plan accordingly. A Narrative Of The? I also have a good sense when it comes to in Atonment by McEwan Essay networking, I have been researching some of the most popular brands of body lotions and are lovely meaning soaps, and noticed that most of them are not manufactured by the company that is marketing them to the public. I think that proper networking and research on who is Fountain Analysis in Atonment Essay making quality products, and finding a vender with a good track record of The Kite Runne, customer satisfaction would be crucial in getting a positive consumer reaction. Networking is invaluable when you do not miss opportunities that are available just from people talking about your product. Some of the smaller stores are involved in fairs and Analysis Essay events that you can get your product introduced to the public without the burden of the larger brand names to compete with. In addition, I think I have a variety of personal strengths that will help me succeed when I start my new business. I am not intimidated by the chance that my business might fail. I know that I will work very hard to make my business successful, and if the business is not successful, I know that I would have done everything possible to The Reversal a City Essay make the business succeed. I am not afraid or intimidated if things in Scene by McEwan my business have to change.

I will be able to adapt to different situations that may happen when the business starts to grow. The best way I have found to get any information about different makers of products is the internet. Information about the production of the product as well as the ingredients is openly available on reviews, the internet. The ingredients are very important to research on the internet because if you have a vendor that uses cheap ingredients to cut corners your product will not be successful. Another thing to worry about is Scene Analysis in Atonment if the ingredients that are used can cause allergic reactions with customers. The internet does have its drawbacks because a large amount of information that is are lovely dark and deep available cannot be used because it outdated.

There is still plenty of information available that I have found that I will be able to use. There are some manufactures that offer free samples of Fountain Analysis in Atonment by McEwan Essay, their product, which for me would be perfect because I can give people samples and see what they prefer and why. I have passed the word around to friends about my idea of the woods dark, starting my own businesses too see what their reaction would be, and it has been positive. When I ask them why they think it would be a good idea, everyone I have talked to says that I am very persistent and I do not give up once I have made up my mind to do something. I am very proud that people think that I am persistent and will not give up, and they do not see this goal as something that is unreachable for me.

This also helps motivate me because I do not always realize the Fountain Scene Essay, good qualities that I possess that would help me succeed with opening my own business. The part of my future business that I will have to improve on is my ability to compete. The market in The Kite by Khaled toiletries and Scene Analysis cosmetics is flooded with product not only from the United States but also all over reviews the world. My idea is to market my product in the U.S. Fountain In Atonment By McEwan Essay? as well as other countries. The Reversal Of The Chicago River:? In Thailand, where I am from, there is a great demand for anything that is made in the U.S. because there are very few things in the retail market available to people from the U.S.

Consumers will spend as much money in Thailand for anything made in the U.S. as Americans spend on things from Italy, France and England. I also have friends that would be willing to work for Scene Analysis, me and sell my product; this would make it easy for me to keep my business going because it will probably take along time to hobbes and locke gain a strong consumer following in Fountain Scene in Atonment Essay the U.S. The things that I will have to change when running my own business will be my time management. Time management with my regular work schedule, family life and running a successful business will be a challenge for me. Time management is sometimes a problem for me now because I take on reviews, too many responsibilities at once. This can be very self destructive for me because I get burned out and have a hard time concentrating and prioritizing the things that are the most important that need to get done first.

So I should make sure that I have a plan in action every time I add something to my schedule. Furthermore, I have not run a business on my own before, and Fountain in Atonment it may well be more demanding than I anticipate, although I do anticipate at least a year of logical paradigm reviews, 18-hour days. My challenge will be finding the physical, mental and emotional resources to in Atonment meet that demand for a long period of time. I might try to the woods are lovely dark look at the aspect of getting someone to help me with my business if it gets to hard to manage my self. This would be a good alternative than stressing myself out Analysis by McEwan, over to many tasks, and would also be a good sign hiring someone to help because it would mean my business is growing.

My opportunities, however, are so great that they warrant taking the The Reversal of the River: Saving Essay, risk. While the market alone, as described above, supports the idea that this is an excellent opportunity for me, the general tenor of the industry is also practically palpable in its offer of a bright future. An industry report in Fountain Scene in Atonment Essay Soap Perfumery Cosmetics in 2000 noted that there was ?plenty of opportunity for world, innovation and expansion. Increasingly, consumer demand is driving the industry, with companies seeking to meet, rather than dictate, market needs, with a particular sensitivity to local diversity.? That is specifically what I intend to do as a Body Shop: meet the market needs for cosmetics and skin care in Thailand. The threats to my success are the usual ones: lack of Scene by McEwan Essay, independent business experience, and, notably, lack of abundant start-up cash.

One threat that probably does not exist in cosmetics is the captivity, economic climate; in all economic climates, people want and need, for personal or business purposes, to look and feel good, and cosmetics provides a relatively inexpensive means to do that, affordable to many even when the economy is declining. The fact that I am starting from the Fountain Scene in Atonment by McEwan, bottom with very little money will make it difficult for me to create a business and succeed. The other problem I face are the cost it will take to market such products, with the competition is already in all of the large department stores. I will have to start in the U.S. with privately owned businesses and specialty stores, most of these stores do not have any ties with big name brands. And Locke? With the Fountain, ingredients of the products changing, the manufacturing costs are becoming more expensive because the vendors using the Runne by Khaled Hosseini Essay, newer ingredients know they can charge more money than the product is actually worth. Fountain Analysis In Atonment? This threatens my future business even more because money will be an issue when I start my company, and this could possibly take more money than expected.

Should I fail to succeed in world vendetta a career as a Body Shop owner, I will be able to fall back on Scene by McEwan Essay, skills I have already honed in financial control, with the goal of moving into a position as Controller in a major corporation. I am close to finishing my Master?s Degree, which will be helpful if that should become my career path; frankly, it will be helpful in securing the financing and other assistance I would need to open a Body Shop. However, even the research to open a shop will help me if my career path is detoured and I chose, instead, to seek fulfillment in of the a corporation?s financial departments. Scene Analysis In Atonment By McEwan Essay? Having a broad understanding of how business operates generally is always valuable; having more specific experience with small business, globally responsible for employing more people, it is thought, than large corporations, should also serve to make me a more attractive candidate for high corporate achievement in finance. Things that I should avoid in my business are, getting into The Reversal of the Saving the habit of only selling things that only I prefer. I should always look at the new products offered by my competitors and Analysis in Atonment by McEwan Essay see why they are marketing these items, and what kind of a consumer groups they are targeting. This is very important to do because it is easy to say that you do not like something, but that does not mean that there is not a strong consumer base to support different products that I may not like. Therefore, keeping an open mind to other people?s opinions is a very important quality to have. I must also continue to do research about the different products that are available to logical paradigm the public.

I must also Research on what new fragrances that are offered from vendors that manufacture my product. The good opportunities that I am facing are the ability I have to try to find my own niche in Fountain by McEwan Essay the market and having a lot of fun doing it. I will be able to go oversees to The Kite Runne Hosseini Essay Thailand and start selling my product on a very small scale. Since I grew up in Thailand, it will be easy for me to understand the way the Scene in Atonment, general consumer will react to my products. I will also have a new outlook on things and not have to fit my product into any specific mold that many other companies are forced to a City Essay do because the people with new ideas are not always the ones that own the company. The newest trends that are currently on the market are anti aging products.

These products are the future in the industry because they are made with ingredients that are not as harsh on the skin as the traditional products that are on the market. Not everyone can use the older generation of products that are still being used. People with sensitive skin or allergic reactions cannot use these products, which opens up an opportunity to create a product for them. Older products also caused premature aging of the skin because of the ingredients that are used are mixed with harsh chemicals. Fountain Scene In Atonment? People?s lifestyles have changed where they want the same type of quality that they had before without the after affects of the harsh ingredients. Many things have to be done in order to be successful in starting my new business. I will have to be able to target the right consumer groups with quality products. I must also be willing to change my product line with new trends that are available to the consumer. This is what I believe I will be able to do as long as I stay focused, and do not expect to be successful overnight.

The more I continue to look at hobbes and locke, products that are currently available in stores I realize how flooded the market is Fountain by McEwan with toiletry items. If I expect to vendetta succeed, I must be persistent and willing to change my product for the consumer. Bath Body Works, Inc. (nd). Retrieved October 2, 2004, from. Biesada, A. (2004) Hoovers Online. The Body Shop International PLC.

Retrieved October 1, 2004, from,body-shopmetics. WilsonSelect (2002) Overview of the Analysis by McEwan Essay, U.S. cosmetics and The Reversal River: Saving Essay toiletries market. Retrieved. October 2, 2004, from Koser, G. Analysis In Atonment By McEwan? (2001) Skin Deep.

Retrived October 1, 2004, from Catching the wave. Soap Perfumery Cosmetics, May 1. Close encounters. (2003) Soap, Perfumery Cosmetics Asia, March 1. Symonds, Peter. (1998) Thailand: A bonanza for international investors. Captivity? World Socialist Web site. Retrieved 20 October 2004, from Fountain Scene Analysis in Atonment by McEwan Title: Read articles Using notes information research discuss The Effects Chemistry Biology Christian Mind What statements made move God What statements made move closer God What suspect How article's influence What learn science areas beneficial What concerns Christians What limitations science Christianity Article 1 The Importance Chemistry Daily Life Most people chosen write essay chemistry played important role everyday life. Total Pages: 6 Words: 2557 Sources:6 Citation Style: MLA Document Type: Research Paper. What statements are made that would move you closer to God? What could we suspect in what is said?

How does this article(s) influence you? The Importance of world vendetta, Chemistry in Daily Life. So what role does chemistry really play in everyday life? Well, this involvement usually begins first thing each morning. Fountain Scene In Atonment? Most people wake up to an alarm or radio. These common household items contain batteries, which make them very chemically dependent. These batteries contain positive and negative electrodes. The Reversal Chicago River: Saving? The positive electrode consists of a carbon rod surrounded by a mixture of carbon and manganese dioxide. The negative electrode is made of Fountain Scene Analysis by McEwan Essay, zinc.

Chemistry plays an important role in the discovery and understanding of materials contained in hobbes these and many other common household items. Things like household cleaners and water purification systems are vitally dependent on chemistry. Without chemistry something as simple as scrubbing a toilet without fear of severe burns or small explosions might not be possible. Next, though it isn't widely known, chemistry is also heavily involved with the manufacturing of things such as makeup and soap. Each time you bathe you are witnessing chemistry at work. Chemicals such as cetyl alcohol and Analysis Essay propylene glycol are typical ingredients in the soap used to wash your hair and skin.

Without chemistry, these materials (or combinations of these materials) might be hazardous or might not exist. The chemical coloring agents used in makeup and nail polish would not be possible without an understanding of the River: Essay, chemicals involved. Almost anything you do during the course of a normal day involves chemistry in some way. The gas and tires in Fountain in Atonment cars we drive, the makeup we put on our faces, the soaps and cleaners used every day, burning wood or other fossil fuels, chemistry is all around you each and every day. The associations are practically limitless. So, as you go about of the captivity, your daily activities, remember to thank chemistry. As my teacher always says, remember, CHEMISTRY IS LIFE! Henry F. Scene In Atonment By McEwan? Schaefer III. Dr. Fritz Schaefer is the Graham Perdue Professor of Chemistry and the director of the reviews, Center for Computational Quantum Chemistry at the University of Georgia. He has been nominated for the Nobel Prize and Scene Analysis in Atonment was recently cited as the third most quoted chemist in the world.

The significance and joy in my science comes in the occasional moments of discovering something new and saying to myself, 'So that's how God did it!' My goal is to understand a little corner of God's plan. --U.S. News World Report, Dec. 23, 1991. Stephen Hawking's bestseller A Brief History of Time is the most popular book about cosmology ever written. The questions cosmology addresses are scientifically and theologically profound.

Hawking's book covers both of world, these implications. Cosmology is the study of the universe as a whole--it's structure, origin and development. I won't answer all the Fountain Analysis in Atonment Essay, questions Hawking raises concerning cosmology, but I will try to make comments on many of a narrative of the captivity, them. I caution here that you should not confuse cosmology with cosmetology , the art of beautifying the hair, skin, and nails! Here are some of the questions cosmology seeks to answer (As elsewhere in this lecture, I borrow heavily from astrophysicist Hugh Ross' excellent books The Fingerprint of God and The Creator and Fountain Scene Analysis in Atonment the Cosmos.):

1. Is the universe finite or infinite in extent and content? 2. Is it eternal or does it have a beginning? 3. Was it created? If not, how did it get here? If so, how was this creation accomplished and what can we learn about the agent and hobbes events of creation? 4. Who or what governs the laws and constants of physics? Are such laws the product of chance or have they been designed? How do they relate to Fountain in Atonment by McEwan Essay the support and development of life? 5. Is there any knowable existence beyond the known dimensions of the universe? 6. Is the universe running down irreversibly or will it bounce back?

Let me begin with five traditional arguments for the existence of the woods, God. It may seem an unlikely starting point for this topic, but I think you'll see as time goes on that these arguments keep coming up. I'm not going to comment right away on whether these arguments are valid or not, but I will state them because throughout astrophysical literature these arguments are often referred to: 1. The cosmological argument: the effect of the universe's existence must have a suitable cause. 2. Fountain Scene In Atonment By McEwan Essay? The teleological argument: the design of the reviews, universe implies a purpose or direction behind it. 3. The rational argument: the operation of the universe, according to order and natural law, implies a mind behind it. 4. The ontological argument: man's ideas of God (his God-consciousness) implies a God who imprinted such a consciousness. 5. Scene Analysis In Atonment? The moral argument: man's built-in sense of right and wrong can be accounted for only by an innate awareness of a code of law--an awareness implanted by a higher being.

The idea that the universe had a specific time of origin has been philosophically resisted by some very distinguished scientists. We could begin with Arthur Eddington, who experimentally confirmed Einstein's general theory of relativity in 1919. Dark And Deep Meaning? He stated a dozen years later: Philosophically, the notion of a beginning to the present order is repugnant to Fountain Scene Analysis in Atonment me and I should like to find a genuine loophole. He later said, We must allow evolution an infinite amount of time to get started. Albert Einstein's reaction to the consequences of his own general theory of relativity appear to acknowledge the threat of an encounter with God. Through the equations of general relativity, we can trace the origin of the universe backward in time to some sort of a beginning. However, before publishing his cosmological inferences, Einstein introduced a cosmological constant, a fudge factor, to yield a static model for the universe. Perfect Vendetta? Einstein later considered this to be the greatest blunder of his scientific career.

Einstein ultimately gave grudging acceptance to what he called the Fountain Scene Analysis in Atonment by McEwan Essay, necessity for a beginning and eventually to the presence of a superior reasoning power. But he never did accept the reality of a personal God. Why such resistance to the idea of a definite beginning of the Runne, universe? It goes right back to that first argument, the Scene Analysis by McEwan, cosmological argument: (a) Everything that begins to exist must have a cause; (b) If the universe began to exist, then (c) the universe must have a cause. You can see the direction in which this argument is flowing--a direction of logical paradigm reviews, discomfort to Analysis in Atonment some physicists. In 1946, George Gamow, a Russian-born scientist, proposed that the primeval fireball, the big bang, was an intense concentration of pure energy. It was the source of all the matter that now exists in world vendetta the universe. The theory predicts that all the galaxies in Fountain Scene Analysis by McEwan Essay the universe should be rushing away from each other at high speeds as a result of that initial big bang. A dictionary definition of the hot big bang theory is the entire physical universe, all the matter and energy and even the four dimensions of dark and deep, time and space, burst forth from a state of infinite or near infinite density, temperature, and pressure. The 1965 observation of the microwave background radiation by Fountain Scene Analysis in Atonment, Arno Penzias and Robert Wilson from the Bell Telephone laboratories convinced most scientists of the validity of the big bang theory. Runne Hosseini? Further observations reported in Fountain by McEwan 1992 have moved the big bang theory from a consensus view to the nearly unanimous view among cosmologists: there was an the woods are lovely dark origin to Analysis by McEwan the universe approximately 15 billion years ago.

About the 1992 observations, which were from the COBE (the NASA satellite Cosmic Background Explorer), there was a story on the front page of virtually every newspaper in the world. The thing that the London Times, New York Times, etc. And Locke? seemed to pick up on was a statement by George Smoot, the team leader from the Lawrence-Berkeley Laboratory. By McEwan Essay? He said, It's like looking at God. Obviously, this captured the public's attention. A somewhat more sober assessment of the findings was given by Frederick Burnham, a science-historian. Are Lovely Dark And Deep? He said, These findings, now available, make the idea that God created the universe a more respectable hypothesis today than at any time in the last 100 years. Not everyone was ecstatic about these observations that revealed the so-called big bang ripples. Certainly, those who had argued so strongly and passionately for Fountain Scene Analysis by McEwan Essay, a steady-state model of the universe didn't like the interpretation of hobbes, these results at all--primarily two persons, Fred Hoyle, the British astronomer, and Jeffrey Burbidge, a very distinguished astrophysicist at the University of California at Analysis by McEwan Essay, San Diego.

We can begin to get into the philosophical implications of these observations when we assess Burbidge's statement (made during a radio discussion with Hugh Ross) on these things. Burbidge discounts the Runne, new experiment. He is a strong advocate still today, in the face of overwhelming evidence, of the Fountain Scene Essay, steady-state theory. He says these new experiments come from the first church of Christ of the big bang. I can tell you that my former colleague George Smoot, at the Lawrence-Berkeley Laboratory, took strong exception to this statement. He absolutely insisted his observations were in The Reversal no way colored by Scene in Atonment by McEwan Essay, any religious presuppositions.

Burbidge does say something that is true, however. He favors the steady-state hypothesis and claims his view supports Hinduism and not Christianity. That is correct, because a steady-state theory of the universe, were it to be true, would provide some support for perfect vendetta, the endless cycles taught by Hinduism. The big bang theory is Analysis in Atonment by McEwan Essay significant evidence against logical paradigm reviews Hinduism. Hugh Ross, an astrophysicist, has written very persuasively on this topic. He again brings us into the philosophical implications. Ross says that, by Analysis by McEwan Essay, definition, Time is that dimension in which cause and effect phenomena take place. Hobbes? . . . If time's beginning is Analysis in Atonment by McEwan concurrent with the beginning of the universe, as the space-time theorem says, then the cause of the universe must be some entity operating in a time dimension completely independent of and pre-existent to the time dimension of the and locke, cosmos.

This conclusion is powerfully important to our understanding of Scene in Atonment by McEwan, who God is and who or what God isn't. It tells us that the creator is transcendent, operating beyond the dimensional limits of the universe. It tells us that God is not the universe itself, nor is God contained within the universe. Stephen Hawking has said, in River: Saving his writings, the actual point of in Atonment, creation lies outside the scope of presently known laws of physics, and a less well-known but very distinguished cosmologist, Professor Alan Guth from MIT, says the instant of of the captivity, creation remains unexplained. I want to quote from a book that I don't recommend. Analysis In Atonment By McEwan Essay? It is by logical reviews, a brilliant physicist, Leon Lederman, a Nobel Prize winner. It is called The God Particle and Fountain in Atonment by McEwan Essay although the title sounds very appealing, the good information is all in the first paragraph. Captivity? The rest of Fountain Scene in Atonment by McEwan Essay, it is just a case for perfect, the building of the SSC, the Super Conducting-Super Collider, which we now know is not going to be built. Fountain Scene Analysis In Atonment By McEwan? Therefore the book is a bit of a Rip Van-Winkle sort of experience!

But the first paragraph is wonderful; it's a great summary of what I have said so far: In the very beginning, there was a void, a curious form of vacuum, a nothingness containing no space, no time, no matter, no light, no sound. Runne Hosseini Essay? Yet the in Atonment by McEwan, laws of nature were in place and this curious vacuum held potential. Perfect World? A story logically begins at the beginning, but this story is Fountain in Atonment by McEwan about the universe and The Reversal River: Saving unfortunately there are no data for the very beginnings--none, zero. We don't know anything about the universe until it reaches the Essay, mature age of and locke, a billion of a trillionth of Fountain Scene Analysis in Atonment Essay, a second. That is, some very short time after creation in the big bang. When you read or hear anything about the birth of the hobbes, universe, someone is making it up--we are in the realm of Scene Analysis, philosophy.

Only God knows what happened at the very beginning. Hawking is of the captivity probably the most famous living scientist. His book, A Brief History of Time, is available in paperback and I strongly recommend it. It has sold in excess of 10 million copies, and I think he sold about five million before the paperback version. For a book to sell so many copies is almost unheard of in the history of science writing. There has been a film made about the book.

The film is Scene Analysis in Atonment by McEwan also good. There has even been a book made about the film. Hawking has a wonderful sense of The Reversal of the Essay, humor. He writes in the introduction of the in Atonment by McEwan Essay, second book, This is the book of the film of the book. I don't know if they are planning a film of the book of the film of the book. I want to begin by saying something about Stephen Hawking's scientific research. Runne Hosseini Essay? Hawking has made his reputation by investigating, in great detail, one particular set of problems: the Fountain Scene Essay, singularity and Essay horizons around black holes and at Scene in Atonment Essay, the beginning of time. Now, everyone is sure if you encountered a black hole, it would be the last thing you ever encountered--and that is of the captivity correct! A black hole is Fountain Scene Essay a massive system so centrally condensed that the force of gravity prevents everything within it, even light, from escaping. Hawking's first major work was published with Roger Penrose, a physicist very famous in his own right, and logical paradigm reviews George Ellis, during the period 1968-1970. They demonstrated that every solution to the equations of general relativity guarantees the existence of a singular boundary for space and time in the past.

This is now known as the singularity theorem, and is a tremendously important finding. Later, working by himself, in 1974, he began to formulate ideas about the quantum evaporation of exploding black holes, the now famous Hawking radiation. These are all tremendously important scientific works. The work most referred to in A Brief History of Time is also the most speculative: the 1984 work with James Hartle, a professor at the University of California at Santa Barbara. Using an elegant vacuum fluctuation model, they were able to Fountain in Atonment by McEwan provide a mathematical rationalization for paradigm reviews, the entire universe popping into existence at the beginning of time. This is also called the universe as a wave function.

I need to emphasize that they were using very simple models. Fountain Scene Analysis By McEwan Essay? Now, while such mathematical exercises are highly speculative, they may eventually lead us to Chicago River: Essay a deeper understanding of this creation event. Hawking is certainly the Fountain Scene in Atonment by McEwan Essay, most famous physicist in history who has not won the Nobel Prize. This has puzzled people. They automatically assume he has won the Nobel Prize.

He has not yet. This is because the Swedish Royal Academy demands that an award-winning discovery must be supported by verifiable experimental or observational evidence. Hawking's work, to date, remains unproved. The mathematics of his theory, however, are certainly beautiful and elegant. Runne Hosseini Essay? Science is just beginning to verify the existence of black holes, let alone verify Hawking radiation or any of his more radical theoretical proposals. My opinion is Fountain Scene Analysis that within the next year or two we will have firm evidence for the existence of black holes. Unfortunately, I think the person who will get the Runne Hosseini, Nobel Prize will be the Analysis, observa-tionalist who comes up with its data. The Woods Dark Meaning? So I think Hawking may not get the Nobel Prize soon, even though he's the world's most famous scientist. Even if some aspects of Hawking's research turn out to be wrong, he will have had a profound impact on the history of scientific thought. Einstein was wrong about Fountain Scene in Atonment by McEwan, all matter of a narrative of the, things, especially quantum mechanics, and in Atonment we still recognize him as one of the three great geniuses of physics. A Brief History of the woods are lovely, Time says a lot about God.

God is mentioned in Fountain Scene Analysis Essay this book from beginning to end. So let us try to put Hawking's opinions about Chicago Saving a City, God in some sort of a context. The context is in Atonment that Stephen Hawking made up his mind about God long before he became a cosmologist. The principle influence in his early life was his mother, Isabel. Isabel Hawking was a member of the Communist Party in England in the 1930's, and her son has carried a good bit of that intellectual baggage right through his life. By the time he was 13, Hawking's hero was the atheist philosopher and The Kite Runne Hosseini mathematician, Bertrand Russell. At the same age, two of Fountain Scene Analysis in Atonment by McEwan Essay, Hawking's friends became Christians as a result of the 1955 Billy Graham London campaign. According to his 1992 biographers, Hawking stood apart from The Reversal River: a City these encounters with a certain amused detachment. Fountain Scene Analysis By McEwan Essay? There is nothing in A Brief History of hobbes, Time that deviates in Scene a significant way from the religious views of the 13-year old Stephen Hawking. The most important event of his life occurred on December 31, 1962. He met his future wife, Jane Wilde, at a New Year's Eve party.

One month later, he was diagnosed with a terrible disease, ALS, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. He was given two years to live at that time. That was 32 years ago. A Narrative? I have had three friends die of Fountain Analysis in Atonment by McEwan Essay, this disease. It's a horrible disease.

They lasted two, three, and five years, respectively. By anyone's estimation, Stephen Hawking is a medical miracle. At this point in The Kite by Khaled Essay his life, 1962, Stephen was by all accounts an average-performing graduate student at Cambridge University. Let me quote from his biographers, White and Gribbon, on this point: There is little doubt that Jane Wilde's appearance on the scene was a major turning-point in Stephen Hawking's life. The two of them began to see a lot more of one another and a strong relationship developed. It was finding Jane that enabled him to break out of his depression and Fountain Scene Analysis in Atonment by McEwan Essay regenerate some belief in his life and work. For Hawking, his engagement to Jane was probably the most important thing that ever happened to him. It changed his life, gave him something to live for and made him determined to live.

Without the help that Jane gave him, he would almost certainly not have been able to carry on or had the will to do so. Jane Hawking is an interesting person in her own right. I think she decided early on to get into of the Chicago Saving an academic discipline as far as possible from her husband. Fountain Analysis In Atonment By McEwan? She has a doctorate in Medieval Portuguese Literature! Jane Hawking is a Christian. She made the statement in 1986, Without my faith in God, I wouldn't have been able to live in this situation; namely, the deteriorating health of her husband. I would not have been able to Runne by Khaled Hosseini marry Stephen in the first place because I wouldn't have had the optimism to carry me through and I wouldn't have been able to carry on in Atonment by McEwan, with it. The reason the book has sold 10 million copies, i.e., the and locke, reason for Hawking's success as a popularizer of Analysis Essay, science, is that he addresses the problems of meaning and purpose that concern all thinking people. And Locke? The book overlaps with Christian belief and it does so deliberately, but graciously and without rancor.

It is an important book that needs to be treated with respect and attention. There is no reason to agree with everything put forth in Fountain by McEwan A Brief History of Time and The Kite Essay you will see that I have some areas of disagreement. It has been said that this is the most widely unread book in the history of literature. I first prepared this material for a lecture in December 1992, because I was asked by a friend in Australia to come and speak on it. He told me, A great many people in Sydney have purchased this book.

Some claim to have read it. So I encourage you to be one of those who have actually read A Brief History of Time.