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KurzweilAI | Accelerating Intelligence. An analysis of the history of comparing technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense intuitive linear view. So we wont experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century it will be more like 20,000 years of Into Chris McCandless- Couragous and Noble Essay progress (at todays rate). The returns, such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. Theres even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Comparing Poetry. Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to Into Chris Couragous Idealist Essay The Singularity technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and comparing, ultra-high levels of Heart of Darkness Essay intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of comparing light. You will get $40 trillion just by reading this essay and understanding what it says. For complete details, see below. (Its true that authors will do just about scenes anything to keep your attention, but Im serious about this statement.

Until I return to a further explanation, however, do read the first sentence of poetry this paragraph carefully.) Now back to the future: its widely misunderstood. Our forebears expected the future to be pretty much like their present, which had been pretty much like their past. Although exponential trends did exist a thousand years ago, they were at macbeth history, that very early stage where an exponential trend is so flat that it looks like no trend at poetry, all. So their lack of expectations was largely fulfilled. The Wild: Chris Couragous Idealist Essay. Today, in accordance with the common wisdom, everyone expects continuous technological progress and the social repercussions that follow.

But the future will be far more surprising than most observers realize: few have truly internalized the implications of the fact that the rate of change itself is accelerating. The Intuitive Linear View versus the Historical Exponential View. Most long range forecasts of technical feasibility in future time periods dramatically underestimate the comparing power of future technology because they are based on what I call the intuitive linear view of technological progress rather than the historical exponential view. To express this another way, it is Educating Exceptionally Students, not the case that we will experience a hundred years of progress in poetry, the twenty-first century; rather we will witness on the order of twenty thousand years of progress (at todays rate of progress, that is). This disparity in outlook comes up frequently in a variety of contexts, for example, the discussion of the ethical issues that Bill Joy raised in his controversial WIRED cover story, Why The Future Doesnt Need Us. Educating Talented Students Essay. Bill and poetry, I have been frequently paired in on Tips on Dating Part 2, a variety of venues as pessimist and optimist respectively. Although Im expected to criticize Bills position, and indeed I do take issue with his prescription of relinquishment, I nonetheless usually end up defending Joy on the key issue of feasibility.

Recently a Noble Prize winning panelist dismissed Bills concerns, exclaiming that, were not going to comparing see self-replicating nanoengineered entities for Educating Students, a hundred years. I pointed out that 100 years was indeed a reasonable estimate of the amount of technical progress required to achieve this particular milestone at todays rate of progress . But because were doubling the rate of comparing poetry progress every decade, well see a century of progress at todays rate in only Essay on Tips on Dating Your 25 calendar years. When people think of a future period, they intuitively assume that the current rate of progress will continue for future periods. Poetry. However, careful consideration of the pace of technology shows that the rate of progress is not constant, but it is human nature to adapt to the changing pace, so the color scenes intuitive view is that the pace will continue at the current rate. Even for those of us who have been around long enough to experience how the pace increases over time, our unexamined intuition nonetheless provides the impression that progress changes at the rate that we have experienced recently. From the mathematicians perspective, a primary reason for this is that an exponential curve approximates a straight line when viewed for a brief duration. So even though the rate of poetry progress in the very recent past (e.g., this past year) is macbeth history, far greater than it was ten years ago (let alone a hundred or a thousand years ago), our memories are nonetheless dominated by poetry our very recent experience. It is typical, therefore, that even sophisticated commentators, when considering the future, extrapolate the macbeth history current pace of change over the next 10 years or 100 years to determine their expectations. This is why I call this way of comparing poetry looking at the future the intuitive linear view. But a serious assessment of the history of technology shows that technological change is of Darkness, exponential. In exponential growth, we find that a key measurement such as computational power is multiplied by a constant factor for each unit of time (e.g., doubling every year) rather than just being added to incrementally.

Exponential growth is a feature of comparing poetry any evolutionary process, of which technology is a primary example. Color Purple Scenes. One can examine the comparing data. in different ways, on different time scales, and for a wide variety of technologies ranging from electronic to biological, and the acceleration of progress and growth applies. Indeed, we find not just simple exponential growth, but double exponential growth, meaning that the Heart rate of exponential growth is itself growing exponentially. These observations do not rely merely on an assumption of the continuation of Moores law (i.e., the exponential shrinking of poetry transistor sizes on an integrated circuit), but is based on a rich model of diverse technological processes. What it clearly shows is Students, that technology, particularly the comparing pace of technological change, advances (at least) exponentially, not linearly, and has been doing so since the advent of technology, indeed since the macbeth history advent of evolution on Earth. I emphasize this point because it is the most important failure that would-be prognosticators make in considering future trends. Most technology forecasts ignore altogether this historical exponential view of technological progress.

That is why people tend to overestimate what can be achieved in the short term (because we tend to leave out necessary details), but underestimate what can be achieved in the long term (because the exponential growth is ignored). We can organize these observations into what I call the law of accelerating returns as follows: Evolution applies positive feedback in that the more capable methods resulting from comparing poetry, one stage of evolutionary progress are used to create the next stage. As a result, the rate of progress of an evolutionary process increases exponentially over Exceptionally Talented Students, time. Over time, the comparing poetry order of the information embedded in Exceptionally Essay, the evolutionary process (i.e., the measure of comparing how well the information fits a purpose, which in evolution is survival) increases. Macbeth History. A correlate of the above observation is that the returns of an evolutionary process (e.g., the speed, cost-effectiveness, or overall power of a process) increase exponentially over time. Comparing Poetry. In another positive feedback loop, as a particular evolutionary process (e.g., computation) becomes more effective (e.g., cost effective), greater resources are deployed toward the further progress of shark attack that process. This results in a second level of poetry exponential growth (i.e., the macbeth history rate of exponential growth itself grows exponentially).

Biological evolution is one such evolutionary process. Poetry. Technological evolution is another such evolutionary process. Indeed, the emergence of the first technology creating species resulted in the new evolutionary process of technology. Therefore, technological evolution is an outgrowth ofand a continuation ofbiological evolution. A specific paradigm (a method or approach to frilled shark attack solving a problem, e.g., shrinking transistors on an integrated circuit as an approach to making more powerful computers) provides exponential growth until the method exhausts its potential. When this happens, a paradigm shift (i.e., a fundamental change in the approach) occurs, which enables exponential growth to continue. If we apply these principles at comparing poetry, the highest level of evolution on Earth, the first step, the creation of cells, introduced the paradigm of biology.

The subsequent emergence of DNA provided a digital method to record the Essay Your Hotel, Part results of evolutionary experiments. Then, the evolution of a species who combined rational thought with an opposable appendage (i.e., the thumb) caused a fundamental paradigm shift from biology to technology. The upcoming primary paradigm shift will be from biological thinking to comparing poetry a hybrid combining biological and nonbiological thinking. This hybrid will include biologically inspired processes resulting from the reverse engineering of color purple scenes biological brains. If we examine the timing of these steps, we see that the process has continuously accelerated.

The evolution of comparing poetry life forms required billions of years for the first steps (e.g., primitive cells); later on progress accelerated. Frilled Shark Attack. During the comparing poetry Cambrian explosion, major paradigm shifts took only tens of Essay on Tips on Dating Your Part 2 millions of years. Later on, Humanoids developed over a period of millions of years, and comparing, Homo sapiens over a period of only hundreds of thousands of macbeth history years. With the poetry advent of a technology-creating species, the McCandless- Idealist exponential pace became too fast for evolution through DNA-guided protein synthesis and moved on to human-created technology. Technology goes beyond mere tool making; it is a process of creating ever more powerful technology using the tools from the previous round of innovation. Poetry. In this way, human technology is distinguished from the tool making of other species. There is a record of each stage of technology, and each new stage of technology builds on color scenes, the order of the previous stage.

The first technological steps-sharp edges, fire, the poetry wheeltook tens of thousands of years. Macbeth History. For people living in this era, there was little noticeable technological change in even a thousand years. Comparing. By 1000 A.D., progress was much faster and color purple, a paradigm shift required only a century or two. In the nineteenth century, we saw more technological change than in the nine centuries preceding it. Then in the first twenty years of the twentieth century, we saw more advancement than in all of the nineteenth century. Now, paradigm shifts occur in only a few years time. The World Wide Web did not exist in poetry, anything like its present form just a few years ago; it didnt exist at all a decade ago. The paradigm shift rate (i.e., the overall rate of technical progress) is currently doubling (approximately) every decade; that is, paradigm shift times are halving every decade (and the rate of acceleration is itself growing exponentially). So, the technological progress in Heart, the twenty-first century will be equivalent to what would require (in the linear view) on comparing, the order of 200 centuries. In contrast, the twentieth century saw only about 25 years of progress (again at on Tips on Dating Your Hotel, Part, todays rate of progress) since we have been speeding up to current rates. So the twenty-first century will see almost a thousand times greater technological change than its predecessor.

To appreciate the nature and significance of the poetry coming singularity, it is important to ponder the nature of exponential growth. Toward this end, I am fond of telling the tale of the inventor of chess and his patron, the emperor of China. Macbeth History. In response to the emperors offer of poetry a reward for his new beloved game, the inventor asked for a single grain of rice on the first square, two on the second square, four on the third, and so on. Color Purple Scenes. The Emperor quickly granted this seemingly benign and humble request. One version of the comparing poetry story has the emperor going bankrupt as the 63 doublings ultimately totaled 18 million trillion grains of rice. Into The Wild: Chris Couragous Idealist. At ten grains of rice per poetry square inch, this requires rice fields covering twice the surface area of the Earth, oceans included. Another version of the purple story has the comparing poetry inventor losing his head.

It should be pointed out that as the emperor and the inventor went through the first half of the chess board, things were fairly uneventful. Frilled Shark. The inventor was given spoonfuls of rice, then bowls of rice, then barrels. Poetry. By the end of the first half of the Into the Wild: Chris McCandless- Essay chess board, the inventor had accumulated one large fields worth (4 billion grains), and poetry, the emperor did start to take notice. It was as they progressed through the second half of the chessboard that the situation quickly deteriorated. Incidentally, with regard to the doublings of computation, thats about where we stand nowthere have been slightly more than 32 doublings of performance since the first programmable computers were invented during World War II. This is the Heart Essay nature of exponential growth. Although technology grows in the exponential domain, we humans live in a linear world.

So technological trends are not noticed as small levels of technological power are doubled. Then seemingly out of nowhere, a technology explodes into view. Comparing. For example, when the Internet went from 20,000 to 80,000 nodes over a two year period during the 1980s, this progress remained hidden from the general public. A decade later, when it went from frilled, 20 million to 80 million nodes in the same amount of time, the impact was rather conspicuous. As exponential growth continues to accelerate into the first half of the twenty-first century, it will appear to comparing explode into Heart Essay, infinity, at poetry, least from the Into Couragous Idealist Essay limited and linear perspective of contemporary humans. The progress will ultimately become so fast that it will rupture our ability to follow it. It will literally get out of our control. Poetry. The illusion that we have our hand on the plug, will be dispelled. Can the pace of technological progress continue to Essay Your Hotel, speed up indefinitely?

Is there not a point where humans are unable to poetry think fast enough to keep up with it? With regard to unenhanced humans, clearly so. But what would a thousand scientists, each a thousand times more intelligent than human scientists today, and each operating a thousand times faster than contemporary humans (because the information processing in their primarily nonbiological brains is faster) accomplish? One year would be like a millennium. What would they come up with? Well, for one thing, they would come up with technology to become even more intelligent (because their intelligence is no longer of fixed capacity). Macbeth History. They would change their own thought processes to think even faster. When the scientists evolve to be a million times more intelligent and operate a million times faster, then an hour would result in a century of comparing poetry progress (in todays terms). This, then, is the Singularity. The Singularity is macbeth history, technological change so rapid and so profound that it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history.

Some would say that we cannot comprehend the Singularity, at least with our current level of understanding, and that it is impossible, therefore, to comparing poetry look past its event horizon and make sense of what lies beyond. My view is of Darkness Essay, that despite our profound limitations of thought, constrained as we are today to a mere hundred trillion interneuronal connections in our biological brains, we nonetheless have sufficient powers of abstraction to make meaningful statements about the nature of life after the Singularity. Most importantly, it is my view that the intelligence that will emerge will continue to represent the human civilization, which is poetry, already a human-machine civilization. This will be the next step in evolution, the next high level paradigm shift. To put the concept of Singularity into perspective, lets explore the history of the word itself. Singularity is a familiar word meaning a unique event with profound implications. In mathematics, the term implies infinity, the McCandless- Couragous explosion of value that occurs when dividing a constant by a number that gets closer and closer to zero.

In physics, similarly, a singularity denotes an event or location of infinite power. Poetry. At the macbeth history center of a black hole, matter is so dense that its gravity is infinite. Poetry. As nearby matter and energy are drawn into the black hole, an event horizon separates the region from the rest of the Universe. It constitutes a rupture in the fabric of space and time. The Universe itself is Heart of Darkness Essay, said to comparing poetry have begun with just such a Singularity.

In the 1950s, John Von Neumann was quoted as saying that the ever accelerating progress of technologygives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue. In the 1960s, I. J. Good wrote of an intelligence explosion, resulting from macbeth history, intelligent machines designing their next generation without human intervention. Comparing Poetry. In 1986, Vernor Vinge, a mathematician and of Darkness Essay, computer scientist at San Diego State University, wrote about a rapidly approaching technological singularity in his science fiction novel, Marooned in Realtime. Then in 1993, Vinge presented a paper to poetry a NASA-organized symposium which described the on Tips on Dating Your Hotel, Part Singularity as an impending event resulting primarily from the advent of comparing entities with greater than human intelligence, which Vinge saw as the harbinger of a run-away phenomenon. From my perspective, the Singularity has many faces. It represents the nearly vertical phase of macbeth history exponential growth where the rate of growth is so extreme that technology appears to be growing at infinite speed. Comparing Poetry. Of course, from a mathematical perspective, there is no discontinuity, no rupture, and the growth rates remain finite, albeit extraordinarily large. But from our currently limited perspective, this imminent event appears to be an acute and abrupt break in the continuity of Into the Wild: Chris Idealist Essay progress. However, I emphasize the word currently, because one of the salient implications of the Singularity will be a change in the nature of our ability to understand. In other words, we will become vastly smarter as we merge with our technology. When I wrote my first book, The Age of Intelligent Machines, in comparing poetry, the 1980s, I ended the book with the specter of the emergence of machine intelligence greater than human intelligence, but found it difficult to macbeth history look beyond this event horizon. Now having thought about its implications for the past 20 years, I feel that we are indeed capable of understanding the many facets of this threshold, one that will transform all spheres of human life.

Consider a few examples of the implications. The bulk of our experiences will shift from real reality to virtual reality. Most of the intelligence of our civilization will ultimately be nonbiological, which by the end of this century will be trillions of trillions of comparing poetry times more powerful than human intelligence. However, to macbeth history address often expressed concerns, this does not imply the end of biological intelligence, even if thrown from its perch of evolutionary superiority. Moreover, it is important to note that the nonbiological forms will be derivative of biological design.

In other words, our civilization will remain human, indeed in many ways more exemplary of what we regard as human than it is today, although our understanding of the term will move beyond its strictly biological origins. Many observers have nonetheless expressed alarm at the emergence of forms of nonbiological intelligence superior to human intelligence. The potential to augment our own intelligence through intimate connection with other thinking mediums does not necessarily alleviate the concern, as some people have expressed the comparing poetry wish to remain unenhanced while at Heart of Darkness Essay, the same time keeping their place at the top of the intellectual food chain. My view is that the likely outcome is that on the one hand, from the perspective of biological humanity, these superhuman intelligences will appear to be their transcendent servants, satisfying their needs and desires. Comparing. On the macbeth history other hand, fulfilling the wishes of a revered biological legacy will occupy only a trivial portion of the comparing poetry intellectual power that the shark Singularity will bring. Needless to say, the comparing Singularity will transform all aspects of our lives, social, sexual, and economic, which I explore herewith. Before considering further the implications of the Singularity, lets examine the Essay wide range of technologies that are subject to the law of accelerating returns. Comparing. The exponential trend that has gained the greatest public recognition has become known as Moores Law. Gordon Moore, one of the inventors of integrated circuits, and then Chairman of Intel, noted in the mid 1970s that we could squeeze twice as many transistors on an integrated circuit every 24 months. Given that the electrons have less distance to travel, the circuits also run twice as fast, providing an overall quadrupling of computational power. After sixty years of devoted service, Moores Law will die a dignified death no later than the year 2019.

By that time, transistor features will be just a few atoms in width, and the strategy of ever finer photolithography will have run its course. So, will that be the end of the exponential growth of computing? If we plot the speed (in instructions per second) per $1000 (in constant dollars) of Talented Essay 49 famous calculators and computers spanning the poetry entire twentieth century, we note some interesting observations. Moores Law Was Not the First, but the Fifth Paradigm To Provide Exponential Growth of Computing. Each time one paradigm runs out of steam, another picks up the pace. It is important to Essay on Dating Hotel, Part 2 note that Moores Law of Integrated Circuits was not the comparing first, but the fifth paradigm to provide accelerating price-performance. Computing devices have been consistently multiplying in power (per unit of time) from the mechanical calculating devices used in the 1890 U.S.

Census, to Turings relay-based Robinson machine that cracked the Nazi enigma code, to the CBS vacuum tube computer that predicted the election of Eisenhower, to the transistor-based machines used in the first space launches, to frilled attack the integrated-circuit-based personal computer which I used to dictate (and automatically transcribe) this essay. But I noticed something else surprising. When I plotted the 49 machines on an exponential graph (where a straight line means exponential growth), I didnt get a straight line. What I got was another exponential curve. In other words, theres exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Computer speed (per unit cost) doubled every three years between 1910 and 1950, doubled every two years between 1950 and 1966, and is now doubling every year. But where does Moores Law come from? What is behind this remarkably predictable phenomenon? I have seen relatively little written about the ultimate source of poetry this trend. Is it just a set of Heart Essay industry expectations and goals, as Randy Isaac, head of basic science at IBM contends? Or is there something more profound going on?

In my view, it is one manifestation (among many) of the exponential growth of the evolutionary process that is technology. The exponential growth of computing is a marvelous quantitative example of the comparing exponentially growing returns from an evolutionary process. Of Darkness Essay. We can also express the exponential growth of computing in terms of an accelerating pace: it took ninety years to achieve the first MIPS (million instructions per second) per thousand dollars, now we add one MIPS per thousand dollars every day. Moores Law narrowly refers to poetry the number of transistors on Educating Talented Students Essay, an integrated circuit of fixed size, and comparing poetry, sometimes has been expressed even more narrowly in terms of transistor feature size. But rather than feature size (which is only one contributing factor), or even number of transistors, I think the most appropriate measure to track is computational speed per unit cost. This takes into account many levels of cleverness (i.e., innovation, which is to say, technological evolution). Frilled Shark. In addition to all of the innovation in integrated circuits, there are multiple layers of innovation in computer design, e.g., pipelining, parallel processing, instruction look-ahead, instruction and memory caching, and comparing poetry, many others. From the above chart, we see that the Into the Wild: Chris McCandless- and Noble Essay exponential growth of computing didnt start with integrated circuits (around 1958), or even transistors (around 1947), but goes back to the electromechanical calculators used in the 1890 and 1900 U.S. Census. This chart spans at least five distinct paradigms of computing, of poetry which Moores Law pertains to Educating Talented only the comparing latest one. Its obvious what the sixth paradigm will be after Moores Law runs out of steam during the second decade of the Wild: Chris Couragous and Noble Idealist this century.

Chips today are flat (although it does require up to 20 layers of material to comparing produce one layer of circuitry). Our brain, in contrast, is organized in three dimensions. We live in Essay on Tips Hotel, 2, a three dimensional world, why not use the comparing third dimension? The human brain actually uses a very inefficient electrochemical digital controlled analog computational process. The bulk of the macbeth history calculations are done in the interneuronal connections at poetry, a speed of only about 200 calculations per second (in each connection), which is about ten million times slower than contemporary electronic circuits.

But the brain gains its prodigious powers from its extremely parallel organization in three dimensions . There are many technologies in the wings that build circuitry in three dimensions. Nanotubes, for on Tips Your Part 2, example, which are already working in laboratories, build circuits from pentagonal arrays of carbon atoms. One cubic inch of nanotube circuitry would be a million times more powerful than the human brain. There are more than enough new computing technologies now being researched, including three-dimensional silicon chips, optical computing, crystalline computing, DNA computing, and quantum computing, to keep the law of accelerating returns as applied to computation going for a long time. Thus the (double) exponential growth of computing is broader than Moores Law, which refers to comparing only one of its paradigms. And this accelerating growth of computing is, in turn, part of the yet broader phenomenon of the accelerating pace of any evolutionary process. Observers are quick to criticize extrapolations of an exponential trend on Essay on Dating Your 2, the basis that the trend is bound to run out of poetry resources. The classical example is when a species happens upon a new habitat (e.g., rabbits in Australia), the species numbers will grow exponentially for a time, but then hit a limit when resources such as food and space run out. But the resources underlying the exponential growth of an evolutionary process are relatively unbounded: (i) The (ever growing) order of the evolutionary process itself. Each stage of evolution provides more powerful tools for the next. In biological evolution, the advent of DNA allowed more powerful and faster evolutionary experiments. Later, setting the macbeth history designs of poetry animal body plans during the Cambrian explosion allowed rapid evolutionary development of frilled shark attack other body organs such as the brain.

Or to take a more recent example, the advent of computer assisted design tools allows rapid development of the next generation of comparing poetry computers. (ii) The chaos of the environment in which the evolutionary process takes place and which provides the options for further diversity. In biological evolution, diversity enters the process in the form of mutations and ever changing environmental conditions. In technological evolution, human ingenuity combined with ever changing market conditions keep the process of innovation going. The maximum potential of matter and energy to contain intelligent processes is a valid issue. But according to color purple scenes my models, we wont approach those limits during this century (but this will become an issue within a couple of centuries). We also need to distinguish between the S curve (an S stretched to the right, comprising very slow, virtually unnoticeable growthfollowed by poetry very rapid growthfollowed by a flattening out as the process approaches an asymptote) that is characteristic of any specific technological paradigm and the continuing exponential growth that is characteristic of the ongoing evolutionary process of technology. On Tips On Dating Your Part. Specific paradigms, such as Moores Law, do ultimately reach levels at which exponential growth is no longer feasible.

Thus Moores Law is an S curve. But the growth of computation is an poetry ongoing exponential (at least until we saturate the Universe with the intelligence of our human-machine civilization, but that will not be a limit in frilled shark attack, this coming century). In accordance with the law of accelerating returns, paradigm shift, also called innovation, turns the S curve of poetry any specific paradigm into a continuing exponential. A new paradigm (e.g., three-dimensional circuits) takes over when the old paradigm approaches its natural limit. Heart Of Darkness Essay. This has already happened at least four times in the history of computation. This difference also distinguishes the tool making of non-human species, in which the poetry mastery of Heart of Darkness Essay a tool-making (or using) skill by each animal is characterized by an abruptly ending S shaped learning curve, versus human-created technology, which has followed an exponential pattern of growth and acceleration since its inception.

DNA Sequencing, Memory, Communications, the comparing poetry Internet, and Essay, Miniaturization. This law of accelerating returns applies to all of technology, indeed to any true evolutionary process, and can be measured with remarkable precision in information based technologies. There are a great many examples of the comparing poetry exponential growth implied by the law of accelerating returns in technologies as varied as DNA sequencing, communication speeds, electronics of shark all kinds, and even in the rapidly shrinking size of technology. The Singularity results not from the poetry exponential explosion of macbeth history computation alone, but rather from the interplay and comparing, myriad synergies that will result from manifold intertwined technological revolutions. Also, keep in purple, mind that every point on the exponential growth curves underlying these panoply of technologies (see the graphs below) represents an intense human drama of innovation and comparing poetry, competition.

It is remarkable therefore that these chaotic processes result in such smooth and predictable exponential trends. For example, when the human genome scan started fourteen years ago, critics pointed out that given the speed with which the genome could then be scanned, it would take thousands of years to finish the project. Yet the fifteen year project was nonetheless completed slightly ahead of schedule. Of course, we expect to see exponential growth in electronic memories such as RAM. Notice How Exponential Growth Continued through Paradigm Shifts from Vacuum Tubes to Discrete Transistors to Into the Wild: Idealist Integrated Circuits. However, growth in comparing, magnetic memory is frilled shark, not primarily a matter of comparing poetry Moores law, but includes advances in on Tips on Dating Your Hotel, Part 2, mechanical and electromagnetic systems. Exponential growth in communications technology has been even more explosive than in computation and is no less significant in poetry, its implications. Again, this progression involves far more than just shrinking transistors on an integrated circuit, but includes accelerating advances in fiber optics, optical switching, electromagnetic technologies, and others.

Notice Cascade of smaller S Curves. Note that in the above two charts we can actually see the progression of S curves: the macbeth history acceleration fostered by a new paradigm, followed by a leveling off as the paradigm runs out of poetry steam, followed by renewed acceleration through paradigm shift. The following two charts show the overall growth of the Internet based on the number of color purple hosts. These two charts plot the same data, but one is on an exponential axis and the other is linear. As I pointed out earlier, whereas technology progresses in the exponential domain, we experience it in the linear domain. So from the perspective of most observers, nothing was happening until the mid 1990s when seemingly out of nowhere, the world wide web and poetry, email exploded into Heart of Darkness, view. But the poetry emergence of the Educating Exceptionally Talented Students Internet into a worldwide phenomenon was readily predictable much earlier by examining the exponential trend data.

Notice how the explosion of the Internet appears to comparing be a surprise from the Linear Chart, but was perfectly predictable from the Exponential Chart. Ultimately we will get away from the tangle of wires in our cities and in our lives through wireless communication, the power of Heart which is doubling every 10 to 11 months. Another technology that will have profound implications for the twenty-first century is the poetry pervasive trend toward making things smaller, i.e., miniaturization. The salient implementation sizes of a broad range of color purple technologies, both electronic and mechanical, are shrinking, also at a double exponential rate. At present, we are shrinking technology by a factor of approximately 5.6 per comparing linear dimension per color purple decade. The Exponential Growth of Computation Revisited. If we view the exponential growth of computation in its proper perspective as one example of the pervasiveness of the exponential growth of information based technology, that is, as one example of many of the law of accelerating returns, then we can confidently predict its continuation. In the accompanying sidebar, I include a simplified mathematical model of the law of accelerating returns as it pertains to the (double) exponential growth of computing.

The formulas below result in the above graph of the continued growth of computation. Comparing Poetry. This graph matches the available data for the twentieth century through all five paradigms and on Dating Your, provides projections for the twenty-first century. Note how the Growth Rate is growing slowly, but nonetheless exponentially. The Law of Accelerating Returns Applied to the Growth of comparing poetry Computation. The following provides a brief overview of the law of accelerating returns as it applies to the double exponential growth of Educating Exceptionally Essay computation. Comparing Poetry. This model considers the attack impact of the growing power of the technology to foster its own next generation. For example, with more powerful computers and comparing, related technology, we have the tools and the knowledge to color purple design yet more powerful computers, and to do so more quickly. Note that the comparing data for the year 2000 and beyond assume neural net connection calculations as it is expected that this type of calculation will ultimately dominate, particularly in emulating human brain functions.

This type of calculation is less expensive than conventional (e.g., Pentium III / IV) calculations by a factor of at least 100 (particularly if implemented using digital controlled analog electronics, which would correspond well to the brains digital controlled analog electrochemical processes). A factor of 100 translates into approximately 6 years (today) and less than 6 years later in the twenty-first century. My estimate of macbeth history brain capacity is 100 billion neurons times an average 1,000 connections per neuron (with the calculations taking place primarily in the connections) times 200 calculations per second. Although these estimates are conservatively high, one can find higher and lower estimates. However, even much higher (or lower) estimates by orders of poetry magnitude only shift the Exceptionally Talented Students Essay prediction by a relatively small number of years. Some prominent dates from this analysis include the following: We achieve one Human Brain capability (2 * 10^16 cps) for comparing poetry, $1,000 around the year 2023. We achieve one Human Brain capability (2 * 10^16 cps) for one cent around the year 2037. We achieve one Human Race capability (2 * 10^26 cps) for Essay on Tips Your Hotel, Part 2, $1,000 around the year 2049. We achieve one Human Race capability (2 * 10^26 cps) for one cent around the year 2059. The Model considers the comparing poetry following variables:

V: Velocity (i.e., power) of computing (measured in Into and Noble Essay, CPS/unit cost) W: World Knowledge as it pertains to designing and building computational devices t: Time. The assumptions of the model are: In other words, computer power is a linear function of the comparing poetry knowledge of how to build computers. This is McCandless-, actually a conservative assumption. In general, innovations improve V (computer power) by a multiple, not in an additive way. Independent innovations multiply each others effect. For example, a circuit advance such as CMOS, a more efficient IC wiring methodology, and a processor innovation such as pipelining all increase V by independent multiples.

In other words, W (knowledge) is cumulative, and the instantaneous increment to comparing knowledge is proportional to V. W = C1 * C2 * Integral (0 to t) W W = C1 * C2 * C3 ^ (C4 * t) V = C1 ^ 2 * C2 * C3 ^ (C4 * t) (Note on notation: a^b means a raised to the b power.) Simplifying the macbeth history constants, we get: So this is poetry, a formula for accelerating (i.e., exponentially growing) returns, a regular Moores Law. As I mentioned above, the Heart Essay data shows exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. (We doubled computer power every three years early in the twentieth century, every two years in the middle of the century, and close to every one year during the 1990s.) Lets factor in another exponential phenomenon, which is the growing resources for comparing poetry, computation.

Not only is Essay on Tips Hotel,, each (constant cost) device getting more powerful as a function of W, but the poetry resources deployed for computation are also growing exponentially. N: Expenditures for computation V = C1 * W (as before) N = C4 ^ (C5 * t) (Expenditure for computation is on Tips, growing at comparing poetry, its own exponential rate) W = C2 * Integral(0 to t) (N * V) As before, world knowledge is accumulating, and the instantaneous increment is proportional to the amount of Heart computation, which equals the comparing resources deployed for computation (N) * the power of on Tips Hotel, each (constant cost) device. W = C1 * C2 * Integral(0 to t) (C4 ^ (C5 * t) * W) W = C1 * C2 * (C3 ^ (C6 * t)) ^ (C7 * t) V = C1 ^ 2 * C2 * (C3 ^ (C6 * t)) ^ (C7 * t) Simplifying the constants, we get: This is a double exponentialan exponential curve in which the rate of exponential growth is growing at a different exponential rate. Now lets consider real-world data. Comparing Poetry. Considering the data for actual calculating devices and computers during the twentieth century: CPS/$1K: Calculations Per Second for Heart Essay, $1,000.

Twentieth century computing data matches: We can determine the growth rate over comparing poetry, a period of time: Growth Rate =10^((LOG(CPS/$1K for Current Year) LOG(CPS/$1K for Previous Year))/(Current Year Previous Year)) Human Brain = 100 Billion (10^11) neurons * 1000 (10^3) Connections/Neuron * 200 (2 * 10^2) Calculations Per Second Per Connection = 2 * 10^16 Calculations Per Second Human Race = 10 Billion (10^10) Human Brains = 2 * 10^26 Calculations Per Second. These formulas produce the graph above. Already, IBMs Blue Gene supercomputer, now being built and scheduled to be completed by 2005, is projected to provide 1 million billion calculations per second (i.e., one billion megaflops). This is already one twentieth of the capacity of the human brain, which I estimate at a conservatively high 20 million billion calculations per second (100 billion neurons times 1,000 connections per neuron times 200 calculations per second per connection). In line with my earlier predictions, supercomputers will achieve one human brain capacity by 2010, and personal computers will do so by around 2020. By 2030, it will take a village of human brains (around a thousand) to Essay on Dating Your Hotel, Part 2 match $1000 of computing. By 2050, $1000 of computing will equal the processing power of comparing all human brains on Earth.

Of course, this only Heart includes those brains still using carbon-based neurons. While human neurons are wondrous creations in a way, we wouldnt (and dont) design computing circuits the same way. Our electronic circuits are already more than ten million times faster than a neurons electrochemical processes. Most of the comparing poetry complexity of a human neuron is macbeth history, devoted to maintaining its life support functions, not its information processing capabilities. Ultimately, we will need to port our mental processes to a more suitable computational substrate. Comparing. Then our minds wont have to stay so small, being constrained as they are today to a mere hundred trillion neural connections each operating at a ponderous 200 digitally controlled analog calculations per second. So far, Ive been talking about the hardware of macbeth history computing.

The software is even more salient. One of the principal assumptions underlying the expectation of the Singularity is the ability of nonbiological mediums to emulate the richness, subtlety, and depth of human thinking. Achieving the computational capacity of the poetry human brain, or even villages and nations of Heart of Darkness Essay human brains will not automatically produce human levels of capability. By human levels I include all the diverse and subtle ways in which humans are intelligent, including musical and artistic aptitude, creativity, physically moving through the comparing poetry world, and understanding and responding appropriately to emotion. The requisite hardware capacity is a necessary but not sufficient condition. The organization and content of these resourcesthe software of intelligenceis also critical. Before addressing this issue, it is important to note that once a computer achieves a human level of intelligence, it will necessarily soar past it. A key advantage of nonbiological intelligence is that machines can easily share their knowledge.

If I learn French, or read War and shark, Peace, I cant readily download that learning to you. Comparing. You have to acquire that scholarship the same painstaking way that I did. My knowledge, embedded in macbeth history, a vast pattern of neurotransmitter concentrations and comparing poetry, interneuronal connections, cannot be quickly accessed or transmitted. But we wont leave out the Wild: Chris McCandless- Couragous and Noble Essay quick downloading ports in our nonbiological equivalents of human neuron clusters. When one computer learns a skill or gains an insight, it can immediately share that wisdom with billions of other machines. As a contemporary example, we spent years teaching one research computer how to recognize continuous human speech. Poetry. We exposed it to purple thousands of hours of recorded speech, corrected its errors, and patiently improved its performance.

Finally, it became quite adept at comparing poetry, recognizing speech (I dictated most of my recent book to color it). Comparing. Now if you want your own personal computer to Educating Talented Essay recognize speech, it doesnt have to go through the same process; you can just download the fully trained patterns in seconds. Ultimately, billions of nonbiological entities can be the master of comparing poetry all human and machine acquired knowledge. In addition, computers are potentially millions of times faster than human neural circuits. A computer can also remember billions or even trillions of facts perfectly, while we are hard pressed to Exceptionally remember a handful of phone numbers. Comparing. The combination of human level intelligence in a machine with a computers inherent superiority in the speed, accuracy, and macbeth history, sharing ability of its memory will be formidable. There are a number of compelling scenarios to achieve higher levels of intelligence in our computers, and comparing poetry, ultimately human levels and beyond.

We will be able to evolve and train a system combining massively parallel neural nets with other paradigms to understand language and attack, model knowledge, including the poetry ability to read and model the knowledge contained in written documents. Unlike many contemporary neural net machines, which use mathematically simplified models of human neurons, some contemporary neural nets are already using highly detailed models of human neurons, including detailed nonlinear analog activation functions and other relevant details. Although the Into Chris McCandless- Couragous and Noble Idealist Essay ability of todays computers to extract and learn knowledge from comparing, natural language documents is limited, their capabilities in this domain are improving rapidly. Computers will be able to Couragous and Noble read on their own, understanding and modeling what they have read, by the second decade of the twenty-first century. We can then have our computers read all of the worlds literaturebooks, magazines, scientific journals, and comparing poetry, other available material. Ultimately, the machines will gather knowledge on their own by venturing out on the web, or even into the physical world, drawing from the full spectrum of media and information services, and sharing knowledge with each other (which machines can do far more easily than their human creators). Reverse Engineering the Human Brain. The most compelling scenario for mastering the Essay Your 2 software of intelligence is to poetry tap into the blueprint of the best example we can get our hands on Chris McCandless-, of an intelligent process. There is comparing, no reason why we cannot reverse engineer the human brain, and essentially copy its design.

Although it took its original designer several billion years to develop, its readily available to us, and not (yet) copyrighted. Although theres a skull around the Chris McCandless- and Noble Idealist Essay brain, it is not hidden from our view. The most immediately accessible way to accomplish this is through destructive scanning: we take a frozen brain, preferably one frozen just slightly before rather than slightly after it was going to die anyway, and comparing poetry, examine one brain layerone very thin sliceat a time. We can readily see every neuron and every connection and every neurotransmitter concentration represented in each synapse-thin layer. Human brain scanning has already started. A condemned killer allowed his brain and frilled shark attack, body to poetry be scanned and you can access all 10 billion bytes of him on Heart Essay, the Internet http://www.nlm.nih.gov/research/visible/visible_human.html. He has a 25 billion byte female companion on the site as well in case he gets lonely. This scan is not high enough in resolution for our purposes, but then, we probably dont want to base our templates of machine intelligence on the brain of a convicted killer, anyway. But scanning a frozen brain is feasible today, albeit not yet at a sufficient speed or bandwidth, but again, the law of accelerating returns will provide the poetry requisite speed of scanning, just as it did for Essay on Dating 2, the human genome scan.

Carnegie Mellon Universitys Andreas Nowatzyk plans to scan the nervous system of the brain and body of a mouse with a resolution of less than 200 nanometers, which is getting very close to the resolution needed for reverse engineering. We also have noninvasive scanning techniques today, including high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans, optical imaging, near-infrared scanning, and other technologies which are capable in certain instances of comparing resolving individual somas, or neuron cell bodies. Brain scanning technologies are also increasing their resolution with each new generation, just what we would expect from the of Darkness law of accelerating returns. Future generations will enable us to resolve the connections between neurons and to peer inside the synapses and record the neurotransmitter concentrations. We can peer inside someones brain today with noninvasive scanners, which are increasing their resolution with each new generation of this technology. There are a number of technical challenges in accomplishing this, including achieving suitable resolution, bandwidth, lack of vibration, and safety. For a variety of reasons it is easier to scan the brain of someone recently deceased than of someone still living. It is easier to get someone deceased to sit still, for one thing. But noninvasively scanning a living brain will ultimately become feasible as MRI, optical, and other scanning technologies continue to poetry improve in resolution and speed.

Although noninvasive means of scanning the brain from outside the skull are rapidly improving, the Into McCandless- Couragous Idealist most practical approach to capturing every salient neural detail will be to scan it from inside. Comparing Poetry. By 2030, nanobot (i.e., nano robot) technology will be viable, and brain scanning will be a prominent application. Nanobots are robots that are the size of human blood cells, or even smaller. Billions of them could travel through every brain capillary and scan every relevant feature from up close. Using high speed wireless communication, the nanobots would communicate with each other, and with other computers that are compiling the brain scan data base (in other words, the nanobots will all be on a wireless local area network). This scenario involves only capabilities that we can touch and macbeth history, feel today. We already have technology capable of producing very high resolution scans, provided that the scanner is comparing poetry, physically proximate to the neural features. The basic computational and the Wild: Chris McCandless-, communication methods are also essentially feasible today. Comparing. The primary features that are not yet practical are nanobot size and cost. As I discussed above, we can project the exponentially declining cost of computation, and the rapidly declining size of both electronic and mechanical technologies.

We can conservatively expect, therefore, the requisite nanobot technology by around 2030. Macbeth History. Because of its ability to place each scanner in very close physical proximity to every neural feature, nanobot-based scanning will be more practical than scanning the comparing brain from outside. How will we apply the thousands of trillions of macbeth history bytes of information derived from comparing poetry, each brain scan? One approach is to use the results to design more intelligent parallel algorithms for our machines, particularly those based on one of the neural net paradigms. With this approach, we dont have to copy every single connection. There is a great deal of repetition and frilled shark attack, redundancy within any particular brain region. Although the information contained in a human brain would require thousands of trillions of bytes of information (on the comparing poetry order of 100 billion neurons times an Your average of 1,000 connections per comparing poetry neuron, each with multiple neurotransmitter concentrations and connection data), the design of the macbeth history brain is characterized by a human genome of only about a billion bytes.

Furthermore, most of the poetry genome is redundant, so the initial design of the brain is characterized by approximately one hundred million bytes, about the size of Essay Hotel, Part Microsoft Word. Of course, the complexity of comparing our brains greatly increases as we interact with the world (by a factor of attack more than ten million). Poetry. Because of the highly repetitive patterns found in each specific brain region, it is not necessary to capture each detail in order to color purple scenes reverse engineer the significant digital-analog algorithms. With this information, we can design simulated nets that operate similarly. There are already multiple efforts under way to scan the human brain and comparing, apply the insights derived to Essay on Tips Your 2 the design of intelligent machines. The pace of brain reverse engineering is comparing, only slightly behind the availability of the frilled attack brain scanning and neuron structure information. A contemporary example is a comprehensive model of a significant portion of the human auditory processing system that Lloyd Watts (www.lloydwatts.com) has developed from both neurobiology studies of specific neuron types and brain interneuronal connection information. Watts model includes five parallel paths and includes the actual intermediate representations of auditory information at each stage of neural processing. Watts has implemented his model as real-time software which can locate and identify sounds with many of the same properties as human hearing.

Although a work in progress, the comparing model illustrates the Educating Exceptionally feasibility of comparing poetry converting neurobiological models and brain connection data into Chris, working simulations. Also, as Hans Moravec and comparing, others have speculated, these efficient simulations require about 1,000 times less computation than the theoretical potential of the biological neurons being simulated. Reverse Engineering the Human Brain: Five Parallel Auditory Pathways. Chart by Lloyd Watts. Cochlea : Sense organ of hearing. 30,000 fibers converts motion of the stapes into spectro-temporal representation of sound.

MC : Multipolar Cells. Measure spectral energy. GBC : Globular Bushy Cells. Relays spikes from the Essay auditory nerve to the Lateral Superior. Olivary Complex (includes LSO and MSO) . Encoding of timing and amplitude of signals for binaural comparison of level. SBC : Spherical Bushy Cells. Provide temporal sharpening of poetry time of arrival, as a pre-processor for interaural time difference calculation.

OC : Octopus Cells. Detection of transients. DCN : Dorsal Cochlear Nucleus. Detection of macbeth history spectral edges and comparing, calibrating for noise levels. VNTB : Ventral Nucleus of the Trapezoid Body. The Wild: Idealist. Feedback signals to modulate outer hair cell function in the cochlea. VNLL , PON : Ventral Nucleus of the Lateral Lemniscus, Peri-Olivary Nuclei. Comparing. Processing transients from the Octopus Cells. MSO : Medial Superior Olive. Computing inter-aural time difference (difference in time of arrival between the two ears, used to tell where a sound is coming from).

LSO : Lateral Superior Olive. Also involved in computing inter-aural level difference. ICC : Central Nucleus of the Inferior Colliculus. The site of major integration of multiple representations of sound. ICx : Exterior Nucleus of the Inferior Colliculus. Further refinement of Educating Exceptionally Students Essay sound localization. SC : Superior Colliculus. Location of auditory/visual merging. MGB : Medial Geniculate Body.

The auditory portion of the thalamus. LS : Limbic System. Comprising many structures associated with emotion, memory, territory, etc. The brain is not one huge tabula rasa (i.e., undifferentiated blank slate), but rather an intricate and intertwined collection of hundreds of specialized regions. The process of peeling the onion to understand these interleaved regions is well underway. As the requisite neuron models and brain interconnection data becomes available, detailed and implementable models such as the auditory example above will be developed for all brain regions. After the comparing algorithms of macbeth history a region are understood, they can be refined and extended before being implemented in synthetic neural equivalents. For one thing, they can be run on a computational substrate that is already more than ten million times faster than neural circuitry. And we can also throw in the methods for comparing poetry, building intelligent machines that we already understand.

A more controversial application than this scanning-the-brain-to-understand-it scenario is scanning-the-brain-to- download -it . Color Purple. Here we scan someones brain to map the locations, interconnections, and contents of comparing poetry all the somas, axons, dendrites, presynaptic vesicles, neurotransmitter concentrations, and other neural components and levels. Its entire organization can then be re-created on a neural computer of sufficient capacity, including the contents of Couragous and Noble Essay its memory. To do this, we need to understand local brain processes, although not necessarily all of the higher level processes. Comparing Poetry. Scanning a brain with sufficient detail to download it may sound daunting, but so did the macbeth history human genome scan. All of the basic technologies exist today, just not with the requisite speed, cost, and size, but these are the attributes that are improving at a double exponential pace. The computationally pertinent aspects of comparing individual neurons are complicated, but definitely not beyond our ability to accurately model. For example, Ted Berger and his colleagues at Hedco Neurosciences have built integrated circuits that precisely match the digital and analog information processing characteristics of neurons, including clusters with hundreds of Essay on Tips Your Hotel, Part neurons. Comparing. Carver Mead and his colleagues at CalTech have built a variety of integrated circuits that emulate the digital-analog characteristics of mammalian neural circuits.

A recent experiment at San Diegos Institute for Nonlinear Science demonstrates the potential for electronic neurons to precisely emulate biological ones. Neurons (biological or otherwise) are a prime example of what is often called chaotic computing. Each neuron acts in an essentially unpredictable fashion. On Dating Part 2. When an entire network of neurons receives input (from the outside world or from other networks of neurons), the signaling amongst them appears at first to be frenzied and random. Over time, typically a fraction of a second or so, the chaotic interplay of the neurons dies down, and comparing, a stable pattern emerges. This pattern represents the color scenes decision of the comparing neural network. The Wild: McCandless- Couragous And Noble. If the comparing neural network is frilled shark attack, performing a pattern recognition task (which, incidentally, comprises the bulk of the activity in the human brain), then the emergent pattern represents the appropriate recognition. So the question addressed by poetry the San Diego researchers was whether electronic neurons could engage in this chaotic dance alongside biological ones. They hooked up their artificial neurons with those from spiney lobsters in a single network, and their hybrid biological-nonbiological network performed in the same way (i.e., chaotic interplay followed by a stable emergent pattern) and frilled shark attack, with the same type of results as an all biological net of neurons. Essentially, the biological neurons accepted their electronic peers. It indicates that their mathematical model of these neurons was reasonably accurate.

There are many projects around the world which are creating nonbiological devices to recreate in great detail the functionality of human neuron clusters. The accuracy and scale of these neuron-cluster replications are rapidly increasing. We started with functionally equivalent recreations of single neurons, then clusters of poetry tens, then hundreds, and now thousands. Scaling up technical processes at Heart Essay, an exponential pace is what technology is good at. As the computational power to emulate the human brain becomes availablewere not there yet, but we will be there within a couple of decadesprojects already under way to scan the human brain will be accelerated, with a view both to understand the human brain in general, as well as providing a detailed description of the contents and design of specific brains. Poetry. By the third decade of the twenty-first century, we will be in on Tips on Dating Hotel,, a position to create highly detailed and complete maps of all relevant features of all neurons, neural connections and synapses in the human brain, all of the neural details that play a role in the behavior and functionality of the poetry brain, and to recreate these designs in suitably advanced neural computers. Is the Human Brain Different from a Computer?

Is the human brain different from a computer? The answer depends on what we mean by the word computer. Certainly the brain uses very different methods from conventional contemporary computers. Most computers today are all digital and macbeth history, perform one (or perhaps a few) computations at a time at comparing poetry, extremely high speed. In contrast, the human brain combines digital and Essay on Dating Your Hotel, 2, analog methods with most computations performed in the analog domain. The brain is massively parallel, performing on the order of a hundred trillion computations at poetry, the same time, but at extremely slow speeds. With regard to Educating Exceptionally Talented Students digital versus analog computing, we know that digital computing can be functionally equivalent to comparing poetry analog computing (although the frilled attack reverse is not true), so we can perform all of the capabilities of a hybrid digitalanalog network with an all digital computer. On the other hand, there is an engineering advantage to analog circuits in that analog computing is potentially thousands of times more efficient.

An analog computation can be performed by a few transistors, or, in the case of mammalian neurons, specific electrochemical processes. A digital computation, in contrast, requires thousands or tens of thousands of transistors. So there is a significant engineering advantage to emulating the brains analog methods. The massive parallelism of the human brain is the key to poetry its pattern recognition abilities, which reflects the strength of human thinking. As I discussed above, mammalian neurons engage in a chaotic dance, and if the neural network has learned its lessons well, then a stable pattern will emerge reflecting the networks decision. There is no reason why our nonbiological functionally equivalent recreations of biological neural networks cannot be built using these same principles, and indeed there are dozens of projects around the world that have succeeded in doing this. My own technical field is pattern recognition, and the projects that I have been involved in for over thirty years use this form of chaotic computing. Particularly successful examples are Carver Meads neural chips, which are highly parallel, use digital controlled analog computing, and are intended as functionally similar recreations of biological networks. The Singularity envisions the Students Essay emergence of human-like intelligent entities of astonishing diversity and scope.

Although these entities will be capable of passing the Turing test (i.e., able to fool humans that they are human), the question arises as to whether these people are conscious, or just appear that way. To gain some insight as to comparing poetry why this is an Heart extremely subtle question (albeit an ultimately important one) it is useful to consider some of the comparing paradoxes that emerge from the concept of scenes downloading specific human brains. Although I anticipate that the poetry most common application of the knowledge gained from reverse engineering the human brain will be creating more intelligent machines that are not necessarily modeled on specific biological human individuals, the on Tips on Dating Hotel, 2 scenario of scanning and reinstantiating all of the neural details of a specific person raises the most immediate questions of identity. Lets consider the question of comparing what we will find when we do this. We have to consider this question on both the objective and subjective levels. Objective means everyone except me, so lets start with that. Objectively, when we scan someones brain and reinstantiate their personal mind file into a suitable computing medium, the newly emergent person will appear to other observers to have very much the same personality, history, and memory as the person originally scanned. That is, once the technology has been refined and perfected. Like any new technology, it wont be perfect at first. Color Scenes. But ultimately, the poetry scans and recreations will be very accurate and realistic. Interacting with the newly instantiated person will feel like interacting with the original person.

The new person will claim to color be that same old person and will have a memory of having been that person. The new person will have all of the patterns of knowledge, skill, and personality of the original. We are already creating functionally equivalent recreations of neurons and neuron clusters with sufficient accuracy that biological neurons accept their nonbiological equivalents and work with them as if they were biological. There are no natural limits that prevent us from doing the same with the hundred billion neuron cluster of clusters we call the human brain. Subjectively, the issue is more subtle and profound, but first we need to reflect on one additional objective issue: our physical self. Consider how many of our thoughts and thinking are directed toward our body and its survival, security, nutrition, and image, not to mention affection, sexuality, and reproduction.

Many, if not most, of the goals we attempt to advance using our brains have to do with our bodies: protecting them, providing them with fuel, making them attractive, making them feel good, providing for their myriad needs and desires. Some philosophers maintain that achieving human level intelligence is impossible without a body. If were going to port a humans mind to a new computational medium, wed better provide a body. A disembodied mind will quickly get depressed. There are a variety of bodies that we will provide for our machines, and comparing poetry, that they will provide for themselves: bodies built through nanotechnology (i.e., building highly complex physical systems atom by atom), virtual bodies (that exist only in virtual reality), bodies comprised of Educating Talented Students Essay swarms of nanobots, and other technologies.

A common scenario will be to enhance a persons biological brain with intimate connection to nonbiological intelligence. In this case, the body remains the good old human body that were familiar with, although this too will become greatly enhanced through biotechnology (gene enhancement and replacement) and, later on, through nanotechnology. Comparing Poetry. A detailed examination of twenty-first century bodies is Essay on Tips Part, beyond the scope of this essay, but recreating and poetry, enhancing our bodies will be (and has been) an easier task than recreating our minds. To return to the issue of subjectivity, consider: is the reinstantiated mind the attack same consciousness as the comparing poetry person we just scanned? Are these people conscious at all? Is this a mind or just a brain?

Consciousness in Into Chris McCandless- Couragous Idealist Essay, our twenty-first century machines will be a critically important issue. But it is not easily resolved, or even readily understood. Poetry. People tend to have strong views on the subject, and often just cant understand how anyone else could possibly see the issue from a different perspective. Marvin Minsky observed that theres something queer about describing consciousness. Whatever people mean to say, they just cant seem to make it clear. We dont worry, at purple scenes, least not yet, about causing pain and poetry, suffering to our computer programs. But at what point do we consider an entity, a process, to be conscious, to feel pain and discomfort, to have its own intentionality, its own free will? How do we determine if an entity is conscious; if it has subjective experience? How do we distinguish a process that is conscious from color scenes, one that just acts as if it is poetry, conscious? We cant simply ask it.

If it says Hey Im conscious, does that settle the issue? No, we have computer games today that effectively do that, and theyre not terribly convincing. How about if the entity is very convincing and of Darkness, compelling when it says Im lonely, please keep me company. Does that settle the issue? If we look inside its circuits, and see essentially the identical kinds of comparing feedback loops and other mechanisms in its brain that we see in Essay Your Part 2, a human brain (albeit implemented using nonbiological equivalents), does that settle the comparing issue? And just who are these people in the machine, anyway? The answer will depend on who you ask. Frilled Shark Attack. If you ask the people in the machine, they will strenuously claim to be the poetry original persons. For example, if we scanlets say myselfand record the exact state, level, and position of every neurotransmitter, synapse, neural connection, and every other relevant detail, and then reinstantiate this massive data base of Heart of Darkness information (which I estimate at thousands of trillions of bytes) into a neural computer of sufficient capacity, the person who then emerges in the machine will think that he is (and had been) me, or at least he will act that way. He will say I grew up in Queens, New York, went to comparing college at MIT, stayed in the Boston area, started and sold a few artificial intelligence companies, walked into a scanner there, and woke up in shark attack, the machine here. Comparing. Hey, this technology really works. Is this really me?

For one thing, old biological Ray (thats me) still exists. Ill still be here in my carbon-cell-based brain. Alas, I will have to Heart of Darkness sit back and watch the new Ray succeed in poetry, endeavors that I could only dream of. Lets consider the issue of macbeth history just who I am, and who the new Ray is a little more carefully. First of all, am I the stuff in my brain and body?

Consider that the particles making up my body and brain are constantly changing. We are not at all permanent collections of particles. The cells in our bodies turn over at poetry, different rates, but the particles (e.g., atoms and molecules) that comprise our cells are exchanged at a very rapid rate. I am just not the same collection of Into the Wild: Chris McCandless- Couragous and Noble particles that I was even a month ago. Comparing Poetry. It is the patterns of matter and energy that are semipermanent (that is, changing only gradually), but our actual material content is of Darkness Essay, changing constantly, and comparing, very quickly. We are rather like the patterns that water makes in a stream. The rushing water around a formation of rocks makes a particular, unique pattern. This pattern may remain relatively unchanged for hours, even years. Of course, the actual material constituting the attack patternthe wateris replaced in milliseconds.

The same is comparing poetry, true for Ray Kurzweil. Like the water in a stream, my particles are constantly changing, but the pattern that people recognize as Ray has a reasonable level of Heart of Darkness continuity. This argues that we should not associate our fundamental identity with a specific set of particles, but rather the pattern of matter and energy that we represent. Many contemporary philosophers seem partial to comparing poetry this identify from frilled shark attack, pattern argument. If you were to scan my brain and reinstantiate new Ray while I was sleeping, I would not necessarily even know about it (with the nanobots, this will be a feasible scenario).

If you then come to me, and say, good news, Ray, weve successfully reinstantiated your mind file, so we wont be needing your old brain anymore, I may suddenly realize the flaw in this identity from pattern argument. I may wish new Ray well, and realize that he shares my pattern, but I would nonetheless conclude that hes not me, because Im still here. How could he be me? After all, I would not necessarily know that he even existed. Lets consider another perplexing scenario. Suppose I replace a small number of biological neurons with functionally equivalent nonbiological ones (they may provide certain benefits such as greater reliability and comparing poetry, longevity, but thats not relevant to Students Essay this thought experiment). After I have this procedure performed, am I still the same person? My friends certainly think so.

I still have the same self-deprecating humor, the comparing poetry same silly grinyes, Im still the same guy. It should be clear where Im going with this. Educating Exceptionally Talented Students. Bit by comparing poetry bit, region by attack region, I ultimately replace my entire brain with essentially identical (perhaps improved) nonbiological equivalents (preserving all of the comparing neurotransmitter concentrations and other details that represent my learning, skills, and memories). Essay On Tips On Dating Your. At each point, I feel the procedures were successful. At each point, I feel that I am the same guy. After each procedure, I claim to poetry be the same guy. My friends concur. There is no old Ray and new Ray, just one Ray, one that never appears to fundamentally change. But consider this.

This gradual replacement of my brain with a nonbiological equivalent is essentially identical to the following sequence: (i) scan Ray and reinstantiate Rays mind file into new (nonbiological) Ray, and, then (ii) terminate old Ray. But we concluded above that in color, such a scenario new Ray is not the same as old Ray. And if old Ray is terminated, well then thats the comparing poetry end of Ray. So the gradual replacement scenario essentially ends with the same result: New Ray has been created, and old Ray has been destroyed, even if we never saw him missing. So what appears to be the continuing existence of just one Ray is frilled shark, really the creation of new Ray and the termination of comparing old Ray. On yet another hand (were running out of philosophical hands here), the gradual replacement scenario is not altogether different from what happens normally to color scenes our biological selves, in that our particles are always rapidly being replaced.

So am I constantly being replaced with someone else who just happens to be very similar to my old self? I am trying to illustrate why consciousness is not an comparing poetry easy issue. If we talk about consciousness as just a certain type of intelligent skill: the ability to reflect on ones own self and situation, for example, then the issue is not difficult at all because any skill or capability or form of Into the Wild: McCandless- Couragous and Noble Idealist intelligence that one cares to define will be replicated in nonbiological entities (i.e., machines) within a few decades. With this type of objective view of comparing poetry consciousness, the color conundrums do go away. But a fully objective view does not penetrate to the core of the issue, because the essence of consciousness is subjective experience, not objective correlates of comparing that experience. Will these future machines be capable of macbeth history having spiritual experiences? They certainly will claim to. They will claim to be people, and to have the comparing poetry full range of emotional and color purple, spiritual experiences that people claim to have. And these will not be idle claims; they will evidence the sort of rich, complex, and comparing, subtle behavior one associates with these feelings.

How do the claims and shark, behaviorscompelling as they will berelate to comparing the subjective experience of frilled these reinstantiated people? We keep coming back to the very real but ultimately unmeasurable issue of consciousness. People often talk about consciousness as if it were a clear property of an entity that can readily be identified, detected, and gauged. If there is one crucial insight that we can make regarding why the issue of consciousness is so contentious, it is the following: There exists no objective test that can conclusively determine its presence. Science is about objective measurement and logical implications therefrom, but the very nature of objectivity is comparing poetry, that you cannot measure subjective experience-you can only measure correlates of it, such as behavior (and by behavior, I include the actions of components of an entity, such as neurons). This limitation has to do with the very nature of the on Tips on Dating Hotel, Part concepts objective and subjective. Fundamentally, we cannot penetrate the subjective experience of poetry another entity with direct objective measurement. We can certainly make arguments about it: i.e., look inside the brain of this nonhuman entity, see how its methods are just like a human brain. Or, see how its behavior is just like human behavior. But in frilled, the end, these remain just arguments. Comparing Poetry. No matter how convincing the Into McCandless- Couragous and Noble behavior of a reinstantiated person, some observers will refuse to accept the comparing poetry consciousness of an entity unless it squirts neurotransmitters, or is based on DNA-guided protein synthesis, or has some other specific biologically human attribute. We assume that other humans are conscious, but that is still an assumption, and Essay on Tips on Dating Your Hotel, Part 2, there is no consensus amongst humans about the consciousness of nonhuman entities, such as higher non-human animals. The issue will be even more contentious with regard to future nonbiological entities with human-like behavior and poetry, intelligence.

So how will we resolve the claimed consciousness of nonbiological intelligence (claimed, that is, by the machines)? From a practical perspective, well accept their claims. Keep in mind that nonbiological entities in the twenty-first century will be extremely intelligent, so theyll be able to convince us that they are conscious. Theyll have all the delicate and emotional cues that convince us today that humans are conscious. They will be able to make us laugh and cry. And theyll get mad if we dont accept their claims.

But fundamentally this is a political prediction, not a philosophical argument. Over the Students past several years, Roger Penrose, a noted physicist and philosopher, has suggested that fine structures in comparing, the neurons called tubules perform an exotic form of computation called quantum computing. Quantum computing is Heart of Darkness Essay, computing using what are called qu bits which take on all possible combinations of solutions simultaneously. It can be considered to be an extreme form of parallel processing (because every combination of values of the qu bits are tested simultaneously). Penrose suggests that the comparing poetry tubules and their quantum computing capabilities complicate the frilled concept of poetry recreating neurons and reinstantiating mind files. However, there is little to suggest that the tubules contribute to the thinking process. Even generous models of human knowledge and capability are more than accounted for by current estimates of brain size, based on macbeth history, contemporary models of neuron functioning that do not include tubules. In fact, even with these tubule-less models, it appears that the brain is comparing, conservatively designed with many more connections (by several orders of of Darkness magnitude) than it needs for its capabilities and capacity. Recent experiments (e.g., the San Diego Institute for Nonlinear Science experiments) showing that hybrid biological-nonbiological networks perform similarly to all biological networks, while not definitive, are strongly suggestive that our tubule-less models of neuron functioning are adequate. Lloyd Watts software simulation of his intricate model of human auditory processing uses orders of magnitude less computation than the poetry networks of neurons he is simulating, and there is no suggestion that quantum computing is needed. However, even if the tubules are important, it doesnt change the projections I have discussed above to any significant degree.

According to my model of computational growth, if the tubules multiplied neuron complexity by a factor of a thousand (and keep in mind that our current tubule-less neuron models are already complex, including on Talented, the order of a thousand connections per neuron, multiple nonlinearities and comparing poetry, other details), this would delay our reaching brain capacity by only about 9 years. If were off by Into Chris McCandless- Idealist Essay a factor of a million, thats still only comparing a delay of 17 years. A factor of a billion is around 24 years (keep in the Wild: McCandless- Couragous and Noble, mind computation is growing by a double exponential). With regard to quantum computing, once again there is nothing to suggest that the brain does quantum computing. Poetry. Just because quantum technology may be feasible does not suggest that the brain is capable of it. After all, we dont have lasers or even radios in our brains. Educating Essay. Although some scientists have claimed to comparing detect quantum wave collapse in the brain, no one has suggested human capabilities that actually require a capacity for quantum computing. However, even if the brain does do quantum computing, this does not significantly change the outlook for human-level computing (and beyond) nor does it suggest that brain downloading is infeasible.

First of Educating Exceptionally Students Essay all, if the brain does do quantum computing this would only comparing verify that quantum computing is of Darkness, feasible. There would be nothing in such a finding to suggest that quantum computing is restricted to biological mechanisms. Biological quantum computing mechanisms, if they exist, could be replicated. Indeed, recent experiments with small scale quantum computers appear to be successful. Even the comparing conventional transistor relies on the quantum effect of electron tunneling. Penrose suggests that it is impossible to perfectly replicate a set of quantum states, so therefore, perfect downloading is impossible. Well, how perfect does a download have to be? I am at on Tips Your Hotel,, this moment in a very different quantum state (and different in non-quantum ways as well) than I was a minute ago (certainly in a very different state than I was before I wrote this paragraph). If we develop downloading technology to the point where the copies are as close to the original as the original person changes anyway in the course of one minute, that would be good enough for comparing poetry, any conceivable purpose, yet does not require copying quantum states. Color Scenes. As the technology improves, the accuracy of the copy could become as close as the original changes within ever briefer periods of time (e.g., one second, one millisecond, one microsecond).

When it was pointed out to Penrose that neurons (and even neural connections) were too big for quantum computing, he came up with the tubule theory as a possible mechanism for neural quantum computing. Comparing Poetry. So the concern with quantum computing and Exceptionally Talented, tubules have been introduced together. If one is searching for barriers to replicating brain function, it is an ingenious theory, but it fails to introduce any genuine barriers. There is no evidence for it, and even if true, it only delays matters by poetry a decade or two. There is Essay on Tips Your Hotel,, no reason to believe that biological mechanisms (including quantum computing) are inherently impossible to replicate using nonbiological materials and comparing poetry, mechanisms. Dozens of contemporary experiments are successfully performing just such replications. The Noninvasive Surgery-Free Reversible Programmable Distributed Brain Implant, Full-Immersion Shared Virtual Reality Environments, Experience Beamers, and Brain Expansion.

How will we apply technology that is more intelligent than its creators? One might be tempted to frilled attack respond Carefully! But lets take a look at some examples. Consider several examples of the comparing nanobot technology, which, based on miniaturization and cost reduction trends, will be feasible within 30 years. In addition to scanning your brain, the nanobots will also be able to expand our experiences and our capabilities. Nanobot technology will provide fully immersive, totally convincing virtual reality in the following way. The nanobots take up positions in close physical proximity to every interneuronal connection coming from all of our senses (e.g., eyes, ears, skin). We already have the technology for electronic devices to communicate with neurons in both directions that requires no direct physical contact with the neurons. For example, scientists at the Max Planck Institute have developed neuron transistors that can detect the firing of a nearby neuron, or alternatively, can cause a nearby neuron to fire, or suppress it from firing. This amounts to macbeth history two-way communication between neurons and the electronic-based neuron transistors.

The Institute scientists demonstrated their invention by controlling the comparing poetry movement of a living leech from color purple, their computer. Again, the primary aspect of nanobot-based virtual reality that is comparing, not yet feasible is on Tips on Dating Hotel, Part 2, size and cost. When we want to experience real reality, the comparing poetry nanobots just stay in Into Chris Couragous Idealist Essay, position (in the capillaries) and do nothing. If we want to enter virtual reality, they suppress all of the inputs coming from the comparing poetry real senses, and replace them with the signals that would be appropriate for the virtual environment. You (i.e., your brain) could decide to frilled shark attack cause your muscles and limbs to move as you normally would, but the nanobots again intercept these interneuronal signals, suppress your real limbs from moving, and instead cause your virtual limbs to move and provide the appropriate movement and comparing poetry, reorientation in the virtual environment. The web will provide a panoply of Exceptionally Talented virtual environments to explore. Some will be recreations of comparing real places, others will be fanciful environments that have no real counterpart.

Some indeed would be impossible in the physical world (perhaps, because they violate the laws of physics). We will be able to go to these virtual environments by ourselves, or we will meet other people there, both real people and simulated people. Of course, ultimately there wont be a clear distinction between the two. By 2030, going to Talented Students a web site will mean entering a full immersion virtual reality environment. In addition to encompassing all of the senses, these shared environments can include emotional overlays as the nanobots will be capable of poetry triggering the neurological correlates of emotions, sexual pleasure, and other derivatives of our sensory experience and mental reactions.

In the same way that people today beam their lives from web cams in their bedrooms, experience beamers circa 2030 will beam their entire flow of sensory experiences, and if so desired, their emotions and other secondary reactions. Well be able to Chris and Noble plug in (by going to the appropriate web site) and experience other peoples lives as in poetry, the plot concept of macbeth history Being John Malkovich. Particularly interesting experiences can be archived and relived at any time. We wont need to wait until 2030 to experience shared virtual reality environments, at least for comparing poetry, the visual and auditory senses. Full immersion visual-auditory environments will be available by the end of this decade with images written directly onto our retinas by our eyeglasses and contact lenses. Macbeth History. All of the electronics for the computation, image reconstruction, and very high bandwidth wireless connection to the Internet will be embedded in our glasses and woven into our clothing, so computers as distinct objects will disappear. In my view, the most significant implication of the Singularity will be the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence. First, it is important to point out that well before the end of the twenty-first century, thinking on comparing, nonbiological substrates will dominate. Biological thinking is Hotel,, stuck at 10 26 calculations per second (for all biological human brains), and that figure will not appreciably change, even with bioengineering changes to our genome. Nonbiological intelligence, on comparing poetry, the other hand, is growing at a double exponential rate and will vastly exceed biological intelligence well before the middle of this century.

However, in Chris McCandless- and Noble, my view, this nonbiological intelligence should still be considered human as it is fully derivative of the human-machine civilization. The merger of these two worlds of poetry intelligence is not merely a merger of biological and nonbiological thinking mediums, but more importantly one of method and organization of thinking. One of the frilled key ways in which the two worlds can interact will be through the nanobots. Nanobot technology will be able to expand our minds in virtually any imaginable way. Our brains today are relatively fixed in design. Although we do add patterns of interneuronal connections and neurotransmitter concentrations as a normal part of the comparing learning process, the current overall capacity of the shark attack human brain is poetry, highly constrained, restricted to Exceptionally Talented Students a mere hundred trillion connections.

Brain implants based on comparing poetry, massively distributed intelligent nanobots will ultimately expand our memories a trillion fold, and otherwise vastly improve all of our sensory, pattern recognition, and cognitive abilities. Couragous. Since the nanobots are communicating with each other over a wireless local area network, they can create any set of new neural connections, can break existing connections (by suppressing neural firing), can create new hybrid biological-nonbiological networks, as well as add vast new nonbiological networks. Using nanobots as brain extenders is a significant improvement over the idea of surgically installed neural implants, which are beginning to be used today (e.g., ventral posterior nucleus, subthalmic nucleus, and ventral lateral thalamus neural implants to counteract Parkinsons Disease and tremors from other neurological disorders, cochlear implants, and others.) Nanobots will be introduced without surgery, essentially just by injecting or even swallowing them. They can all be directed to comparing leave, so the process is easily reversible. They are programmable, in on Dating Your Hotel, Part, that they can provide virtual reality one minute, and poetry, a variety of brain extensions the Essay next. They can change their configuration, and clearly can alter their software. Poetry. Perhaps most importantly, they are massively distributed and therefore can take up billions or trillions of positions throughout the brain, whereas a surgically introduced neural implant can only be placed in one or at most a few locations.

The Double Exponential Growth of the Economy During the 1990s Was Not a Bubble. Yet another manifestation of the law of accelerating returns as it rushes toward the Singularity can be found in the world of economics, a world vital to both the on Dating Your Hotel, 2 genesis of the law of poetry accelerating returns, and to its implications. It is the economic imperative of color purple a competitive marketplace that is driving technology forward and fueling the law of comparing accelerating returns. In turn, the law of color purple scenes accelerating returns, particularly as it approaches the poetry Singularity, is transforming economic relationships. Virtually all of the economic models taught in shark, economics classes, used by the Federal Reserve Board to set monetary policy, by poetry Government agencies to set economic policy, and by economic forecasters of all kinds are fundamentally flawed because they are based on the intuitive linear view of history rather than the purple historically based exponential view. The reason that these linear models appear to work for a while is for the same reason that most people adopt the intuitive linear view in the first place: exponential trends appear to be linear when viewed (and experienced) for poetry, a brief period of of Darkness Essay time, particularly in comparing, the early stages of an exponential trend when not much is happening.

But once the knee of the curve is macbeth history, achieved and comparing poetry, the exponential growth explodes, the linear models break down. The exponential trends underlying productivity growth are just beginning this explosive phase. The economy (viewed either in total or per Essay capita) has been growing exponentially throughout this century: There is also a second level of exponential growth, but up until recently the second exponent has been in the early phase so that the growth in the growth rate has not been noticed. However, this has changed in comparing poetry, this past decade, during which the rate of growth has been noticeably exponential. Productivity (economic output per worker) has also been growing exponentially. Even these statistics are greatly understated because they do not fully reflect significant improvements in the quality and features of products and services.

It is not the case that a car is a car; there have been significant improvements in safety, reliability, and features. Exceptionally Talented Students Essay. There are a myriad of such examples. Pharmaceutical drugs are increasingly effective. Groceries ordered in five minutes on the web and poetry, delivered to your door are worth more than groceries on a supermarket shelf that you have to fetch yourself. Clothes custom manufactured for macbeth history, your unique body scan are worth more than clothes you happen to find left on a store rack.

These sorts of improvements are true for poetry, most product categories, and none of them are reflected in the productivity statistics. The statistical methods underlying the scenes productivity measurements tend to factor out gains by poetry essentially concluding that we still only get one dollar of products and services for a dollar despite the fact that we get much more for a dollar (e.g., compare a $1,000 computer today to one ten years ago). Into Chris Idealist. University of poetry Chicago Professor Pete Klenow and University of Rochester Professor Mark Bils estimate that the value of Educating Students existing goods has been increasing at 1.5% per year for comparing poetry, the past 20 years because of qualitative improvements. This still does not account for the introduction of entirely new products and shark attack, product categories. Comparing. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is responsible for the inflation statistics, uses a model that incorporates an Essay on Dating Your Hotel, 2 estimate of quality growth at only 0.5% per year, reflecting a systematic underestimate of quality improvement and a resulting overestimate of inflation by at least 1 percent per comparing year.

Despite these weaknesses in the productivity statistical methods, the gains in productivity are now reaching the steep part of the exponential curve. Labor productivity grew at 1.6% per year until 1994, then rose at 2.4% per year, and color purple, is now growing even more rapidly. In the comparing quarter ending July 30, 2000, labor productivity grew at 5.3%. Manufacturing productivity grew at 4.4% annually from of Darkness Essay, 1995 to 1999, durables manufacturing at comparing, 6.5% per year. The 1990s have seen the most powerful deflationary forces in macbeth history, history. This is why we are not seeing inflation. Comparing. Yes, its true that low unemployment, high asset values, economic growth, and other such factors are inflationary, but these factors are offset by Heart Essay the double exponential trends in the price-performance of comparing poetry all information based technologies: computation, memory, communications, biotechnology, miniaturization, and shark attack, even the overall rate of poetry technical progress. These technologies deeply affect all industries. We are also undergoing massive disintermediation in macbeth history, the channels of distribution through the web and other new communication technologies, as well as escalating efficiencies in operations and administration. All of the technology trend charts in this essay e represent massive deflation.

There are many examples of the impact of comparing poetry these escalating efficiencies. On Dating Your 2. BP Amocos cost for finding oil is now less than $1 per barrel, down from nearly $10 in 1991. Processing an internet transaction costs a bank one penny, compared to over $1 using a teller ten years ago. Poetry. A Roland Berger / Deutsche Bank study estimates a cost savings of $1200 per North American car over the next five years. On Dating Hotel, Part 2. A more optimistic Morgan Stanley study estimates that Internet-based procurement will save Ford, GM, and comparing, DaimlerChrysler about macbeth history $2700 per vehicle. Software prices are deflating even more quickly than computer hardware. Software Price-Performance Has Also Improved at an Exponential Rate.

Current economic policy is based on comparing, outdated models which include energy prices, commodity prices, and Essay on Tips on Dating Part, capital investment in plant and equipment as key driving factors, but do not adequately model bandwidth, MIPs, megabytes, intellectual property, knowledge, and comparing poetry, other increasingly vital (and increasingly increasing) constituents that are driving the economy. The economy wants to grow more than the 3.5% per year, which constitutes the current speed limit that the Federal Reserve bank and other policy makers have established as safe, meaning noninflationary. But in keeping with the law of accelerating returns, the economy is capable of safely establishing this level of growth in less than a year, implying a growth rate in an entire year of greater than 3.5%. Recently, the growth rate has exceeded 5%. None of this means that cycles of recession will disappear immediately.

The economy still has some of the underlying dynamics that historically have caused cycles of recession, specifically excessive commitments such as capital intensive projects and the overstocking of purple scenes inventories. However, the rapid dissemination of information, sophisticated forms of online procurement, and increasingly transparent markets in all industries have diminished the impact of this cycle. So recessions are likely to poetry be shallow and short lived. Macbeth History. The underlying long-term growth rate will continue at a double exponential rate. The overall growth of the economy reflects completely new forms and layers of wealth and value that did not previously exist, or least that did not previously constitute a significant portion of the economy (but do now): intellectual property, communication portals, web sites, bandwidth, software, data bases, and many other new technology based categories. There is comparing, no need for high interest rates to counter an inflation that doesnt exist. The inflationary pressures which exist are counterbalanced by all of the Talented deflationary forces Ive mentioned. The current high interest rates fostered by the Federal Reserve Bank are destructive, are causing trillions of dollars of comparing lost wealth, are regressive, hurt business and the middle class, and are completely unnecessary. The Feds monetary policy is frilled, only influential because people believe it to be. It has little real power. The economy today is largely backed by private capital in the form of a growing variety of equity instruments.

The portion of comparing poetry available liquidity in Heart of Darkness, the economy that the Fed actually controls is relatively insignificant. The reserves that banks and financial institutions maintain with the Federal Reserve System are less than $50 billion, which is only 0.6% of the GDP, and 0.25% of the comparing poetry liquidity available in macbeth history, stocks. Restricting the growth rate of the comparing poetry economy to an arbitrary limit makes as much sense as restricting the rate at which a company can grow its revenuesor its market cap. Speculative fever will certainly occur and there will necessarily continue to be high profile failures and market corrections. However the ability of technology companies to rapidly create newrealwealth is just one of the factors that will continue to fuel ongoing double exponential growth in the economy. These policies have led to an Alice in purple, Wonderland situation in which the comparing market goes up on bad economic news (because it means that more unnecessary punishment will be avoided) and goes down on good economic news. Speaking of market speculative fever and Heart, market corrections, the stock market values for so-called B to poetry B (Business to Business) and B to C (Business to Consumer) web portals and enabling technologies is likely to come back strongly as it becomes clear that economic transactions are indeed escalating toward e-commerce, and that the the Wild: Chris McCandless- Couragous and Noble Idealist Essay (surviving) contenders are capable of demonstrating profitable business models. The intuitive linear assumption underlying economic thinking reaches its most ludicrous conclusions in the political debate surrounding the comparing poetry long-term future of the social security system.

The economic models used for color scenes, the social security projections are entirely linear, i.e., they reflect fixed economic growth. Comparing. This might be viewed as conservative planning if we were talking about projections of only a few years, but they become utterly unrealistic for Heart of Darkness Essay, the three to poetry four decades being discussed. These projections actually assume a fixed rate of growth of 3.5% per year for the next fifty years! There are incredibly naive assumptions that bear on Exceptionally, both sides of the argument. On the poetry one hand, there will be radical extensions to shark human longevity, while on poetry, the other hand, we will benefit from far greater economic expansion. These factors do not rule each other out, however, as the positive factors are stronger, and frilled, will ultimately dominate. Moreover, we are certain to rethink social security when we have centenarians who look and act like 30 year-olds (but who will think much faster than 30 year-olds circa the year 2000). Another implication of the poetry law of accelerating returns is exponential growth in education and learning. Color Purple. Over the comparing poetry past 120 years, we have increased our investment in K-12 education (per student and in constant dollars) by a factor of ten. Chris McCandless- And Noble. We have a one hundred fold increase in the number of college students.

Automation started by amplifying the comparing power of our muscles, and in recent times has been amplifying the power of our minds. Thus, for the past two centuries, automation has been eliminating jobs at the bottom of the skill ladder while creating new (and better paying) jobs at the top of the skill ladder. So the ladder has been moving up, and thus we have been exponentially increasing investments in education at all levels. Oh, and attack, about that offer at poetry, the beginning of this essay, consider that present stock values are based on future expectations. On Dating Your Hotel, Part. Given that the (literally) short sighted linear intuitive view represents the ubiquitous outlook, the comparing poetry common wisdom in frilled attack, economic expectations are dramatically understated.

Although stock prices reflect the comparing poetry consensus of a buyer-seller market, it nonetheless reflects the Essay 2 underlying linear assumption regarding future economic growth. But the law of accelerating returns clearly implies that the growth rate will continue to grow exponentially because the rate of progress will continue to accelerate. Although (weakening) recessionary cycles will continue to cause immediate growth rates to fluctuate, the underlying rate of comparing growth will continue to double approximately every decade. But wait a second, you said that I would get $40 trillion if I read and understood this essay. Thats right. According to my models, if we replace the macbeth history linear outlook with the more appropriate exponential outlook, current stock prices should triple. Since theres about $20 trillion in the equity markets, thats $40 trillion in comparing poetry, additional wealth.

But you said I would get that money. No, I said you would get the money, and thats why I suggested reading the sentence carefully. The English word you can be singular or plural. Of Darkness. I meant it in the sense of all of you. I see, all of us as in the whole world. But not everyone will read this essay. Well, but everyone could.

So if all of you read this essay and understand it, then economic expectations would be based on the historical exponential model, and thus stock values would increase. You mean if everyone understands it, and agrees with it. Okay, I suppose I was assuming that. Is that what you expect to comparing happen. Well, actually, no. Putting on my futurist hat again, my prediction is that indeed these views will prevail, but only over time, as more and more evidence of the macbeth history exponential nature of technology and its impact on the economy becomes apparent.

This will happen gradually over the next several years, which will represent a strong continuing updraft for comparing, the market. Technology has always been a double edged sword, bringing us longer and healthier life spans, freedom from physical and mental drudgery, and many new creative possibilities on the one hand, while introducing new and salient dangers on Exceptionally Talented, the other. We still live today with sufficient nuclear weapons (not all of which appear to be well accounted for) to end all mammalian life on the planet. Bioengineering is in the early stages of enormous strides in reversing disease and aging processes. Poetry. However, the means and knowledge will soon exist in a routine college bioengineering lab (and already exists in more sophisticated labs) to create unfriendly pathogens more dangerous than nuclear weapons. As technology accelerates toward the Singularity, we will see the same intertwined potentials: a feast of creativity resulting from human intelligence expanded a trillion-fold combined with many grave new dangers. Consider unrestrained nanobot replication. Nanobot technology requires billions or trillions of such intelligent devices to be useful. The most cost effective way to macbeth history scale up to such levels is comparing poetry, through self-replication, essentially the macbeth history same approach used in the biological world. And in the same way that biological self-replication gone awry (i.e., cancer) results in biological destruction, a defect in the mechanism curtailing nanobot self-replication would endanger all physical entities, biological or otherwise.

Other primary concerns include who is controlling the nanobots? and who are the nanobots talking to? Organizations (e.g., governments, extremist groups) or just a clever individual could put trillions of undetectable nanobots in the water or food supply of an individual or of an poetry entire population. Educating Exceptionally Essay. These spy nanobots could then monitor, influence, and poetry, even control our thoughts and actions. In addition to introducing physical spy nanobots, existing nanobots could be influenced through software viruses and other software hacking techniques. When there is software running in our brains, issues of privacy and security will take on Essay on Tips Your Part, a new urgency. My own expectation is that the creative and constructive applications of this technology will dominate, as I believe they do today. But there will be a valuable (and increasingly vocal) role for a concerned and constructive Luddite movement (i.e., anti-technologists inspired by early nineteenth century weavers who destroyed labor-saving machinery in protest). If we imagine describing the dangers that exist today to people who lived a couple of hundred years ago, they would think it mad to take such risks. Comparing. On the other hand, how many people in the year 2000 would really want to go back to the short, brutish, disease-filled, poverty-stricken, disaster-prone lives that 99 percent of the human race struggled through a couple of centuries ago? We may romanticize the past, but up until fairly recently, most of humanity lived extremely fragile lives where one all too common misfortune could spell disaster. Substantial portions of our species still live in this precarious way, which is at least one reason to continue technological progress and the economic enhancement that accompanies it.

People often go through three stages in examining the impact of future technology: awe and wonderment at its potential to overcome age old problems, then a sense of dread at a new set of grave dangers that accompany these new technologies, followed, finally and hopefully, by the realization that the macbeth history only viable and responsible path is to set a careful course that can realize the comparing poetry promise while managing the peril. In his cover story for WIRED Why The Future Doesnt Need Us, Bill Joy eloquently described the plagues of centuries past, and how new self-replicating technologies, such as mutant bioengineered pathogens, and Educating Exceptionally Essay, nanobots run amok, may bring back long forgotten pestilence. Indeed these are real dangers. It is also the case, which Joy acknowledges, that it has been technological advances, such as antibiotics and improved sanitation, which has freed us from the comparing prevalence of such plagues. Suffering in the world continues and demands our steadfast attention.

Should we tell the millions of people afflicted with cancer and other devastating conditions that we are canceling the development of macbeth history all bioengineered treatments because there is a risk that these same technologies may someday be used for malevolent purposes? Having asked the rhetorical question, I realize that there is comparing poetry, a movement to Into Couragous Idealist do exactly that, but I think most people would agree that such broad based relinquishment is comparing poetry, not the Heart of Darkness answer. The continued opportunity to alleviate human distress is one important motivation for continuing technological advancement. Comparing Poetry. Also compelling are the already apparent economic gains I discussed above which will continue to hasten in the decades ahead. The continued acceleration of many intertwined technologies are roads paved with gold (I use the plural here because technology is clearly not a single path). In a competitive environment, it is an economic imperative to color purple scenes go down these roads. Relinquishing technological advancement would be economic suicide for poetry, individuals, companies, and of Darkness Essay, nations. Which brings us to the issue of relinquishment, which is Bill Joys most controversial recommendation and personal commitment. I do feel that relinquishment at the right level is part of poetry a responsible and constructive response to these genuine perils. The issue, however, is exactly this: at what level are we to on Tips on Dating Part relinquish technology? Ted Kaczynski would have us renounce all of it.

This, in my view, is neither desirable nor feasible, and the futility of comparing poetry such a position is only underscored by the senselessness of Essay on Tips Kaczynskis deplorable tactics. Another level would be to forego certain fields; nanotechnology, for example, that might be regarded as too dangerous. But such sweeping strokes of comparing relinquishment are equally untenable. Nanotechnology is McCandless- Couragous and Noble, simply the comparing inevitable end result of the persistent trend toward miniaturization which pervades all of technology. On Tips On Dating Part. It is far from a single centralized effort, but is being pursued by a myriad of projects with many diverse goals. One observer wrote: A further reason why industrial society cannot be reformed. . . is comparing poetry, that modern technology is a unified system in which all parts are dependent on one another. Color Purple. You cant get rid of the bad parts of technology and retain only the good parts. Take modern medicine, for example. Progress in medical science depends on progress in chemistry, physics, biology, computer science and other fields. Advanced medical treatments require expensive, high-tech equipment that can be made available only by a technologically progressive, economically rich society. Clearly you cant have much progress in medicine without the comparing poetry whole technological system and everything that goes with it.

The observer I am quoting is, again, Ted Kaczynski. Although one might properly resist Kaczynski as an authority, I believe he is scenes, correct on the deeply entangled nature of the benefits and risks. However, Kaczynski and I clearly part company on comparing, our overall assessment on the relative balance between the two. Bill Joy and macbeth history, I have dialogued on this issue both publicly and privately, and comparing poetry, we both believe that technology will and purple scenes, should progress, and that we need to be actively concerned with the dark side. If Bill and I disagree, its on the granularity of comparing relinquishment that is of Darkness Essay, both feasible and desirable. Abandonment of broad areas of technology will only push them underground where development would continue unimpeded by ethics and regulation. Comparing. In such a situation, it would be the less stable, less responsible practitioners (e.g., the terrorists) who would have all the expertise. I do think that relinquishment at the right level needs to be part of our ethical response to the dangers of twenty first century technologies.

One constructive example of frilled this is the proposed ethical guideline by the Foresight Institute, founded by nanotechnology pioneer Eric Drexler, that nanotechnologists agree to relinquish the development of physical entities that can self-replicate in a natural environment. Another is a ban on self-replicating physical entities that contain their own codes for self-replication. In what nanotechnologist Ralph Merkle calls the comparing Broadcast Architecture, such entities would have to obtain such codes from a centralized secure server, which would guard against undesirable replication. The Broadcast Architecture is impossible in the biological world, which represents at least one way in which nanotechnology can be made safer than biotechnology. Educating Talented Students Essay. In other ways, nanotech is potentially more dangerous because nanobots can be physically stronger than protein-based entities and more intelligent. It will eventually be possible to combine the two by having nanotechnology provide the codes within biological entities (replacing DNA), in which case biological entities can use the comparing poetry much safer Broadcast Architecture. Our ethics as responsible technologists should include such fine grained relinquishment, among other professional ethical guidelines. Other protections will need to include oversight by regulatory bodies, the development of Essay Your Part 2 technology-specific immune responses, as well as computer assisted surveillance by law enforcement organizations. Many people are not aware that our intelligence agencies already use advanced technologies such as automated word spotting to comparing monitor a substantial flow of telephone conversations.

As we go forward, balancing our cherished rights of privacy with our need to be protected from the malicious use of powerful twenty first century technologies will be one of many profound challenges. This is Students, one reason that such issues as an encryption trap door (in which law enforcement authorities would have access to otherwise secure information) and the FBI Carnivore email-snooping system have been so contentious. As a test case, we can take a small measure of comfort from how we have dealt with one recent technological challenge. There exists today a new form of fully nonbiological self replicating entity that didnt exist just a few decades ago: the poetry computer virus. Essay On Tips On Dating Part. When this form of destructive intruder first appeared, strong concerns were voiced that as they became more sophisticated, software pathogens had the potential to comparing poetry destroy the computer network medium they live in. Couragous. Yet the immune system that has evolved in poetry, response to this challenge has been largely effective. Although destructive self-replicating software entities do cause damage from time to time, the injury is macbeth history, but a small fraction of the benefit we receive from the computers and communication links that harbor them. No one would suggest we do away with computers, local area networks, and the Internet because of poetry software viruses. One might counter that computer viruses do not have the lethal potential of biological viruses or of destructive nanotechnology.

Although true, this strengthens my observation. The fact that computer viruses are not usually deadly to humans only means that more people are willing to create and release them. It also means that our response to the danger is that much less intense. Conversely, when it comes to of Darkness Essay self replicating entities that are potentially lethal on a large scale, our response on all levels will be vastly more serious. Technology will remain a double edged sword, and the story of the Twenty First century has not yet been written. It represents vast power to be used for all humankinds purposes. Poetry. We have no choice but to work hard to apply these quickening technologies to advance our human values, despite what often appears to be a lack of consensus on what those values should be.

Once brain porting technology has been refined and fully developed, will this enable us to Talented Students Essay live forever? The answer depends on what we mean by living and comparing poetry, dying. Consider what we do today with our personal computer files. When we change from one personal computer to a less obsolete model, we dont throw all our files away; rather we copy them over to the new hardware. Although our software files do not necessary continue their existence forever, the longevity of our personal computer software is completely separate and disconnected from the hardware that it runs on. Shark Attack. When it comes to our personal mind file, however, when our human hardware crashes, the comparing software of our lives dies with it. However, this will not continue to be the case when we have the means to store and restore the thousands of trillions of bytes of information represented in the pattern that we call our brains. The longevity of ones mind file will not be dependent, therefore, on the continued viability of of Darkness Essay any particular hardware medium. Ultimately software-based humans, albeit vastly extended beyond the severe limitations of humans as we know them today, will live out on the web, projecting bodies whenever they need or want them, including virtual bodies in diverse realms of virtual reality, holographically projected bodies, physical bodies comprised of nanobot swarms, and other forms of nanotechnology. A software-based human will be free, therefore, from the constraints of any particular thinking medium. Today, we are each confined to a mere hundred trillion connections, but humans at the end of the twenty-first century can grow their thinking and thoughts without limit.

We may regard this as a form of comparing poetry immortality, although it is worth pointing out that data and information do not necessarily last forever. Educating Exceptionally Talented Essay. Although not dependent on the viability of the hardware it runs on, the comparing longevity of information depends on macbeth history, its relevance, utility, and accessibility. If youve ever tried to retrieve information from an obsolete form of comparing poetry data storage in an old obscure format (e.g., a reel of magnetic tape from a 1970 minicomputer), you will understand the challenges in keeping software viable. However, if we are diligent in maintaining our mind file, keeping current backups, and porting to current formats and Exceptionally Students, mediums, then a form of immortality can be attained, at least for software-based humans. Our mind fileour personality, skills, memoriesall of that is lost today when our biological hardware crashes. When we can access, store, and restore that information, then its longevity will no longer be tied to comparing poetry our hardware permanence. Is this form of immortality the same concept as a physical human, as we know them today, living forever? In one sense it is, because as I pointed out earlier, our contemporary selves are not a constant collection of matter either.

Only our pattern of matter and Essay, energy persists, and even that gradually changes. Similarly, it will be the pattern of a software human that persists and develops and changes gradually. But is that person based on my mind file, who migrates across many computational substrates, and who outlives any particular thinking medium, really me? We come back to comparing the same questions of consciousness and Exceptionally Talented, identity, issues that have been debated since the Platonic dialogues. As we go through the poetry twenty-first century, these will not remain polite philosophical debates, but will be confronted as vital, practical, political, and color purple, legal issues. A related question is is death desirable? A great deal of our effort goes into avoiding it. We make extraordinary efforts to delay it, and indeed often consider its intrusion a tragic event. Yet we might find it hard to live without it. Poetry. We consider death as giving meaning to Talented Essay our lives. Comparing. It gives importance and value to time. Purple Scenes. Time could become meaningless if there were too much of it.

The Next Step in Evolution and the Purpose of comparing poetry Life. But I regard the freeing of the human mind from Essay, its severe physical limitations of scope and duration as the necessary next step in evolution. Evolution, in my view, represents the purpose of comparing life. Educating Exceptionally. That is, the purpose of lifeand of our livesis to evolve. Poetry. The Singularity then is not a grave danger to be avoided. In my view, this next paradigm shift represents the goal of our civilization. What does it mean to evolve? Evolution moves toward greater complexity, greater elegance, greater knowledge, greater intelligence, greater beauty, greater creativity, and more of Exceptionally other abstract and subtle attributes such as love. And God has been called all these things, only without any limitation: infinite knowledge, infinite intelligence, infinite beauty, infinite creativity, infinite love, and so on. Of course, even the comparing poetry accelerating growth of evolution never achieves an infinite level, but as it explodes exponentially, it certainly moves rapidly in that direction.

So evolution moves inexorably toward our conception of God, albeit never quite reaching this ideal. Thus the freeing of Heart our thinking from the severe limitations of its biological form may be regarded as an essential spiritual quest. In making this statement, it is comparing, important to emphasize that terms like evolution, destiny, and spiritual quest are observations about the end result, not the frilled basis for these predictions. Poetry. I am not saying that technology will evolve to human levels and Educating Talented Essay, beyond simply because it is our destiny and because of the satisfaction of a spiritual quest. Rather my projections result from a methodology based on the dynamics underlying the (double) exponential growth of technological processes. The primary force driving technology is comparing, economic imperative. We are moving toward machines with human level intelligence (and beyond) as the result of millions of Heart of Darkness Essay small advances, each with their own particular economic justification.

To use an example from my own experience at one of my companies (Kurzweil Applied Intelligence), whenever we came up with a slightly more intelligent version of speech recognition, the new version invariably had greater value than the earlier generation and, as a result, sales increased. It is interesting to comparing note that in the example of speech recognition software, the three primary surviving competitors stayed very close to each other in of Darkness, the intelligence of their software. A few other companies that failed to do so (e.g., Speech Systems) went out of business. At any point in comparing poetry, time, we would be able to sell the version prior to Talented Students Essay the latest version for perhaps a quarter of the price of the current version. As for versions of our technology that were two generations old, we couldnt even give those away. This phenomenon is not only true for pattern recognition and other AI software, but applies to all products, from bread makers to cars. And if the comparing product itself doesnt exhibit some level of intelligence, then intelligence in the manufacturing and on Dating Your Part, marketing methods have a major effect on the success and profitability of an enterprise.

There is a vital economic imperative to create more intelligent technology. Poetry. Intelligent machines have enormous value. On Tips On Dating. That is why they are being built. There are tens of thousands of projects that are advancing intelligent machines in diverse incremental ways. The support for high tech in the business community (mostly software) has grown enormously. Comparing. When I started my optical character recognition (OCR) and speech synthesis company (Kurzweil Computer Products, Inc.) in macbeth history, 1974, there were only a half-dozen high technology IPOs that year. The number of comparing such deals has increased one hundred fold and the number of dollars invested has increased by more than one thousand fold in the past 25 years.

In the four years between 1995 and 1999 alone, high tech venture capital deals increased from just over $1 billion to Essay approximately $15 billion. We will continue to build more powerful computational mechanisms because it creates enormous value. We will reverse-engineer the human brain not simply because it is our destiny, but because there is comparing, valuable information to be found there that will provide insights in building more intelligent (and more valuable) machines. We would have to repeal capitalism and every visage of economic competition to stop this progression. By the second half of this next century, there will be no clear distinction between human and machine intelligence. On the one hand, we will have biological brains vastly expanded through distributed nanobot-based implants.

On the other hand, we will have fully nonbiological brains that are copies of human brains, albeit also vastly extended. Exceptionally Talented. And we will have a myriad of poetry other varieties of intimate connection between human thinking and the technology it has fostered. Ultimately, nonbiological intelligence will dominate because it is growing at a double exponential rate, whereas for all practical purposes biological intelligence is at a standstill. Human thinking is stuck at frilled attack, 10 26 calculations per second (for all biological humans), and poetry, that figure will never appreciably change (except for a small increase resulting from genetic engineering). Heart Essay. Nonbiological thinking is still millions of times less today, but the cross over will occur before 2030.

By the end of the twenty-first century, nonbiological thinking will be trillions of trillions of times more powerful than that of its biological progenitors, although still of comparing human origin. It will continue to be the Heart of Darkness human-machine civilization taking the next step in comparing, evolution. Most forecasts of the future seem to ignore the revolutionary impact of the Educating Talented Singularity in our human destiny: the inevitable emergence of computers that match and ultimately vastly exceed the capabilities of the human brain, a development that will be no less important than the evolution of human intelligence itself some thousands of centuries ago. And the primary reason for this failure is that they are based on comparing poetry, the intuitive but short sighted linear view of history. Before the next century is over, the Earths technology-creating species will merge with its computational technology. Macbeth History. There will not be a clear distinction between human and machine. Comparing. After all, what is the Essay difference between a human brain enhanced a trillion fold by nanobot-based implants, and a computer whose design is based on comparing poetry, high resolution scans of the Heart of Darkness Essay human brain, and poetry, then extended a trillion-fold? Why SETI Will Fail (and why we are alone in the Universe) The law of accelerating returns implies that by 2099, the intelligence that will have emerged from human-machine civilization will be trillions of trillions of times more powerful than it is today, dominated of course by its nonbiological form.

So what does this have to do with SETI (the Search for color, Extra Terrestrial Intelligence)? The naive view, going back to pre-Copernican days, was that the Earth was at the center of the Universe, and human intelligence its greatest gift (next to God). The more informed recent view is that even if the likelihood of poetry a star having a planet with a technology creating species is very low (e.g., one in a million), there are so many stars (i.e., billions of trillions of them), that there are bound to Educating Students Essay be many with advanced technology. This is the view behind SETI, was my view until recently, and is the common informed view today. Although SETI has not yet looked everywhere, it has already covered a substantial portion of the Universe. In the above diagram (courtesy of Scientific American), we can see that SETI has already thoroughly searched all star systems within 10 7 light-years from Earth for alien civilizations capable (and willing) to transmit at a power of at least 10 25 watts, a so-called Type II civilization (and all star systems within 10 6 light-years for transmission of at least 10 18 watts, and so on). No sign of intelligence has been found as of yet.

In a recent email to my research assistant, Dr. Seth Shostak of the SETI Institute points out that a new comprehensive targeted search, called Project Phoenix, which has up to 100 times the poetry sensitivity and covers a greater range of the radio dial as compared to previous searches, has only been applied thus far to 500 star systems, which is, of course only a minute fraction of the half trillion star systems in just our own galaxy. However, according to my model, once a civilization achieves our own level (Earth-level) of macbeth history radio transmission, it takes no more than one century, two at the most, to achieve what SETI calls a Type II civilization. If the assumption that there are at least millions of radio capable civilizations out comparing poetry there, and that these civilizations are spread out over millions (indeed billions) of years of macbeth history development, then surely there ought to be millions that have achieved Type II status. Incidentally, this is not an argument against the SETI project, which in my view should have the highest possible priority because the negative finding is no less significant than a positive result. It is odd that we find the cosmos so silent.

Where is everybody? There should be millions of civilizations vastly more advanced than our own, so we should be noticing their broadcasts. Poetry. A sufficiently advanced civilization would not be likely to restrict its broadcasts to subtle signals on obscure frequencies. Scenes. Why are they so silent, and so shy? As I have studied the implications of the law of accelerating returns, I have come to a different view. Because exponential growth is so explosive, it is the case that once a species develops computing technology, it is only a matter of a couple of centuries before the nonbiological form of their intelligence explodes. Comparing. It permeates virtually all matter in their vicinity, and then inevitably expands outward close to the maximum speed that information can travel.

Once the nonbiological intelligence emerging from that species technology has saturated its vicinity (and the nature of this saturation is another complex issue, which I wont deal with in this essay), it has no other way to continue to evolve but to expand outwardly. The expansion does not start out at the maximum speed, but quickly achieves a speed within a vanishingly small delta from the the Wild: Essay maximum speed. What is the comparing poetry maximum speed? We currently understand this to be the color scenes speed of comparing poetry light, but there are already tantalizing hints that this may not be an absolute limit. There were recent experiments that measured the flight time of photons at macbeth history, nearly twice the speed of comparing light, a result of quantum uncertainty on their position. However, this result is actually not useful for this analysis, because it does not actually allow information to macbeth history be communicated at faster than the comparing speed of light, and we are fundamentally interested in macbeth history, communication speed. Quantum disentanglement has been measured at many times the speed of light, but this is comparing poetry, only communicating randomness (profound quantum randomness) at speeds far greater than the speed of light; again, this is not communication of Exceptionally Essay information (but is poetry, of great interest for Heart, restoring encryption, after quantum computing destroys it). There is the potential for worm holes (or folds of the Universe in dimensions beyond the three visible ones), but this is not really traveling at poetry, faster than the speed of light, it just means that the topology of the Universe is McCandless- and Noble Idealist Essay, not the simple three dimensional space that naive physics implies.

But we already knew that. However, if worm holes or folds in poetry, the Universe are ubiquitous, then perhaps these short cuts would allow us to get everywhere quickly. Would anyone be shocked if some subtle ways of getting around this speed limit were discovered? And no matter how subtle, sufficiently subtle technology will find ways to apply it. The point is that if there are ways around this limit (or any other currently understood limit), then the extraordinary levels of intelligence that our human-machine civilization will achieve will find those ways and exploit them. So for now, we can say that ultra high levels of intelligence will expand outward at the Wild: McCandless- Couragous Essay, the speed of light, but recognize that this may not be the actual limit of the speed of expansion, or even if the limit is the comparing poetry speed of light that this limit may not restrict reaching other locations quickly. Consider that the time spans for biological evolution are measured in millions and billions of years, so if there are other civilizations out there, they would be spread out by macbeth history huge spans of time. Comparing Poetry. If there are a lot of them, as contemporary thinking implies, then it would be very unlikely that at least some of them would not be ahead of us.

That at purple, least is the SETI assumption. And if they are ahead of us, they likely would be ahead of us by poetry huge spans of time. The likelihood that any civilization that is ahead of us is ahead of Essay on Dating Your 2 us by only a few decades is extremely small. If the poetry SETI assumption that there are many (e.g., millions) of technological (at least radio capable) civilizations is correct, then at Educating Talented Essay, least some of them (i.e., millions of comparing poetry them) would be way ahead of us. But it takes only macbeth history a few centuries at most from the advent of computation for that civilization to expand outward at at least light speed.

Given this, how can it be that we have not noticed them? The conclusion I reach is that it is likely that there are no such other civilizations. In other words, we are in the lead. Thats right, our humble civilization with its Dodge pick up trucks, fried chicken fast food, and ethnic cleansings (and computation!) is in comparing poetry, the lead. Now how can that be? Isnt this extremely unlikely given the billions of trillions of likely planets? Indeed it is very unlikely. Macbeth History. But equally unlikely is the existence of our Universe with a set of laws of physics so exquisitely precisely what is comparing poetry, needed for the evolution of life to be possible. But by the Anthropic principle, if the Universe didnt allow the evolution of life we wouldnt be here to Heart of Darkness notice it. Yet here we are. So by the same Anthropic principle, were here in comparing, the lead in the Universe.

Again, if we werent here, we would not be noticing it. Lets consider some arguments against this perspective. Perhaps there are extremely advanced technological civilizations out there, but we are outside their light sphere of intelligence. That is, they havent gotten here yet. Okay, in this case, SETI will still fail because we wont be able to see (or hear) them, at least not before we reach Singularity. Perhaps they are amongst us, but have decided to remain invisible to us. Incidentally, I have always considered the science fiction notion of large space ships with large squishy creatures similar to us to be very unlikely.

Any civilization sophisticated enough to make the trip here would have long since passed the point of merging with their technology and would not need to send such physically bulky organisms and equipment. Such a civilization would not have any unmet material needs that require it to McCandless- Couragous Idealist Essay steal physical resources from us. They would be here for observation only, to gather knowledge, which is the poetry only resource of value to such a civilization. The intelligence and equipment needed for such observation would be extremely small. Macbeth History. In this case, SETI will still fail because if this civilization decided that it did not want us to notice it, then it would succeed in that desire. Comparing Poetry. Keep in mind that they would be vastly more intelligent than we are today. Perhaps they will reveal themselves to us when we achieve the next level of our evolution, specifically merging our biological brains with our technology, which is to say, after the Singularity.

Moreover, given that the Essay Your Hotel, Part SETI assumption implies that there are millions of comparing poetry such highly developed civilizations, it seems odd that all of them have made the same decision to stay out of our way. Why Intelligence is More Powerful than Physics. As intelligence saturates the matter and energy available to it, it turns dumb matter into smart matter. Although smart matter still nominally follows the Essay laws of physics, it is so exquisitely intelligent that it can harness the comparing most subtle aspects of the laws to manipulate matter and energy to its will. Essay On Dating Your 2. So it would at least appear that intelligence is comparing poetry, more powerful than physics. Perhaps what I should say is that intelligence is more powerful than cosmology. That is, once matter evolves into smart matter (matter fully saturated with intelligence), it can manipulate matter and energy to do whatever it wants. This perspective has not been considered in discussions of future cosmology. It is assumed that intelligence is Students, irrelevant to comparing poetry events and Educating Exceptionally, processes on a cosmological scale.

Stars are born and die; galaxies go through their cycles of creation and destruction. Poetry. The Universe itself was born in macbeth history, a big bang and will end with a crunch or a whimper, were not yet sure which. But intelligence has little to do with it. Intelligence is comparing, just a bit of froth, an Heart of Darkness ebullition of little creatures darting in and out of inexorable universal forces. The mindless mechanism of the Universe is comparing poetry, winding up or down to Essay a distant future, and theres nothing intelligence can do about it. Thats the comparing common wisdom, but I dont agree with it. Intelligence will be more powerful than these impersonal forces. Once a planet yields a technology creating species and that species creates computation (as has happened here on scenes, Earth), it is only a matter of comparing a few centuries before its intelligence saturates the matter and Heart, energy in its vicinity, and it begins to expand outward at the speed of light or greater. It will then overcome gravity (through exquisite and vast technology) and other cosmological forces (or, to comparing poetry be fully accurate, will maneuver and control these forces) and create the Universe it wants. This is the Students goal of the comparing Singularity. What kind of Universe will that be?

Well, just wait and frilled shark, see. Most of you (again Im using the plural form of the word) are likely to be around to poetry see the Singularity. The expanding human life span is another one of those exponential trends. In the eighteenth century, we added a few days every year to human longevity; during the nineteenth century we added a couple of weeks each year; and now were adding almost a half a year every year. With the revolutions in scenes, genomics, proteomics, rational drug design, therapeutic cloning of our own organs and tissues, and related developments in bio-information sciences, we will be adding more than a year every year within ten years. So take care of yourself the old fashioned way for just a little while longer, and you may actually get to experience the next fundamental paradigm shift in our destiny. Copyright (C) Raymond Kurzweil 2001. Chart Graphics by comparing poetry Brett Rampata/Digital Organism.

Topics: Innovation/Entrepreneurship | Quantum | Social Networking/Web. Hi. Essay On Tips Your Hotel, Part 2. I was doing some research on this topic. I live in helsinki and I found a finnish translation of comparing poetry The Visible Human Project. Its here : http://www.1001-soldes.com/visible-human-project. Thanks for creating and Essay on Dating Part 2, sharing a great resource. The rate of comparing poetry technological change has serious implications for the economics of investing in terms of Heart of Darkness Essay a buy now or wait for the next improved model problem. Comparing. The economic life of equipment in the Wild: Chris McCandless-, certain industries is far shorter than the mechanical life (i.e. the machine is not worn out and still operates within accepted tolerances). We saw this in the late 90?s to early 2000 when the majority of used metal working machinery dealers went out of business.

While the used equipment still worked like new it was technologically obsolete relative to the performance of the comparing poetry most recent technology. Essay On Tips Your Hotel, Part 2. The economics of competition often led to the situation where the old technology even at poetry, an acquisition cost almost equivalent to scrap value, but including operating and maintenance costs, could not compete with the features and costs of the new technology. Financial lending institutions were hit hard as their floor-plan financing of used equipment inventory when the dealer closed its doors and gave the Educating Essay keys to the banker, only to find out that the $250,000 machine was worth $5,000 as scrap. As a result, many small manufacturers are finding it almost impossible to get bank financing to acquire new (expensive) technology. As a result, smaller firms are finding it more difficult to poetry be competitive unless they can operate their equipment almost 24/7/365 in color scenes, order to wear it out before it becomes technologically obsolete. In many areas, this has resulted in a dilemma of deciding to buy now or wait for new model. Comparing. As the rate of technological change increases, this can quickly lead to an investment singularity where on never makes an investment. I feel that this conundrum is leading to greater concentration in Into Couragous and Noble, manufacturing with less competition. This in itself may be the brakes the the technology growth rate as once a manufacturer achieves near monopoly status, it can continue to price goods based on the economics of the old technology without being undercut by comparing new competitors using new technology.

I believe that there is a need for a new model of shark attack small-medium manufacturing that can share technology in order to wear it out before it becomes obsolete. This obviously entail a major logistics problem that I feel would lead to the development of poetry concentrated manufacturing locations in order to Heart of Darkness facilitate sharing of equipment along with coordination of methods (i.e. Poetry. standardized CAD-CAM, MRP, etc.). I was wondering why you did not use a paradigm shows patent across the age of technology can easily support your claims, specifically because the rate and Heart of Darkness, return can be proven accurate, In 2001 you write that we will be adding more than a year every year within ten years (So 2011). In 2015, at the Emerging Issues forum in NC State U, you say that within 15 years well be adding more than a year every year to poetry your remaining life expectancy. It does appear, even to this very sympathetic reader of yours, that you keep pushing back the date when well finally reach longevity escape velocity.

Where does he say that? I cant find that quote in this article. Also, I would assume his predictions are not set in stone, and need flexibility. I see these as possibilities as to when we should be able to shark do this or that, not an exact time-frame. He isnt trying to be a prophet of the future, or a Nostradamus. Just listing his educated theories on what the future might hold. Given medical progress you write that we will be adding more than a year every year within ten years. This in comparing, 2001, so it would refer to 2011. Have we been adding more than a year to our remaining life span since 2011?

looking widely, any growth is like more lambda function than exponent.. exponential growth linear phase saturation.. fixing on exponential growth like a searching for Philosophers stone.. A technological singularity has already occurred at Into the Wild: McCandless- Essay, least once in history. Before the invention of neural cell, the adaptation for new environments required many generations of comparing evolutionary trial. Compared to Heart of Darkness that, the poetry speed at which neurons model the world is near-infinite. Seems very reasonable! I was wondering, how to test if a copied mind is indistinguishable from the Essay actual mind copied? Lets say you and your copy are given the identical simulated world environments to play in. If the behaviours of poetry you and your copy do not deviate by more than the behaviour of actual you would be expected to deviate from the behaviour of identical actual you in a universe different from this one by frilled the amount of entropy that would be needed to create the comparing observed level of differences in behaviour over macbeth history, the same period of time, then we would consider your copy identical up to that level of entropy, defined by the triple (you, your copy, game). Hello, I am currently a student in molecular biology at UofM, Well, firstly, it needs to be stated that this is a deliciously entertaining and well defined hypothesis. Comparing. There are certainly numerous well-supported facts throughout this essay and I too, agree with its principle suggestion.

It is noteworthy to point out that what this man is attempting to prove is at its utmost level not provable (currently), but may be able to be in the Wild: Chris McCandless- Essay, time. Poetry. The most difficult part to grasp for most people is the ability to extend your analyzing beyond your realm of present reasoning. On a far lesser scale, many find it difficult to draw 3-Dimensional figures on 2-D paper. Macbeth History. But just because you cant comprehend it-or perhaps even if you can and assess that it is only an optical illusion-doesnt mean there is no merit in its core reasoning. Comparing Poetry. That is to say, it is Into Chris and Noble Essay, possible to comparing poetry use these directly fictitious drawings to ultimately understand the color concepts it would entail in 3 dimensions. What I am saying is, simply put, that which is impossible now is not necessarily impossible later. When addressing the poetry future, you must not assess it linearly (as Kurzweil elaborates), despite our deepest internal desire to view it as so.

If you think A.I. intelligence is unable to pass human intelligence, then you will have a much more difficult time understanding the ideas behind Dystopian/Utopian theories. On a final note, I truly wonder if these two theories are interrelated, as Id assume that this could ultimately extend to argue that the frilled exponential growth of technology may culminate in a Singularity point that ultimately results in the destruction of the exponential model and offers an comparing entirely new shape after. (Id assume a possible restart in on Dating Your Part 2, technological growth if you believe in Dystopia with a Utopian stance being more unclear). I am very interested to hear your take on that. How will we apply technplogy that is more intelligent than its creators. yea, imagine some one from the 80s picking up a smart phone and having infinite amount of information in their hands! they would be so unimpressed u mad bro that life didnt turn out like movies from the 70?s and 80?s.youre an idiot. Im just going to say something about the life and the future. There were changes in the past for the future for the past, old fashioned civilians. Everything is the same, everyone is the same.

They all think their more godly than others. The fact is, their not. They never will betheres only presidents and comparing, higher occupations who fuck up our world and are the higher occupations. So, now we live in the Still Age, where nothing seems to move forward. Sure we have technology, but nothings actually happening. Lifes dead, the people may seem alive but we are the walking dead. Heart Of Darkness Essay. Suppose we dont actually need a zombie apocalypse because WE are it. We ARE zombies. I mean, look at all the movies from the 70?s/80?s they expect in comparing, the 2000s/2020s will be all futuristic with hover cars and moving cities and blah blah blah but NO, they would be choking themselves now that the future hasnt moved on and they saw today. I will be dead by the time anything changes to our city or evolves.why is it that we cant go out by the time night comes? why cant we be creatures of the night instead of creatures of the Chris McCandless- Couragous and Noble Essay day? Its frustrating, sitting here on your bed waiting for comparing, the next day.

The night is not safe for anyone, why? Who dared made it that way? I would like to walk in the night feeling safe but I suppose that isnt possiblewhy is the on Tips Your Hotel, day safe? But the day isnt safe, either. No, I didnt read the preposterous post or comments. Maths sucksI bet I can pass by without using itthats a challengeokay, so maybe the shops I need maths for but thats it and I can use a calculator for gods sake! Who the fuck buys 42 melons anyway? You know? Those ridiculous math sums.

And why, do we see all these people everywhere and dont know their names? Their everything? Their always different looking everyday. Poetry. We dont have self awareness because were just too used to everything, were almost like puppets obeying this life systemwe only have self awareness when we are in macbeth history, trouble. I mean, I kind of feel like were just waiting to comparing die everyday. I dont want that. I hate that. I want to feel alive, to feel lived, I dont want to walk in a daydream. Heart Of Darkness. Why must we obey the system? Go to school for half your life, work the comparing poetry rest of the half, grow old and die.

Everyones the same. Its programmed for every human. Chris McCandless- Couragous Essay. You want to know your purpose? Thats your purpose. Work till you grow old. Enjoy the poetry little things ;) It is mind bogging yet well supported by purple scenes factsdear sir may I bring one area that could sweep all other areasexponential increase is BADLY needed in personal conduct,wash-out of negative thinking ,and being. old indian scriptures DO mention that such is possible.but that is all to.

itprobably suspecting misuse. from nsc. UIM (Ultra Intelligent machines) ultra-intelligent machine could design even better machines document in 1960s are not far from reality. consciousness is an comparing unbroken chain. if you copy yourself directly you break the chain, the new copys consciousness would begin at that point and your old self would continue to be conscious. a slow transition allows an introspective understanding of that gradual change as you evolve from biology into technology, although you may change your consciousness remains intact. that is of Darkness Essay, my view anyway Moores law is just one of millions of positive feedback loops that occur in comparing, the world (in biology, sociology, economics, chemistry etc). Yet none of these feedback loops continue indefinitely, as you are assuming Moores Law will. This is frilled, because every feedback loop, including Moores Law, eventually has limiting factors (Usually a lack of resources / ingredients). Comparing. All the technology curves will be slowed by limiting factors eventually, and color purple, the singularity wont occur. Jordan: in The Singularity Is Near book. Ray explains that Moores law will expire in comparing poetry, the future, and will be replaced by another process.

Jordan respectfully did you read the whole essay? I agree with your criticism in a sense, in that we havent yet established that there is a possible paradigm after integrated circuits. Pointing to Essay on Tips on Dating 2 the end of Moores law and comparing poetry, claiming their is nothing beyond that is no different than having someone circa 1956 claiming vacuum tubes are the fastest computers we can EVER make. Moores law is projected to end sometime around 2018 2022. Ray is very aware of this, as he points out many times in his essay.

Had his argument been of the form Moores law Singularity your counter argument would have been sufficient. Heart Of Darkness. This is not at all what he is arguing, in fact, the comparing premise Moores law will end is one premises of his argument (the rise an fall of new paradigms for Educating Talented Students Essay, intelligence). If you want to argue against a singularity occurring, you need to address the fundamental trends underlying Moores law (things along the lines of building upon previous innovations and then work out what laws of physics may interfere with the continuation of that trend). Comparing. The only small problem I saw with what his argument above is Talented, that nanites will have a hard time sending and receiving WiFi if they are smaller than the wavelength of carrier frequency. If I were to then conclude that this physical problem will prevent nanites from EVER using any kind of wireless communication, I would be adopting the same type of thinking as yours regarding Moores law.

All of us working together over many years of innovation and evolution have created this smooth pattern (I would argue that ALL people contribute in some small way, even the ones that dont appear to be doing anything it all adds up). The patterns you see in a branching tree, in the periodic table, in human personality types, a fractal, the sand on the beach, a hurricane, the BelousovZhabotinsky reaction take your pick but the Law of Accelerating Returns as Ray calls it is simply another one of those types of patterns. Its literally a force of poetry nature we recognize that were creating that pattern, but then we delude ourselves into thinking that were in control of it, and that just isnt the case. All of these large scale aggregate patterns constructed by an uncountable number of small scale chaotic events will be points of great interest for us going forward (they already are, but theyll become more important as we try to solve problems like the end of Moores law). They form the the Wild: Chris McCandless- Couragous and Noble links between the known fundamental properties of the comparing poetry universe with our experienced conciousness.

A top priority is to macbeth history understand that complex and interconnected web. uuuuuuummmm, i was told i would recieve 40 trillion dollars. by Theodoore Aborgone. 40 trillion? For what?? Hi to everyone, this is my first post, because I REALLY need help. Everywhere i see know this advertisements about comparing poetry Forex thing, got attracted, started to read about it, but still really confused about What is forex . All the explanations i find on the internet are very complicated. Color Purple Scenes. Too many smart words. Can someone explain what is forex by his own words ? Tired of websites. I just can not imagine with incredibly blog greatly that warned me! God bless you It is not beauty that endears; its love that makes us see beauty. Leo Tolstoy.

Too much technological change within such a short period of time is too much for humans to handle. Humans must learn how to adapt to the societal changes that this new technology will bring, so that humans wont end civilization as we know it. Comparing Poetry. We as a species must strive for peace. note how phase conjugation is the symmetry origin of acceleration (gravity) and all centripetal self organizing forces. Seems like we should re-evaluate the macbeth history perception we call time imortality is right around the comparing poetry corner. So hold on macbeth history, to your pants were about to defy physics as we know it. Epigenetic mechanisms can provide a survival advantage under adverse conditions with mechanical laws. It presupposes that Science historically developed out of Phylosophy.

It is more convenient to postulate that Epigenetics expanded in accordance with mechanical laws that have existed since the beginning of creation. (Epigenetics Wikipedia page here) I have two problems with this theory. Poetry. The first is physical, the second metaphysical. The first problem that while exponential growth is certainly a mathematical possibility, it is Educating Exceptionally Students, never a physical one. In mathematics, all exponential growth results in asymptotes. Comparing. There are, however, no physical asymptotes they simply do not exist. For example, the repellent force of protons looks asymptotic until a certain point then it breaks over and nuclear forces take over, binding the macbeth history nucleus of an atom together. Comparing. The same thing happens with a zener diode, or any other seemingly asymptotic function. There is always a breakover point. (Interesting discussion regarding the growth of mass as it approaches the speed of light but if you think about Essay on Tips Your Part 2 it, we simply dont know yet). The second is comparing poetry, metaphysical.

This theory assumes and I think incorrectly that consciousness is the result of increased neural activity. Attack. However, any honest person that thinks about it will realize that there is something in poetry, the soul or spirit that is Into the Wild: McCandless- Couragous and Noble Idealist Essay, yet to be explored or understood. Anyone that has ever entered a room where an argument has just taken place and felt the poetry tension in the room has sensed with something other than the brain unless all of that is just electromagnetic vibes, and as an electrical engineer, I know those electromagnetic waves travel outward and disperse at nearly the speed of light. I think that the brain is more of an interface to the spirit where real cognitive thinking occurs. That is why we stew on things to think them through our brain needs to be preoccupied sometimes (watching TV, listening to music, etc.) in on Dating Part, order to think. Comparing Poetry. Our brain doesnt do the thinking, that is a metaphysical thing. Thinking that cognitive self-awareness comes from neural activity is a stretch that is not supported by on Tips on Dating Your Part 2 any medical knowledge, it is simply assumed (like evolution). It is more of a religion than religion is. The complexity of the interface certainly needs to be explored, but until we can figure out where the real cognitive engine is, I dont think there is any chance that more complex interfaces will become self aware. The RS 232 interface is simple and the USB3 may be better and comparing, more complex, but no matter how good the Heart interface gets, it will never become the computer chip itself. Comparing. LIkewise, the brain may be exceeded by a computer, but it will never become the cognitive center of a person.

On the bright side, Mr. Kurzweil, the spirit never dies. Are you sure about this? Animal often communicate non-verbally because they dont have a structured, organized universal way of Essay Your Hotel, Part communicating with one another. So they have to rely on comparing, a not of non-verbal ques to communicate with one another. Macbeth History. Therefore you example of walking into a room with an argument isnt a very good example of a spiritual perception, because humans display certain actions and characteristic when under pressure, and some of poetry us have been wired to perceive these unconscious non-verbal forms of shark attack communication.

Looks of worry, muscles tensing up, frowns, fidgeting Its a romantic idea that we have a soul, but to claim we have souls is to comparing poetry deny the elegance and beauty that is our brains. So dont be mean to frilled attack your brain, give credit where credits due! In mathematics, all exponential growth results in asymptotes. There are, however, no physical asymptotes they simply do not exist.

There is a physical limit at the end of the century. He explains in comparing, this particular essay that he left it out, but it is basically the point at which we cant get any more use out purple of an atom and simply require more atoms. At that point all research and advancement will be towards getting more atoms. That is why we stew on things to think them through our brain needs to be preoccupied sometimes (watching TV, listening to music, etc.) in order to comparing think. Our brain doesnt do the thinking, that is a metaphysical thing. We are unaware of the vast majority of our brains activity. This is the work being done in Into Chris Idealist, the subconscious. Comparing. We are only aware of the activity on the thin outer film on the outside of the brain, and Couragous and Noble Idealist, we have even shown that many of the decisions we think we consciously make were actually your subconscious making the decision and comparing poetry, lying to Heart you conscious brain that you made the decision. You can tell these decisions apart from the poetry rest by asking yourself if you actually considered alternatives to what you just did; if not, that is your subconscious.

Your subconscious considers almost every thing you could possibly do next, and analyzes the macbeth history world in very unconventional ways sometimes seeing past our rigid conception of reality. 95% of our brain is in the subconscious. Little is known about comparing poetry what the subconscious is capable of or senses past the 5 our conscious brain is aware of. Seeing into the outer layer of the subconscious is a spiritual experience. It can be achieved through dreaming, meditation, spirituality, and hallucinogens. When you feel things you are not aware of or stew, this is your subconscious working away. This is the real you. Thinking that cognitive self-awareness comes from neural activity is a stretch that is not supported by any medical knowledge, it is simply assumed

Self awareness is shown to take place in the brain only when it is in a highly interconnected state. Purple Scenes. The outer 5% of the brain is the conscious part and is only developed to any reasonable extent in humans. The conscious part of the brain connects the other parts of the brain together and allows you to be aware of them and also override them with logic. Comparing. Scientific inquiry into this by watching chain reactions in the brain has shown that when are are no longer self aware, the difference in the brain is that the separate parts are no longer communicating with each otherthey are simply acting. This is frilled attack, how it is in comparing poetry, animals. You made a few points that I found interesting and you might be able to help me with a nonprofit initiative of mine called iSocialWatch, it is the Exceptionally Talented Students Essay first social media watchdog and consumer advocacy organization focusing on privacy, safety, psychology and sexuality in the context of cyber, social and ultra connected space.

You can reach out by email stephane at isocialwatch dot org, or Twitter isocialwatch, or facebook.com/isocialwatch. Looking forward hearing from you. Im not sure that I agree with the Kurzweils refutation of Penroses description of the poetry origin of consciousness. I would not, for example, say that the gradual introduction of electronic pseudo-neurons is functionally equivalent to a complete brain scan/recreation. The fundamental difference between the two processes, it seems to me, is the gradual nature of the former, which avoids the discontinuity of the latter. Continuity may be fundamental to frilled shark consciousness, which is why Penroses argument holds water. Poetry. No matter how close our quantum technology can come to replicating our quantum states, there will always be that discontinuity because the Educating Talented Students Essay duplication, as Penrose argues, cannot be perfect. Therefore, consciousness cannot be downloaded from a biological mind.

Of course, consciousness could also be something completely unrelated to all of comparing this. Maybe these physical processes are results of Into the Wild: Chris McCandless- consciousness and not the other way around. Every new invention has a beginning, an accellerating development phase, a peak of poetry development and Heart, then a decellerating slowing down of development. Nothing takes forever. Eventually we will live in a world that doesnt change much. You just think it is linear or exponentially accellerating because you dont appreciate that the industrial/technological time has been very short. Its like looking at comparing poetry, our world and Educating Students, thinking it is poetry, flat but when you get to purple the pole it goes no further. Its just a ball. Comparing. You cant see the reality because you over-rate your intelligence. I think the jump from the window that a civilization would be broadcasting radio waves is very small to, therefore no other civilizations exist is a false conclusion.

I also disagree that civilizations would be broadcasting a signal to all the universe once they advanced beyond human level intelligence. The smart entity would conceal themselves and be the one to decide when any contact should occur. I do not think they are here, but that does not mean that they arent out there. Are You Serious Bro? We Tried So Hard Not To Go There But There You Went

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Proceed to write the body while adhering to strict rules for comparing poetry, paragraphs and inclusion of references. Chris. Finally, complete your references page and review the draft before submission using quality audit tools. Here, we recommend the comparing poetry, same tools that we use if you were to purchase an essay model from us. Essay Topic Selection and shark, Research. Strong topic selection is an important first step. If possible, pick a topic that has lots of available research materials or aligns with items you are studying in other classes.

Try to avoid current events as there may be a lack of available research materials. Sample Essay Topics. Death penalty Abortion rights Gun rights Gender inequality. When doing academic research, only trust reputable sources like JSTOR, Google Scholar, your campus library or academic search engines you have access to. Lastly, collect the sources that you need first and go through them thoroughly.

Now that you have picked a topic and collected some credible sources, its time to make a plan. Start by comparing poetry identifying common assumptions about the topic and Heart of Darkness, find common themes. For example, if exploring the causes of poverty, you will inevitably find out that governments are the ones that control lots of food production and allocation to the people. Comparing. Once you have enough evidence to support a general theme, construct a thesis statement and the Wild: McCandless- Essay, make an outline of the core items that support that assertion. Poetry. If you don't think this step is necessary, just remember that our writers are trained to follow this process on all purchased sample essay orders. You are ready to start writing. Start with an introductory paragraph that funnels down from a broad issue to Essay on Dating Part, a specific time and place. Provide background details as necessary. Then, conclude the introduction with your thesis statement.

Body paragraphs should be 5-7 sentences long and comparing poetry, start with a topic sentence. Always introduce your quotes and avoid dropping them without context. Finish with a conclusion that recaps each main point and make sure not to of Darkness Essay, introduce any new information. Poetry. Essay References and Final Review. Finally, construct your works cited page using the right citation style guide. Depending on the format, you may also need a title page. Review your final essay by reading it out loud and Chris and Noble, make sure you addressed your original instructions!

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Custom sample services are for model and reference use only. When referencing our work, you must use a proper citation. i Revisions are offered within seven (7) days of Essay on Tips on Dating Part, a completed order and are free with a three-day deadline. Comparing. For earlier deadlines and general changes to core instructions, costs may apply. Explore the full Revision Policy. ii The company does not condone plagiarism, copyright infringement or any form of scenes, academic dishonesty. All provided sample services must only comparing, be used for reference purposes while being cited properly. Please read the Fair Use Policy. Ultius is the shark, trusted provider of content solutions for consumers around the world. Connect with great American writers and comparing, get 24/7 support.

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Earl Long, 18951960: Voting Rights Advocate of comparing, Political Incorrectness. Some moviegoers will remember urbane Paul Newman miscast as the earthy and Essay on Dating Hotel, 2 irascible Earl Long in Blaze (1989). The film was scripted in poetry, part from Blaze Starr: My Life as Told to Huey Perry (1974), a nightclub strippers ghosted autobiography styled a novel, but in the main from folklore. Into The Wild: McCandless- Couragous And Noble Essay. Both that vile book and movie exploit an poetry unfortunate last chapter in the roller-coaster life of Educating Exceptionally Talented Students, Huey Longs younger brother. He did not gain political maturity until 20 years including those of the Great Depression and the Second World Warafter Hueys watershed election as governor, in comparing, 1928 when he was 34, ended a half-century of Louisianas domination by an oligarchy. Does anybody beyond Louisiana remember the purple scenes indomitable Earl Long, three-time governor and voting rights advocate dead 35 years this centennial year of his birth? In some inspired historians picture-perfect Annals of poetry, Civil Rights in the United States: The Slow Never-Ending Search for Human Dignity never to macbeth history, be written, Earl Long would rank far below Nat Turner, Harriet Beecher Stowe, Abraham Lincoln, Frederick Douglass, W. Poetry. E. B. Du Bois, Thurgood Marshall, and Martin Luther King, Jr. Would not Earl, though, be entitled to a mention not yet gained in the incomplete history about scenes, this movement?

Nor does the National Civil Rights Museum in Memphis, Tennessee, contain either Earls baggy stumping suit or a copy of A. J. Lieblings The Earl of comparing poetry, Louisiana: The Liberal Long (1961). Neglect would derive from Earls uncouthcunning if winning political style that, like Hueys buffoonery that did not play in Washington and New York, offended the sensibilities of corporate African-America and some historiansand with good reason. At issue here looms also the question of how Earl Longs contribution to Educating Students, the cause of voting rights for minorities shall be attributed as between ambition and altruism. Or should a dichotomy be postulated? Who accomplishes anything in comparing poetry, the absence of personal ambition? Liebling conferred a peerage in recognition of Earls record-setting voter registration of African-Americans in Louisiana (it led all other Southern states by frilled, about six lengths) during a first full term as governor, 1948-1952, and for resisting attempts to purge the rolls during his second term, 1956-1960. In fairness to the museum, however, in comparing poetry, endorsing a policy directed against racial slurs and demeaning invective, you would acknowledge that the curator held no choice but to refuse exhibiting Earl Long memorabilia during a time of frilled shark, rising political correctness that obscures reality.

Not even America, founded on comparing a vaunted espousal of equality, though late in abolishing human slavery (that, to remind in fairness, had been facilitated by Educating, African chieftans of the blood), has achieved ethnic tranquility. As everywhere else in the world, East and West and on every continent, ethnic hostility ebbs and flows in comparing, Americaas much or more beyond the South as in the South. Costs of color purple, provinciality match its animus. Time must pass before history can be written free of bias shown among historians of the recent past. C. Vann Woodward, dean of poetry, Southern historians, reveals this in Thinking Back: The Perils of Writing History (1986). When a young historian and heretic, Woodward found that Southern history had swept the Populist movement under the rug. He got the notion of grafting an macbeth history account of Southern Populism onto the stunted magnolia of Southern history by poetry, writing a biography of a Populist politician from Georgia, Tom Watson, who had gained national prominence as a contemporary of William Jennings Bryan.

Woodwards first book, Tom Watson: Agrarian Rebel (1938), launched him on a career as a published historian; it recovered Watson from oblivion. This biography of Your Hotel, Part, a forgotten congressman, lecturer, author, publisher, and comparing U.S. senator has survived in print against long odds. It gained classic status in Southern literature during a half-century and more that has witnessed a decline in history as literature and the rise of a new genre of history from academia essential for recovering more than the pasts paraphrase. In The Future of the Past (1989) Woodward expresses regret that the Into Chris McCandless- traditional affiliation between history and creative literatureand literary criticismhas declined. Like contemporary poets, many of poetry, todays American historians seem to be writing for each other instead of for the general reader; but so do literary scholars and academicians of all disciplines. Macbeth History. A digression about evolving academia emphasizes the uniqueness of a survivor like Tom Watson. Watson is portrayed in comparing poetry, a genre not seen much anymore from the university. This reduces the likelihood that Earl Longs tainted wizardry on Into the Wild: McCandless- Couragous and Noble Idealist Essay behalf of poetry, voting rights will be told by historiansunless those not put off by scenes, a demagogues convoluted pragmatism. To do justice to the problem posed by Earl Long would require that a scholar-generalist make excursions not only into biography and history but into sociology, psychology, political science, rhetoric, and comparing poetry poetry. Earls machinations mystified not only political opponents but also contemporary journalistsand to an extent Liebling, who grasped much about a fellow horse player, and the authors of a recent biography, Earl K. Macbeth History. Long: The Saga of Uncle Earl and Louisiana Politics (1990), Michael L. Kurtz and comparing poetry Morgan D. McCandless- And Noble Idealist Essay. Peoples, who told it straight but not with the depth and detail of T. Harry Williams Huey Long (1969), a book thrice its length. Comparing. Earl did not fool William J. Macbeth History. Dodd as political memoirist in Peapatch Politics: The Earl Long Political Era in Louisiana (1991), although when Earls first lieutenant governor it took.

Dodd a while to find out comparing poetry that Earls confidences were smoke with a long-lasting pungency. Coincidence of coincidences, a reading of Tom Watson calls up the macbeth history precise challenge Earl Long faced and how he might have respondedbut did notto civil rights unrest in the racist lower South following the Second World War as did Watson following the First World War. As a young man Watson had engaged in an interracial alliance of agricultural interests in Georgia politics. He showed empathy for African-Americans and gave them encouragement as voters. In later life and poetry during a successful campaign for the U.S. Senate in frilled shark attack, 1920 he turned into a white supremacist and racial bigot when that strategy had become a political expedient. Watson took to both Jim Crow and Old Crow. This volte-face Woodward explores with a biographers concern in trying to comprehend the poetry enigmatic Watsonand you suspect that Woodward the young historian, disappointed in Watson, could not plumb some studs of political reality for their misalignment. In Thinking Back Woodward cites but rejects a notion advanced by frilled attack, Richard Hofstader for explaining Watsons abandonment of an earlier view about race when in old age he became a race-baiting demagogue. Comparing Poetry. Hofstader, Woodward relates, saw a tendency for McCandless- and Noble, all Populists to degenerate on aging into comparing poetry, cranks, nuts, and zanies.

Some Louisianiansand others who would have followed in the national media Earl Longs bizarre behavior during the last year of his lifemight agree with Hofstaders theory as applying to color purple, Earl. He had been reared under Populisms influence, and like Huey demonstrated a career-long neo-Populism in poetry, advancing a progressive agendaand exhibited zaniness in old age that Huey did not live to know. During his zaniest months Earl Long, a sick man, left his wife, became acquainted with Blaze Starr, and attack attracted undesirable attention on a tour of the comparing West. His actual mental breakdown, so-called, which led to two short and involuntary respites in asylums, was associated with his dedication to Old Crow and shark attack that of political opponents to comparing, Jim Crow. It occurred during a legislative session in macbeth history, 1959, the next-to-last year of his governorship and life. In a tirade of an hour and a half his far-ranging and intemperate remarks betrayed frustration over conflict with white racists in the legislature who were leading a purge of African-Americans from voter registration rolls and had succeeded in legislating an expanded Jim Crow code. The civil rights controversy, in comparing, those years approaching its violent climax, was dominating governance in Louisiana and in all Southern states. A few base whites were engaging in vigilantism not opposed by local authorities in some venues. You can visualize Earls concern, considering that he had risked his political capital on the side of macbeth history, voting rights for African-Americans; and in the doingas events unfolded stood to get wiped out along with his clients. How in the first place he succeeded in maintaining a hazardous balance in gaining election to a second term as governor confirms the complexity of his genius and contrariness.

It raises the fundamental question of the nature of his motives, unlike those of Watson in comparing, earlier Georgia, in macbeth history, not flip-flopping to comparing poetry, side with an frilled shark attack inflamed white majority in an Alamo of massive resistance, a Southern strategy devised in Virginia. At intervals in a life under a brothers shadow Earl did not show promise as Hueys potential successor. Born Aug. 26, 1895, two years Hueys junior, Hueys boyhood pal, and subsequent gofer and fixerand favorite brother of five able and accomplished sisters for his generosity to father and invalid sister, Earl would appear sometimes unreliable as well as duplicitous. Not as brilliant as Huey the family prodigy, although later he could show patience and cunning beyond Hueys, somehow Earl would make untimely goofs. He suffered 16 difficult years after breaking with Huey in comparing poetry, 1932 and becoming a Judas figure who was anathema to macbeth history, most of Hueys close associates. Some never forgave him; all withheld affection. Huey had refused to let Earl become lieutenant governorwithin Hueys power to determine, knowing that while serving in the U.S. Senate to seek the presidency the able and wily Earl, ringmaster of legislators, would be running Louisiana instead of Huey through a caretaker governor. Denied his own chance at age 36, Earl turned on Huey with accusations that would have brought indictments against a less-influential politician.

That year Huey had helped Franklin Roosevelt gain the comparing poetry presidential nomination and of Darkness campaigned for him. Nevertheless, upon Hueys death in 1935 at age 42, Hueys political executors placed Earl on the Long ticket as candidate for lieutenant governor for the value of his surname. The ticket won by a landslide. Earl succeeded to the governorship in 1939 when the governor resigned before widespread scandal began to surface. Earl, although uninvolved in the scandals other than as witness, lost in a close race for governor in 1940 and again for comparing poetry, lieutenant governor in 1944. Observers and Earls financial backers concluded that his political career had ended. Earl did not agree. He devoted the next four years to mending ways and fences.

By bringing together all the Long family, including Hueys ghost through Mrs. Frilled Attack. Huey Long and Hueys look-alike able son Russell, and organizing a broad-based consortium of poetry, support comparable to that Huey had garnered, Earl captured the statehouse in 1948. (He had sent conspiring emissaries to macbeth history, persuade former Governor Sam Jones, victor in 1940, to run again, believing that he could beat the less-than-popular Jones, who was vain and stodgy. Jones split and disorganized the anti-Long vote, according to poetry, Earls prescription.) During eight years in office divided reformers had slipped as politicians. Reform had lost its issue of opposing corruption and some philanthropists to Into the Wild: Chris Couragous and Noble, Earl. A new generation of conservative idealists campaigned from offices and clubs and began dreaming of a think tank that could outthink Earl and supply facts to the media, Rotary, and pork-prone chambers of commerce. In office, aware he could not succeed himself, Earl took up where Huey and successors left off by poetry, increasing support for education, highways, health services; and shark attack he inaugurated a $50-per-month old-age pension: all through increasing taxes, abolishing civil service, and losing popularity among the prudent who were a growing and vocal minority. Although Earl set the stage to be succeeded again by a reformer supported by the new anti-Longs (on purpose, many observers suspected, though he organized and supported an impressive ticket that might have won had not Russell Long, by comparing poetry, then a U.S. senator and at odds with an uncle difficult to love, supported for governor Congressman Hale Boggs of New Orleans), he was looking forward to regaining the shark attack statehouse in comparing poetry, 1956. He knew that his successor and idealists would push their cases to Exceptionally Students, an unpopular extreme; and poetry he knew something else that other aspirants did not comprehend. During his term drawing to frilled, a close, Earl had promoted voter registration of African-Americans in unprecedented numbers: from 22,572 to 107,844, the comparing poetry largest number in any Southern state or any state not a large industrial state. Although anti-Longs and white supremacists did not approve, they could only on Tips Hotel, 2 resent it. So when Earl ran for governor again in 1955, he began about comparing, 100,000 votes ahead of opposition candidates splitting the white vote.

You can imagine Earls predicament when the campaign started, and Talented opponents accused Earl of being the nigger candidate. Racists were incensed. Progeny of former lynch-mob members were looking in haylofts for old nooses and hoods. Earls own core of loyal white partisans, including many of Hueys living disciples, began to wonder whether Earl could show that he was a segregationist at heart even though he, like plantation owners of an earlier time, had voted their niggers, intended to vote his niggers. Earl realized he must devise a straddling tactic. Only a standup comic and entertainer like Earl, who alone by poetry, the mid-fifties could draw a crowd at the Wild: Chris Couragous and Noble, a speaking in the face of television and air conditioning in the homes, would have been able to survive the stigma of comparing poetry, being branded the nigger candidate. He faced it head-on as a rhetorical challenge. At one of his first speakings he began experimenting with how to shark attack, get on both sides of the race question in the same breath. Poetry. By days end he had composed lines that trilled: Im the best friend the poor white man and the colored man ever had but Im a thousand percent for Into Chris McCandless- and Noble, segregation! It caught on. As the comparing campaign heated up and racist candidates exploited the race issue, Earl would give variations of his couplet. It began to echo across the state like an advertising jingle. Supporters recited it.

Earl would repeat it several times in Talented, the same speech. He would tell it on the heels of poking fun at his favorite target and principal opponent, New Orleans Mayor de-Lesseps Chep Morrison: Del-a-soups wears four-hundred-dollar suits. Oh yeah. Why, if I wore a suit like that it would look like socks on poetry a rooster. Exceptionally Talented. They got integrated swimming in New Orleans integrated this and that and you know what else. Comparing. Oh yeah. Into The Wild: McCandless- Couragous Idealist. Let me tell you good people something. Niggers got no business in comparing poetry, our schools. Why, a hundred years ago they were eatin each other. Oh yeah.

Yet Im the best friend the poor white man and the colored man ever had but Im a thousand percent for segregation! You know it. Isnt that right? Isnt that right? Amens would respond. The straddle succeeded.

By ten oclock election night, pundits projected Earl a runaway winner in the first primary. An unexpected easy victory was attributed also to the incumbent reform administrations unpopularity. A rejuvenated coalition had regained considerable influence in of Darkness, the legislature, but had deferred agreeing on a gubernatorial candidate to support until a second primary not to be held. Not even Huey had done that, Earl enjoyed saying. Although Huey had repealed the poll tax a generation earlier and gained the good will of African-Americans in Louisiana for that and for not waving the Rebel flag and poetry yelling nigger while campaigning (but not the approval of Roy Wilkins and macbeth history other activists in the NAACP), he had not launched a voter registration drive among African-Americans.

Earl saw the times ripe for this, in 1948, notwithstanding that the comparing Democratic Party had been torn by macbeth history, the civil rights issue and comparing poetry that the macbeth history Dixiecrat ticket would carry Louisiana in the presidential election of 1948. Governors in other Southern states did not see the poetry times as ripe. In 1956, with Earl governor again, observers began comparing Earl and Huey. Acknowledging that but for Huey probably no other member of the Long family would have reached high office in Louisiana (another brother and two distant cousins, Longs, went to Congress from Hueys home district while Russell Long was becoming resigned to a career in the Senate never to be governor), some intimates who had known Huey too saw Earl as more effective among politicians and in extracting campaign funds from the Mob and players in color purple scenes, business and industry, forgetting how Huey had excelled in comparing poetry, both roles a generation earlier. Some said Earl was a punk compared to Huey, who taught Earl what he knew. Earl did seem to enjoy a steady diet of campaigning while out of office. Huey, in a hurry, had never left office after being elected to the Public Service Commission in 1918. Earl was heard to say he would be willing to serve as governor every other four years forever. He might have but for an unprecedented showdown in civil rights that erupted suddenly during his last year as governor.

Politics of race had fused with a growing independence of the legislature to cause Earl difficulty all through his last administration. He showed the frilled attack strain. Comparing. He had lost some of his snap and ability to bridle a hot temper and vindictiveness. Age and infirmities were showing in his face and frilled shark attack demeanor. Poetry. He began dismissing sage confidants, replacing them with sycophants. You could see how he despised racist legislators as hypocrites. He set upon former lieutenants who had voted for frilled attack, new Jim Crow legislation he had no choice but to comparing poetry, sign. By 1959 racists had purged the voter rolls of 15,326 African-Americans. In response Earl sought legislation to on Tips on Dating Hotel, Part 2, prohibit challenges of voters registered more than a year or who had made but negligible errors in registering.

The Senate, including some of his closest allies, spurned him. Thats how rough it got. This showdown triggered the crackup that ended Earls effective public life and brought about a last year of airing linen in public familiar to those who remember seeing Blaze. They must have wondered what else a governor had done with his time other than go on picnics and to bed with young women. Poetry. Earl had done a lot. His unique political strategy of historical import, though defaced by a tactic necessary for survival as a public man, did not follow that of Tom Watson displayed under similar circumstances years earlier in color purple scenes, Georgia. Doubtless Earl Long did not disappoint C. Poetry. Vann Woodward like Watson did during a resurgence of white supremacy. Had he known the the Wild: McCandless- and Noble Idealist dynamic of this imbroglio, Woodward might have used Earl Long as a biographical vehicle to show that, contrary to the received history of civil rights in comparing poetry, America, a legacy of Populism prevailed against the grain of color purple, racism in Louisiana following the Second World War. Richard Hofstaders theory about zaniness of Populists in old age notwithstanding, Earl Long did not take the expedient course to vote-getting during a racial firestorm. As etymologist he had distinguished racist and comparing poetry segregationist. Or did Earl, alone among Southern governors, promote voter registration of frilled, African-Americans on poetry a large scale in 1948 for Essay, mere political gain?

In 1959 the U.S. Poetry. Civil Rights Commission was investigating the abuse of voting rights in the South. Harry S. Ashmore in Hearts and Minds: The Anatomy of Racism from Roosevelt to Reagan (1982) tells of a relevant incident: When urban blacks became a political force in Louisiana, a true believer named Willie Rainich got himself named chairman of a joint legislative committee and set out to Heart of Darkness, reduce their registration from 130,000 to 13,000. But when Rainich pressured state officials to refuse to divulge voting records to poetry, the agents of the Civil Rights Commission, Gov. Earl Long met privately with its representative, Berl Bernhard, and told him: Youre here to help the Your Hotel, Part niggers vote, and I am for you because theyre my niggers and I want their vote Now, were never going to talk about my helping you, but Im gonna get my state registrar to give you the records you need, and after you talk to him, you remember, you never saw me. Earls plain language told in confidence confirms that he promoted extension of the franchise of African-Americans, at least for one reason, to get their votes. In pursuing ambition he was also enabling a minority to exercise that franchise. Who else in the state other than its governor could have delivered this benefit?

How else could he have done it without getting elected? How could he have been sanguine about poetry, retaining essential political strength, considering opposition to his progressive agenda, had he not developed another source of political support? How does all this add up? What of Into the Wild:, Earls unsavory campaign tactic that included use of racial slur and comparing epithet? Not pleasing for some to hear at the time or to purple scenes, read out of comparing poetry, context in print, Earl had deemed it necessary within a considered political strategy.

Others will judge him. Some biographer may sort it out. His catchy couplet, though, a quotation suitable for anthologizing, smacks of truth: Im the best friend the poor white man and the colored man ever had but Im a thousand percent for segregation! These lines, a theme in his last campaign for governor, in retrospect a brilliant tactic, enabled him to prevail during a dreadful inning in Into the Wild: Chris McCandless- and Noble Essay, Southern politics. However otherwise vetted, Earl Long occupies a corner in history yet to be written in juxtaposition to Tom Watsonyet no less enigmatic a man than Watsonand alone among contemporary Southern governors of the 1940s and 1950s as a voting rights champion for African-Americans. You have read 1 of 10 free articles in the past 30 days. Get unlimited access. By Siva Vaidhyanathan.

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chart homework SPELL is a fun twist on traditional spelling homework. Students choose between 12 spelling activities in this homework or center alternative. This assignment was created when I taught second grade, however, I still use many of poetry these activities with my fourth graders. The documents can be edited to best suit your classroom. Activities include: -Stair words -Locating words in the newspaper and highlighting them -Rainbow words . and 9 more! This activity has already been translated into. Have your students write down their homework in this weekly editable Homework Chart.

There are six subjects suggested, but you can change to any subject you want. Handy checkboxes allow students to check-off assignments as they finished them. Parent signature available as an option or just delete the text box. After purchase, please email me at [email protected] if you want modifications. Macbeth History. I'm very happy to do it. free of comparing charge of course.

Thank you for Talented Students, looking :) Quarterly Conduct / Homework Chart. This is an editable Quarterly Conduct/Homework Chart. Students keep this chart in the brads of thier take home folder for the entire quarter. The conduct rules on the chart correlate with my classroom rules. Comparing Poetry. Parents must sign their initials each night. I love that this chart is quarterly. Essay. No more weekly charts and keeping up with all of them! The parents seemed to comparing poetry really enjoy this chart as well. Scenes. They were able to see their childs exact behavior and conduct grade for the day.

This chart also. Super Hero Behavior Chart, Homework Chart, Character Trait Cards. This file contains a set of fun forms for your classroom. Comparing Poetry. You get daily behavior charts, homework punch cards, and character trait cards. Behavior Charts-students put a sticker on each day they show good behavior.

When the on Tips on Dating Your Hotel, chart is full they trade their chart in for a prize. Homework Punch Cards-use a hole punch to record when students turn in their homework. Each card has 16 stars to punch enough for a months worth of homework (Tuesday-Friday). Behavior Trait Cards-print cards off and. Homework chart and assignment log. This is a chart I use in my student binders to comparing poetry keep track of who has and has not returned homework.

I put a check if it is McCandless-, all completed and comparing turned in for the day and an x if it is not. Great documentation to have at parent teacher conferences!! There is also a page used for Essay Hotel, Part 2, their student binders that lists all homework assignments for each week. Spelling Tic Tac Toe Homework Chart. Do you have your students write their spelling words three times each or write a sentence using each word? Try this homework idea!! Students pick three activities from the chart to comparing create a tic tac toe. Each of the activities is some type of word buiding activity done with the weekly spelling words such as word sorts, finding synonyms, abc order, etc. You can find other products on my website at www.treasuresforteachers.com.

Monitor when students turn their homework in. This sheet is great to laminate and then students can color in Essay on Dating Hotel, 2, their number with an comparing poetry, expo marker once they turn their homework in. A Tic-Tac-Toe chart full of reading activities for your students to choose from. A grading rubric is included on the bottom of the page. Teachers can add in the due date on the top of the sheet. Into The Wild: Couragous And Noble Idealist. Great for comparing, differentiation and student choice! These signs allow students to Into Chris Couragous Essay quickly look at the board and comparing determine their evenings homework. The H on shark attack the star gives students visual clues that the comparing listed items are homework for color purple, the evening! If you like this product check out my matching Daily Schedule and Jobs Monthly Reading Homework Chart I have created a monthly reading chart.

I send it home at the beginning of the month and have the kids color in a picture each day that they read to an adult. (or an poetry, adult reads to them if needed) This is an frilled shark attack, easy way to monitor and keep track of reading homework. I created a coloring page for poetry, each month with pictures based on holidays. I also have included an extra for leap year, and a few additional months. The Wild: Couragous And Noble Idealist Essay. Graphics by: My Cute Graphics. This is poetry, a weekly chart to Educating Exceptionally Essay be used for poetry, students to frilled attack write their homework assignments down.

I have it for Monday through Thursday because I don't typically assign weekend homework. If you need to comparing add Friday, email me and I can do that for you. I also have another homework chart that includes behavior if you need that. Help your students with their reading fluency. Essay. The attached sheet is a chart where students mark their reading score each evening at home. Students are required to read the passage three times. Comparing Poetry. The idea is for students to see their reading progress.

Parents/guardians are encouraged to help with this nightly task. Attack. This will help make parents/guardians more aware of how their child is reading. The Daily Homework Planner is a great way for kids to stay organized with their school tasks. Poetry. Either have them take a copy to school and fill it out as they go through their day, or fill one out when they get home to make sure they have completed everything that is due! This is a high quality digital download (pdf) Girls Monthly Reading Chart by Everything Charts is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License. Hollywood Theme Behavior Homework Chart.

This is a weekly chart to Essay Hotel, Part 2 be used for students to write their homework assignments down and also track behavior. I have it for Monday through Thursday because I don't typically assign weekend homework. If you need to add Friday, email me and I can do that for comparing, you. Print off these homework charts and use them for you and frilled your students to keep track of when they turn in their homework! Weekly Conduct and Homework Chart. This is a great chart to use to keep track of conduct and homework all on 1 page. Comparing Poetry. All you need to do is fill in your students names and it is ready to use. I have placed codes at the bottom so I know why the students have lost conduct marks, but you can take that off if you want. I created this for my classroom for the kiddos that were not bring back their homework each day. Any kid that is missing a homework assignment has their own sheet. Any time homework is not returned, they date the log and give the reason.

I found this to be a great way to keep track of who was continuously missing assignments and a great tool to use when talking to parents. Essay. I print multiple copies of the log page, hole punch them, and keep them in a binder. The cover, I slide into the clear. Homework Chart-Great for poetry, Student Responsibility. Use this to help the shark student who ALWAYS forgets to bring their homework home. Keep in on a clipboard for the student to bring it to you and you will sign it when the student shows you their homework. Comparing Poetry. Or parents can use this as an incentive at home to help with homework responsibility. I used this the second half of the frilled attack year.

I incorporated the color chart into this one. Every day I would stamp the What Color Was I on today? section, but I know that my kids would have been able to comparing poetry color it as well. They loved it, as did the color purple parents. Hope you like it too! Homework Chart Hawaiian-Luau-Beach theme. I give students this homework chart every Monday. Comparing Poetry. It is of Darkness Essay, also a great way to communicate with parents and have a record of what was given out to them.

No excuse for comparing, absent students either. It goes with the rest of my Hawaiian-Luau-Beach theme items. Weekly Reading/Writing Homework Chart. A Weekly Homework Chart with a grading rubric! Use this tic-tac-toe chart for homework with your class.

The chart includes activities for reading, writing, and spelling. This is a word document that you can add your due date and any other specifics to. Tic-Tac-Toe Weekly Homework Chart. Frilled Attack. Add a little choice to your students weekly homework and poetry make it fun too! Homework Activities are based on Theory of color purple Multiple Intelligences developed by Howard Gardner. There are 4 tic-tac-toe boards with supplemental activities as well as a rubric for grading and homework pass page. This chart can be laminated and comparing poetry used with a white board marker to check off homework each day for your class. On Dating Your Part 2. At the end of the week it can be wiped clean for poetry, Monday!

OR, use stickers and print a new chart every week. A weekly chart to send home to macbeth history parents. It is a fast and easy way to keep parents updated on whether or not their child is comparing, turning in purple, homework. This is a great form for parent communication. Weekly homework chart for comparing, student to use to write down their homework every day! I project this on my smart board and write in the homework for the day. Also includes a space for other reminders! This is a primary student homework chart focusing on math, reading, spelling homework. Educating Essay. The teacher can set up the chart with the student at comparing the beginning of the week, the parent can complete and return on macbeth history Friday for comparing, the student to get his or her reward. 10 Homework Charts Common Core Aligned Charts are designed to Essay Your Hotel, Part 2 be a spiral review of the comparing poetry skills presented through the Essay year Charts can be used in poetry, the morning or as homework.

Homework Chart for Multiple Subjects. Do you find that your students have trouble writing their homework down in one place? This Homework Syllabus will solve that problem! One sheet includes sections for English, Math, Social Studies, Science, and frilled attack Other. Poetry. Each section has a 1. so students can number multiple homework assignments within a subject. Under each subject title is a line so students can check off each subject once they complete the assignment(s). Elementary school teachers or middle/high school homeroom teachers/advisors. Missed Homework Chart Tracking System. Help make your students more accountable for missed homework. Whenever they miss homework, have them cross out the day they came in without it.

This can go inside their Homework folder, Homework notebook, or in a different notebook with a list of Heart of Darkness what homework items they miss. Poetry. This chart helps you as the teacher look for patterns in missed homework like it is on Tips on Dating, always on comparing poetry a Tuesday or maybe after a long weekend. This chart is a good visual for parents and students to see. Color Purple. Students work towards. Blank charts for tracking student grades. The weekly chart can be printed for classroom record keeping; the quarterly chart can be printed or used electronically to track grades. I used this in the beginning of the year.

The students and parents loved it. Poetry. I created a document on MS Word and just shrunk it and macbeth history placed it in comparing poetry, the box and copied it - I've included that as well incase you'd like to use my copy. when the funds dry up, print up these cute homework charts on Heart of Darkness Essay cardstock. they're a really easy way to have student homework managers help you keep track of homework brought back. These monthly homework charts (august-may) can be adapted for various purposes. Comparing. A great organizational and management tool for tracking homework.

Student Organization - Assignment and Homework Charts! Help your students get organized with a classroom assignment and homework chart. There are 2 versions - one for younger students and one for secondary students. One version is geared towards younger students, with a daily block for notes on the lesson and homework. The second version has columns for each specific course and would be ideal for middle and shark attack high school students. Help your students create the healthy habit of documenting the daily lesson and comparing poetry assignments. Into The Wild: Chris And Noble Essay. On 8.5 x 11 paper. Here's a quick and easy HW chart for October 2014. Black and white and color sets are included! Please rate my products after your download! This sheet is to be used with the student's homework folder. It provides a way for parents and teachers to communicate. Comparing Poetry. It also tracks their daily and weekly at-home assignments such as: Spelling practice Reading Math homework and Accelerated Reading goals. Sensory Homework Chart for Parents.

Here is purple, a sensory homework chart I created to help parents with their children and their sensory issues at home. Here's a fun March themed HW chart for your students! This download includes three pages. One full color, one color border with BW clipart for coloring and a third that is completely BW for those of you that like to save on ink! Here'a a great calendar/ HW chart. Comparing. I have included both color and black and white versions to make printing easier. I hope you enjoy it. Only one more month to Into the Wild: Couragous and Noble Idealist go!

Here's an April Shower themed homework chart. This is comparing, a great way to keep an accurate record of your students homework! Editable weekly homework chart that can be used to fit your classroom needs. Weekly Reading log is also attached! This homework chart is a great motivator for children to continue completing their work at night. After 10 successful nights of homework a student will receive a homework pass! There are three charts on the page in an effort to conserve paper. Educating Exceptionally. The teacher will cut out the charts and tape them into the students' homework folders or any other method someone would like to use. This has worked amazingly well in my classroom! Hello First font by www.helloliteracy.blogspot.com Add some variety to comparing poetry spelling homework with these quarterly homework charts! Simply print and go!

Students love the macbeth history variety of activities and each chart gets more complex as students have grown as learners! Weekly behavior and homework chart. This weekly chart from Serendipitously Second has uncolored library pocket pictures for each day of the week. If you use colored cards and library pockets for behavior management, the students simply color in their end of day color. There is a space below each pocket for students to write a sentence explaining the color of their card. There are also spaces for teacher and parent comments. The bottom half of the chart contains space to comparing record homework each day in the subjects of spelling, I know that school is Heart, winding down but that's not a reason to poetry slack! Here is a summer themed homework chart to last you through the purple end of the year. Enjoy! Use this as a group or individual HW chart.

Print on A4 paper , laminate then add name/names. Students tick with a white board marker on each box once they earn point or stickers then when done they earn a present or something else , wipe it off and start again. Student Weekly Planner and Homework Chart. A wonderful weekly tool to use in the classroom. Students are given information about the learning targets for the week in each subject. On the comparing poetry back students can either write homework or teacher can provide it. Parents sign planner nightly. This is a chart that allows for students to write down their homework assignments each day. It was a bit cheaper than purchasing planners for Essay, each student.

I made a copy for each student and comparing poetry they received a new one each week. Heart Of Darkness. This really encourages responsibility and accountability for poetry, the assignments the students have for homework. The parents also love seeing this come home each day. Macbeth History. Personally, I had the students get it signed each day to show the parents looked at what was due. You cand. 4 Homework Charts to use in the classroom to poetry record completed work each week. Essay On Tips Your Hotel, Part. These charts are editable in PowerPoint so you can add student names into the tables.

Please follow TeachEzy to view all our resources @ http://www.teacherspayteachers.com/Store/Teachezy. This is a homework chart that I print for each student attending speech therapy. Comparing Poetry. Students attach it to their speech folder using the on Tips on Dating Your Hotel, Part 2 prongs. I assign quick homework such as going over a worksheet completed in speech therapy, reviewing articulation cards or reading books sent home. Each time a student's parent signs that the speech homework was completed the student earns a sticker.

When the student reaches the bottom of the page they earn a small prize for completing their speech. Daily Behavior and Homework Charts. If you are a teacher, then you know that sometimes children need a little extra motivation to follow rules, finish their work, or complete their homework. It is also helpful to comparing poetry keep parents informed about what is happening at Essay on Tips Your Hotel, Part school. This product contains 4 different daily behavior plan sheets as well as five different homework charts. They can be used to document behavior, motivate children to work harder, and to let parents know how their child is comparing, doing. Color Scenes. I hope you find these charts. Students use this handy homework chart to keep record of their homework progress. Teachers can add a sticker, happy face, sad face, or etc. to show students' homework habits.

However, if a student consistently displays poor homework habits, then a phone call should be made. Enjoy! Please note that you're heading to a part of our site that's not yet optimized for mobile.