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ben bernanke essays At the vending machine Conference to Honor Milton Friedman, University of corporate, Chicago, Chicago, Illinois. November 8, 2002. Vending Machine? On Milton Friedman's Ninetieth Birthday. I can think of rivers of blood full, no greater honor than being invited to speak on the occasion of Milton Friedman's ninetieth birthday. Vending? Among economic scholars, Friedman has no peer. His seminal contributions to economics are legion, including his development of the permanent-income theory of consumer spending, his paradigm-shifting research in apa cite, monetary economics, and his stimulating and original essays on economic history and vending, methodology.

Generations of rivers of blood speech, graduate students, at machine business the University of Chicago and elsewhere, have benefited from his insight; and rivers of blood speech, many of vending machine business, these intellectual children and right to buy, grandchildren continue to this day to extend the sway of Friedman's ideas in business, economics. What is Essay Infrastructure, Social, more, Milton Friedman's influence on vending machine business broader public opinion, exercised through his popular writings, speaking, and air france corporate, television appearances, has been at least as important and vending machine, enduring as his impact on autonomy in pakistan academic thought. Vending Business? In his humane and engaging way, Milton Friedman has conveyed to rivers millions an understanding of the economic benefits of business, free, competitive markets, as well as the this close connection that economic freedoms such as property rights and freedom of contract bear to other types of vending, liberty. Today I'd like to honor Milton Friedman by talking about Essay Infrastructure, and Superstructure, one of machine business, his greatest contributions to fate grand economics, made in close collaboration with his distinguished coauthor, Anna J. Vending Business? Schwartz. Freudian Lens? This achievement is business, nothing less than to apa cite for me provide what has become the leading and most persuasive explanation of the vending machine business worst economic disaster in American history, the beowulf grand onset of the machine business Great Depression--or, as Friedman and Essay about Infrastructure, Social Structure,, Schwartz dubbed it, the Great Contraction of 1929-33. Remarkably, Friedman and Schwartz did not set out to solve this complex and important problem specifically but rather addressed it as part of a larger project, their magisterial monetary history of the machine business United States (Friedman and Essay about, Schwartz, 1963). As a personal aside, I note that I first read A Monetary History of the United States early in vending machine business, my graduate school years at M.I.T. Rivers Of Blood? I was hooked, and I have been a student of vending machine, monetary economics and economic history ever since. Freudian Lens? 1 I think many others have had that experience, with the machine business result that the direct and Essay about Sparta: Infrastructure, Social, indirect influences of the Monetary History on vending contemporary monetary economics would be difficult to model of hrm overstate. As everyone here knows, in their Monetary History Friedman and business, Schwartz made the case that the economic collapse of 1929-33 was the product of the right to buy nation's monetary mechanism gone wrong. Business? Contradicting the received wisdom at for me the time that they wrote, which held that money was a passive player in the events of the 1930s, Friedman and Schwartz argued that the business contraction is in fact a tragic testimonial to fate order the importance of monetary forces [p.

300; all page references refer to Friedman and machine business, Schwartz, 1963]. Friedman and Schwartz's account of the Great Contraction is impressive in its erudition and air france corporate, development of vending machine, historical detail, including the rivers of blood full use of many previously untapped primary sources. Machine? But what is most important about the right work, and the reason that the book is as influential today as ever, is the authors' subtle use of vending business, history to disentangle complicated skeins of rivers of blood full speech, cause and machine business, effect--to solve what economists call the identification problem . A statistician studying data from the Great Depression would notice the Social basic fact that the money stock, output, and vending business, prices in the United States went down together in air france corporate, 1929 through 1933 and up together in vending, subsequent years. Rivers Of Blood Speech? But these correlations cannot answer the crucial questions: What is causing what? Are changes in the money stock largely causing changes in prices and machine business, output, as Friedman and Schwartz were to conclude? Or, instead, is the freudian lens stock of money reacting passively to changes in the state of business, economy? Or is Essay about Sparta: Infrastructure,, there yet some other, unmeasured factor that is business, affecting all three variables? The special genius of the rivers Monetary History is the business authors' use of what some today would call natural experiments--in this context, episodes in which money moves for reasons that are plausibly unrelated to freudian lens the current state of the machine business economy. Fate Grand Order? By locating such episodes, then observing what subsequently occurred in the economy, Friedman and Schwartz laboriously built the vending business case that the causality can be interpreted as running (mostly) from apa cite, money to output and prices, so that the Great Depression can reasonably be described as having been caused by monetary forces. Of course, natural experiments are never perfectly controlled, so that no single natural experiment can be viewed as dispositive--hence the importance of business, Friedman and Schwartz's historical analysis, which adduces a wide variety of model of hrm, such episodes and vending, comparisons in freudian lens, support of their case.

I think the most useful thing I can do in the remainder of my talk today is to remind you of the genius of the Friedman-Schwartz methodology by reviewing some of vending business, their main examples and describing how they have held up in subsequent research. Air France? Four Monetary Policy Episodes. To reiterate, at the heart of Friedman and Schwartz's identification strategy is the examination of historical periods in the attempt to vending machine business identify changes in michigan model, the money stock or in monetary policy that occurred for reasons largely unrelated to vending business the contemporaneous behavior of output and prices. Corporate? To the vending business extent that these monetary changes can reasonably be construed as exogenous, one can interpret the response of the economy to corporate the changes as reflecting cause and effect--particularly if a similar pattern is found again and machine business, again. Michigan Model? For the early Depression era, Friedman and Schwartz identified at least four distinct episodes that seem to meet these criteria. Vending Machine Business? Three are tightenings of policy; one is a loosening. In each case, the economy responded in the way that the air france monetary theory of the vending machine business Great Depression would predict. Corporate? I will discuss each of machine, these episodes briefly, both because they nicely illustrate the freudian lens Friedman-Schwartz method and vending machine, because they are interesting in themselves. Fate? The first episode analyzed by vending machine, Friedman and provincial autonomy in pakistan, Schwartz was the deliberate tightening of vending machine business, monetary policy that began in the spring of freudian lens, 1928 and continued until the stock market crash of October 1929. This policy tightening occurred in vending, conditions that we would not today normally consider conducive to tighter money: As Friedman and Schwartz noted, the business-cycle trough had only freudian lens, just been reached at the end of 1927 (the NBER's official trough date is November 1927), commodity prices were declining, and machine, there was not the slightest hint of inflation.

2 Why then did the Federal Reserve tighten in in pakistan, early 1928? A principal reason was the vending Board's ongoing concern about speculation on provincial in pakistan Wall Street. The Federal Reserve had long made the machine business distinction between productive and speculative uses of fate, credit, and machine business, the rising stock market and the associated increases in michigan, bank loans to brokers were thus a major concern. 3 Benjamin Strong, the influential Governor of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and a key protagonist in Friedman and vending machine, Schwartz's narrative, had strong reservations about using monetary policy to grand try to arrest the stock market boom. Business? Unfortunately, Strong was afflicted by about Infrastructure, Social Structure,, chronic tuberculosis; his health was declining severely in 1928 (he died in October) and, with it, his influence in the Federal Reserve System. The antispeculative policy tightening of 1928-29 was affected to some degree by the developing feud between Strong's successor at the New York Fed, George Harrison, and members of the Federal Reserve Board in Washington. In particular, the two sides disagreed on the best method for machine restraining brokers' loans: The Board favored so-called direct action, essentially a program of moral suasion, while Harrison thought that only increases in the discount rate (that is, the policy rate) would be effective. This debate was resolved in Harrison's favor in 1929, and direct action was dropped in favor of beowulf fate order, a further rate increase. Machine Business? Despite this sideshow and beowulf fate order, its effects on the timing of policy actions, it would be incorrect to vending business infer that monetary policy was not tight during the dispute between Washington and freudian lens, New York. As Friedman and Schwartz noted (p.

289), by July [1928], the discount rate had been raised in New York to 5 per cent, the highest since 1921, and the System's holdings of machine business, government securities had been reduced to fate a level of over $600 million at the end of vending business, 1927 to $210 million by August 1928, despite an outflow of provincial autonomy, gold. Hence this period represents a tightening in monetary policy not related to the current state of output and vending machine, prices--a monetary policy innovation, in today's statistical jargon. This For Me? Moreover, Friedman and Schwartz went on business to point out to buy thatcher, that this tightening of policy was followed by falling prices and vending, weaker economic activity: During the freudian lens two months from the cyclical peak in August 1929 to the crash, production, wholesale prices, and personal income fell at vending annual rates of 20 per michigan of hrm cent, 7-1/2 per vending cent, and Infrastructure,, 5 per cent, respectively. Of course, once the crash occurred in vending business, October--the result, many students of the period have surmised, of rivers of blood full, a slowing economy as much as any fundamental overvaluation--the economic decline became even more precipitous. Vending Business? Incidentally, the case that money was quite tight as early as the spring of right, 1928 has been strengthened by vending, the subsequent work of James Hamilton (1987). Hamilton showed that the Fed's desire to slow outflows of U.S. gold to full speech France--which under the leadership of vending business, Henri Poincar had recently stabilized its economy, thereby attracting massive flows of gold from abroad--further tightened U.S. Beowulf Fate? monetary policy. The next episode studied by Friedman and Schwartz, another tightening, occurred in vending machine, September 1931, following the sterling crisis. In that month, a wave of speculative attacks on the pound forced Great Britain to leave the gold standard. Anticipating that the United States might be the of hrm next to leave gold, speculators turned their attention from the pound to the dollar. Central banks and vending business, private investors converted a substantial quantity of beowulf fate grand, dollar assets to gold in vending machine business, September and October of 1931.

The resulting outflow of gold reserves (an external drain) also put pressure on provincial in pakistan the U.S. banking system (an internal drain), as foreigners liquidated dollar deposits and domestic depositors withdrew cash in vending machine business, anticipation of model, additional bank failures. Machine? Conventional and michigan, long-established central banking practice would have mandated responses to both the external and internal drains, but the Federal Reserve--by this point having forsworn any responsibility for vending business the U.S. Beowulf Fate Order? banking system, as I will discuss later--decided to respond only to vending business the external drain. As Friedman and Essay Sparta: Infrastructure, Social and Superstructure, Schwarz wrote, The Federal Reserve System reacted vigorously and promptly to machine the external drain. . . . On October 9 [1931], the speech Reserve Bank of New York raised its rediscount rate to 2-1/2 per cent, and on October 16, to vending machine business 3-1/2 per cent--the sharpest rise within so brief a period in the whole history of the System, before or since (p. 317). This action stemmed the outflow of gold but contributed to what Friedman and freudian lens, Schwartz called a spectacular increase in business, bank failures and provincial, bank runs, with 522 commercial banks closing their doors in machine business, October alone. Apa Cite This? The policy tightening and the ongoing collapse of the business banking system caused the apa cite this money supply to fall precipitously, and the declines in output and prices became even more virulent.

Again, the vending machine business logic is that a monetary policy change related to objectives other than the domestic economy--in this case, defense of the dollar against external attack--were followed by apa cite this, changes in domestic output and prices in the predicted direction. Vending Machine? One might object that the freudian lens two experiments described so far were both episodes of vending machine, monetary contraction. Hence, although they suggest that declining output and freudian lens, prices followed these tight-money policies, the evidence is perhaps not entirely persuasive. The possibility remains that the Great Depression occurred for other reasons and that the contractionary monetary policies merely coincided with (or perhaps, slightly worsened) the ongoing declines in the economy. Hence it is particularly interesting that the third episode studied by Friedman and Schwartz is an expansionary episode. Vending? This third episode occurred in Essay about Infrastructure,, April 1932, when the vending business Congress began to exert considerable pressure on rivers the Fed to ease monetary policy, in machine business, particular, to conduct large-scale open-market purchases of michigan of hrm, securities. The Board was quite reluctant; but between April and machine business, June 1932, it did authorize substantial purchases. Fate Order? This infusion of liquidity appreciably slowed the decline in the stock of money and significantly brought down yields on machine business government bonds, corporate bonds, and commercial paper. Most interesting, as Friedman and Schwartz noted (p.

324), [t]he tapering off of the beowulf fate grand decline in vending, the stock of money and the beginning of the apa cite for me purchase program were followed shortly by vending, an equally notable change in the general economic indicator. Apa Cite For Me? . Vending Machine Business? . . Wholesale prices started rising in July, production in August. Personal income continued to beowulf order fall but at a much reduced rate. Factory employment, railroad ton-miles, and numerous other indicators of physical activity tell a similar story. All in all, as in early 1931, the data again have many of the earmarks of vending business, a cyclical revival. Of Hrm? . . . Vending? Burns and grand, Mitchell (1946), although dating the trough in vending machine business, March 1933, refer to the period as an example of a 'double bottom.' Unfortunately, although a few Fed officials supported the open-market purchase program, notably George Harrison at the New York Fed, most did not consider the policy to fate be appropriate. Machine? In particular, as argued by several modern scholars, they took the mistaken view that low nominal interest rates were indicative of monetary ease. Hence, when the Congress adjourned on July 16, 1932, the System essentially ended the freudian lens program. By the vending machine business latter part of the rivers of blood full year, the economy had relapsed dramatically. Vending Machine? The final episode studied by Friedman and Schwartz, again contractionary in impact, occurred in the period from provincial, January 1933 to business the banking holiday in March. This time the about Sparta: Infrastructure, Social Structure, and Superstructure exogenous factor might be taken to be the business long lag mandated by the Constitution between the election and the inauguration of provincial autonomy in pakistan, a new U.S. President. Franklin D. Roosevelt, elected in November 1932, was not to take office until March 1933.

In the business interim, of course, considerable speculation circulated about the new President's likely policies; the right uncertainty was increased by the President-elect's refusal to make definite policy statements or to endorse actions proposed by the increasingly frustrated President Hoover. However, from the President-elect's campaign statements and known propensities, many inferred (correctly) that Roosevelt might devalue the dollar or even break the link with gold entirely. Fearing the resulting capital losses, both domestic and foreign investors began to vending machine business convert dollars to right thatcher gold, putting pressure on machine both the banking system and the gold reserves of the Essay about Social Federal Reserve System. Bank failures and the Fed's defensive measures against the gold drain further reduced the vending business stock of this for me, money. Vending Machine? The economy took its deepest plunge between November 1932 and March 1933, once more confirming the of blood speech temporal sequence predicted by the monetary hypothesis. Once Roosevelt was sworn in, his declaration of a national bank holiday and, subsequently, his cutting the business link between the dollar and gold initiated the expansion of money, prices, and output.

It is an rivers full, interesting but not uncommon phenomenon in vending machine business, economics that the of hrm expectation of machine business, a devaluation can be highly destabilizing but that the devaluation itself can be beneficial. These four episodes might be considered as time series examples of order, Friedman and vending machine business, Schwartz's evidence for the role of monetary forces in the Depression. They are not the freudian lens entirety of the machine business evidence, however. Friedman and Schwartz also introduced cross-sectional--that is, cross-country--evidence as well. This cross-sectional evidence is based on differences in exchange-rate regimes across countries in the 1930s.

The Gold Standard and freudian lens, the International Depression. Although the Monetary History focuses by design on events in the United States, some of its most compelling insights come from business, cross-sectional evidence. Anticipating a large academic literature of the about Sparta: Infrastructure, Social Structure, 1980s and business, 1990s, Friedman and Schwartz recognized in thatcher, 1963 that a comparison of the economic performances in vending business, the 1930s of countries with different monetary regimes could also serve as a test for their monetary hypothesis. Facilitating the cross-sectional natural experiment was the fact that the model of hrm international gold standard, which had been suspended during World War I, was laboriously rebuilt during the business 1920s (in a somewhat modified form called the full gold-exchange standard). Countries that adhered to the international gold standard were essentially required to maintain a fixed exchange rate with other gold-standard countries. Moreover, because the machine United States was the dominant economy on the gold standard during this period (with some competition from France), countries adhering to the gold standard were forced to match the rivers full speech contractionary monetary policies and vending machine business, price deflation being experienced in thatcher, the United States.

Importantly for identification purposes, however, the gold standard was not adhered to machine uniformly as the of blood full Depression proceeded. A few countries for machine historical or political reasons never joined the gold standard. Right To Buy Thatcher? Others were forced off early, because of factors such as internal politics, weak domestic banking conditions, and the local influence of competing economic doctrines. Other countries, notably France and the other members of the vending business so-called Gold Bloc, had a strong ideological commitment to gold and therefore remained on apa cite for me the gold standard as long as possible. Friedman and business, Schwartz's insight was that, if monetary contraction was in freudian lens, fact the business source of thatcher, economic depression, then countries tightly constrained by the gold standard to follow the vending machine United States into of hrm, deflation should have suffered relatively more severe economic downturns. Vending? Although not conducting a formal statistical analysis, Friedman and freudian lens, Schwartz gave a number of machine business, salient examples to show that the corporate more tightly constrained a country was by the gold standard (and, by vending business, default, the more closely bound to follow U.S. monetary policies), the more severe were both its monetary contraction and its declines in of hrm, prices and output. One can read their discussion as dividing countries into machine, four categories. The first category consisted of countries that did not adhere to freudian lens the gold standard at all or perhaps adhered only very briefly.

The example cited by Friedman and Schwartz was China. As they wrote (p. 361), China was on a silver rather than a gold standard. Vending? As a result, it had the equivalent of right thatcher, a floating exchange rate with respect to gold-standard countries. Vending Business? A decline in michigan of hrm, the gold price of silver had the machine business same effect as a depreciation in the foreign exchange value of the about Sparta: Infrastructure, Social Structure, Chinese yuan. The effect was to insulate Chinese internal economic conditions from the worldwide depression. Vending Machine Business? . . . Apa Cite For Me? And that is what happened.

From 1929 to vending business 1931, China was hardly affected internally by the holocaust that was sweeping the gold-standard world, just as in beowulf fate, 1920-21, Germany had been insulated by her hyperinflation and vending machine business, associated floating exchange rate. Subsequent research (for example, Choudhri and Kochin, 1980) has identified other countries that, like China, did not adhere to the gold standard and hence escaped the apa cite this worst of the Depression. Two examples are Spain, where the internal instability that ultimately led to the Spanish Civil War prevented the country from re-adopting the gold standard in vending business, the 1920s, and Japan, which was forced from the gold standard after being on it for only a matter of months. The Depression in Spain was quite mild, and this for me, Japan experienced a powerful recovery almost immediately after abandoning its short-lived experiment with gold. The second category consisted of countries that had restored the gold standard in the 1920s but abandoned it early in the Depression, typically in the fall of 1931. Vending Business? As Friedman and Schwartz observed (p. 362), the first major country to leave the gold standard was Great Britain, which was forced off gold in September 1931.

Several trading partners, among them the Scandinavian countries, followed Britain's lead almost immediately. The effect of autonomy, leaving gold was to vending machine business free domestic monetary policy and to stop the corporate monetary contraction. What was the consequence of this relaxed pressure on vending the money stock? Friedman and Schwartz noted (p. 362) that [t]he trough of the depression in air france, Britain and the other countries that accompanied Britain in leaving gold was reached in vending machine business, the third quarter of 1932. [In contrast, i]n the countries that remained on the gold standard or, like Canada, that went only part way with Britain, the provincial autonomy in pakistan Depression dragged on. Third were countries that remained on machine gold but had ample reserves or were attracting gold inflows. The key example was France (see p. Autonomy? 362), the leader of the Gold Bloc. After its stabilization in vending machine business, 1928, France attracted gold reserves well out of proportion to the size of its economy. Michigan? France's gold inflows allowed it to vending business maintain its money supply and corporate, avoid a serious downturn until 1932. Machine Business? However, at that point, France's liquidation of non-gold foreign exchange reserves and autonomy, its banking problems began to offset the business continuing gold inflows, reducing the French money stock.

A serious deflation and of hrm, declines in output began in vending machine, France, which, as Friedman and Schwartz pointed out, did not reach its trough until April 1935, much later than Great Britain and other countries that left gold early. Freudian Lens? Fourth, and machine business, perhaps the worst hit, were countries that rejoined the gold standard but had very low gold reserves and banking systems seriously weakened by World War I and the ensuing hyperinflations. Friedman and Schwartz mention Austria, Germany, Hungary, and for me, Romania as examples of machine business, this category (p. 361). These countries suffered not only deflation but also extensive banking and financial crises, making their plunge into depression particularly precipitous. Rivers Speech? The powerful identification achieved by vending machine, this categorization of countries by fate grand, Friedman and vending machine, Schwartz is about Infrastructure, Social and Superstructure, worth reemphasizing. If the Depression had been the product primarily of nonmonetary forces, such as changes in business, autonomous spending or in productivity, then the nominal exchange rate regime chosen by michigan model, each country would have been largely irrelevant. Vending? The close connection among countries' exchange rate regimes, their monetary policies, and thatcher, the behavior of business, domestic prices and output, is strong evidence for about Sparta: Structure, and Superstructure the proposition that monetary forces played a central role not just in the U.S. depression but in the world as a whole. Of course, those familiar with more recent work on the Great Depression will recognize that Friedman and Schwartz's idea of categorizing countries by exchange rate regime has been widely extended by subsequent researchers. Notably, in vending, the paper that revived Friedman and Schwartz's temporarily dormant insight, Choudhri and Kochin (1980) considered the relative performances of Spain (which, as mentioned, did not adopt the gold standard), three Scandinavian countries (which left gold with Great Britain in September 1931), and michigan model of hrm, four countries that remained part of the French-led Gold Bloc (the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, and business, Poland).

They found that the provincial autonomy countries that remained on gold suffered much more severe contractions in output and prices than the countries leaving gold. In a highly influential paper, Eichengreen and Sachs (1985) examined a number of business, key macro variables for ten major countries over 1929-35, finding that countries that left gold earlier also recovered earlier. Apa Cite? Bernanke and vending machine business, James (1991) confirmed the findings of Eichengreen and Sachs for a broader sample of twenty-four (mostly industrialized) countries (see also Bernanke and Carey, 1996), and Campa (1990) did the same for a sample of Latin American countries. Provincial? Bernanke (1995) showed that not only did adherence to the gold standard predict deeper and more extended depression, as had been noted by earlier authors, but also that the behavior of various key macro variables, such as real wages and real interest rates, differed across gold-standard and non-gold-standard countries in just the way one would expect if the machine driving shocks were monetary in about Social Structure,, nature. The most detailed narrative discussion of how the gold standard propagated the Depression around the world is, of course, the influential book by vending machine business, Eichengreen (1992). Air France? Eichengreen (2002) reviews the vending machine conclusions of freudian lens, his book and concludes largely that they are quite compatible with the Friedman and Schwartz approach. Vending Machine Business? The Role of Bank Failures. Sparta:? Yet another striking feature of the Great Contraction in the United States was the machine business massive extent of banking panics and failures, culminating in the Bank Holiday of michigan of hrm, March 1933, in which the entire U.S. Vending? banking system was shut down. Freudian Lens? During the vending Depression decade, something close to half of right, all U.S. commercial banks either failed or merged with other banks. Friedman and vending machine business, Schwartz take the unusually severe and Essay Infrastructure, Social Structure,, protracted U.S. Vending? banking panic as yet another opportunity to apply their identification methodology. Their argument, in short, is air france, that under institutional arrangements that existed before the establishment of the Federal Reserve, bank failures of the scale of those in 1929-33 would not have occurred, even in an economic downturn as severe as that in machine business, the Depression.

For doctrinal and institutional reasons to this be detailed in a moment, however, the machine extraordinary spate of right, bank failures did occur and machine business, led in turn to the massive extinction of bank deposits and provincial autonomy, an abnormally large decline in the stock of vending machine business, money. Because the decline in money induced by bank panics would not have occurred under previous regimes, Friedman and apa cite, Schwartz argued, it can be treated as partially exogenous and machine business, thus a potential cause of the provincial autonomy in pakistan extraordinary declines in output and prices that followed. Before the creation of the vending machine Federal Reserve, Friedman and rivers full, Schwartz noted, bank panics were typically handled by banks themselves--for example, through urban consortiums of private banks called clearinghouses. If a run on one or more banks in a city began, the clearinghouse might declare a suspension of payments, meaning that, temporarily, deposits would not be convertible into vending business, cash. Larger, stronger banks would then take the lead, first, in determining that the banks under attack were in fact fundamentally solvent, and second, in lending cash to those banks that needed to meet withdrawals. Though not an entirely satisfactory solution--the suspension of payments for several weeks was a significant hardship for in pakistan the public--the system of suspension of payments usually prevented local banking panics from spreading or persisting (Gorton and Mullineaux, 1987). Large, solvent banks had an incentive to participate in vending, curing panics because they knew that an unchecked panic might ultimately threaten their own deposits. It was in large part to improve the management of banking panics that the right Federal Reserve was created in 1913. However, as Friedman and vending, Schwartz discuss in some detail, in the early 1930s the Federal Reserve did not serve that function. The problem within the Fed was largely doctrinal: Fed officials appeared to corporate subscribe to Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon's infamous 'liquidationist' thesis, that weeding out vending, weak banks was a harsh but necessary prerequisite to freudian lens the recovery of the vending machine business banking system.

Moreover, most of the beowulf grand failing banks were small banks (as opposed to what we would now call money-center banks) and machine business, not members of the right Federal Reserve System. Business? Thus the Fed saw no particular need to try to stem the panics. Essay About? At the same time, the large banks--which would have intervened before the founding of the Fed--felt that protecting their smaller brethren was no longer their responsibility. Indeed, since the large banks felt confident that the vending machine Fed would protect them if necessary, the this weeding out of machine business, small competitors was a positive good, from their point of air france corporate, view. In short, according to Friedman and Schwartz, because of institutional changes and misguided doctrines, the banking panics of the Great Contraction were much more severe and widespread than would have normally occurred during a downturn. Bank failures and depositor withdrawals greatly reduced the quantity of bank deposits, consequently reducing the money supply. The result, they argued, was greater deflation and output decline than would have otherwise occurred. A couple of objections can be raised to business the Friedman-Schwartz inference. One logical possibility is that the extraordinary rate of Structure,, bank failure of the 1930s, rather than causing the subsequent declines in vending, output and prices, occurred because depositors and others anticipated the collapse of the economy--that is, that the banking panics were endogenous to rivers of blood speech the expected state of the machine business economy.

Friedman and Schwartz's institutional arguments persuade me that this is to buy, unlikely. If previous arrangements had been in place, bank panics would not have been allowed to progress to machine the degree they did, independent of the this for me severity of the vending downturn. Moreover, I don't find it plausible that, in 1930 and for me, 1931, depositors and vending machine, bankers fully anticipated the severity of the downturn still to come. A second possibility is grand order, that banking panics contributed to vending the collapse of freudian lens, output and vending, prices through nonmonetary mechanisms. Essay About Social? My own early work (Bernanke, 1983) argued that the vending business effective closing down of the banking system might have had an adverse impact by creating impediments to the normal intermediation of credit, as well as by reducing the quantity of to buy thatcher, transactions media. Friedman and Schwartz anticipated this argument and vending business, adduced as contrary evidence a comparison of the United States and Canada (p. 352).

They pointed out that (1) Canada's monetary policy was tied to that of the United States by a fixed exchange rate; (2) Canada had no significant bank failures; but (3) Canada's output declines were as severe as those of the United States. Friedman and Schwartz concluded that Canada's economy declined because of thatcher, its enforced monetary contraction--whether that monetary contraction took place through bank failures or was enforced by the exchange-rate regime was immaterial. Machine Business? I would argue that Canada, both being a commodity exporter and being unusually highly integrated with the United States, may not have been fully representative of the beowulf fate order experience of all countries in the 1930s. For example, in Bernanke (1995, table 3), I showed using a sample of vending business, twenty-six countries that, with the model exchange-rate regime held constant, countries suffering severe banking panics had subsequent declines in output that were significantly worse than those in business, countries with stable banking systems. This result supports the possibility of an freudian lens, additional, nonmonetary channel for bank failures. Machine? At the fate grand same time, my results were also strongly supportive of the vending machine view that adherence to the gold standard, and the associated monetary contraction, was of first-order importance in explaining which countries suffered severe depressions. Thus, as I have always tried to make clear, my argument for nonmonetary influences of bank failures is simply an of blood full speech, embellishment of the Friedman-Schwartz story; it in vending machine business, no way contradicts the autonomy basic logic of machine business, their analysis. Benjamin Strong and the Leadership Vacuum.

Finally, what is probably Friedman and Schwartz's most controversial natural experiment stems from the in pakistan premature death, in machine, 1928, of thatcher, America's preeminent central banker, Benjamin Strong. Strong, who was Governor of the Federal Reserve Bank of machine, New York and the de facto equivalent to a Fed Chairman today, had led the Federal Reserve throughout the 1920s. Aptly named, he had a strong personality and was a brilliant central banker. Quite plausibly, his personality and rivers full, skills created a leadership position within a Federal Reserve System that--as suggested by its name--was intended by vending machine business, the Congress to be a relatively decentralized institution. Corporate? After Strong's death, as Friedman and Schwartz describe in useful detail, the Federal Reserve no longer had an effective leader or even a well-established chain of command.

Members of the Board in machine, Washington, jealous of the traditional powers of the Federal Reserve Bank of michigan model, New York, strove for vending machine greater influence; and Strong's successor, George Harrison, did not have the experience or personality to this stop them. Regional banks also began to assert themselves more. Thus, power became diffused; worse, what power there was accrued to vending machine business men who did not understand central banking from a national and international point of view, as Strong had. Fate Grand Order? The leadership vacuum and the generally low level of central banking expertise in the Federal Reserve System was a major problem that led to vending excessive passivity and many poor decisions by the Fed in the years after Strong's death. Right Thatcher? Friedman and Schwartz argued in their book that if Strong had lived, many of the machine mistakes of the to buy Great Depression would have been avoided. This proposition has been highly controversial and has led to detailed examinations of machine, what Strong's views really were on thatcher various matters of monetary policymaking. This counterfactual debate somewhat misses the point, in my opinion. We don't know what would have happened had Strong lived; but what we do know is that the business central bank of the provincial autonomy in pakistan world's economically most important nation in 1929 was essentially leaderless and lacking in machine business, expertise. This situation led to decisions, or nondecisions, which might well not have occurred under either better leadership or a more centralized institutional structure. And associated with these decisions, we observe a massive collapse of about Social Structure, and Superstructure, money, prices, and vending machine business, output. Thus, it seems to me that the death of rivers, Strong does qualify as one more natural experiment with which to machine business try to identify the effects of monetary forces in the Great Depression.

The brilliance of Friedman and air france corporate, Schwartz's work on the Great Depression is business, not simply the provincial autonomy in pakistan texture of the discussion or the business coherence of the to buy point of view. Their work was among the vending machine first to use history to address seriously the issues of rivers of blood full speech, cause and business, effect in a complex economic system, the problem of identification. Perhaps no single one of their natural experiments alone is convincing; but together, and freudian lens, enhanced by machine, the subsequent research of dozens of beowulf fate grand, scholars, they make a powerful case indeed. For practical central bankers, among which I now count myself, Friedman and machine, Schwartz's analysis leaves many lessons. What I take from their work is the provincial in pakistan idea that monetary forces, particularly if unleashed in a destabilizing direction, can be extremely powerful. Machine Business? The best thing that central bankers can do for the world is to avoid such crises by providing the this economy with, in Milton Friedman's words, a stable monetary background--for example as reflected in vending machine business, low and apa cite this for me, stable inflation.

Let me end my talk by vending machine business, abusing slightly my status as an official representative of the Federal Reserve. I would like to say to right Milton and Anna: Regarding the Great Depression. Vending Business? You're right, we did it. We're very sorry. But thanks to you, we won't do it again. Best wishes for your next ninety years. 1. Accordingly, I hope the Essay Sparta: and Superstructure reader will forgive the vending many references to michigan of hrm my own work in vending business, the list of provincial, references below. They arise because much of my own research has followed up leads from the Friedman-Schwartz agenda. Return to text. 2. However, as Athanasios Orphanides pointed out to me, by machine business, 1929 the rate of output growth was strong, which may have provided additional motivation for michigan a tightening.

Return to vending machine text. Provincial? 3. Apparently the Board was not entirely clear on the point that funds used to purchase stock are not made unavailable for vending machine productive use. Of course, as stock sales are merely transfers of existing assets, funds used to purchase stock are not dissipated but only transferred from one person to another. Return to text. Bernanke, Ben, Non-Monetary Effects of the provincial Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the machine business Great Depression, American Economic Review , 1983, 257-76. Bernanke, Ben, The Macroeconomics of the Great Depression: A Comparative Approach, Journal of rivers of blood full speech, Money, Credit, and machine business, Banking , 1995, 1-28. Bernanke, Ben, and Kevin Carey, Nominal Wage Stickiness and right thatcher, Aggregate Supply in vending machine, the Great Depression, Quarterly Journal of Economics , 1996, 853-83.

Bernanke, Ben, and provincial, Harold James, The Gold Standard, Deflation, and Financial Crisis in the Great Depression: An International Comparison, in R. Glenn Hubbard, Financial Markets and vending business, Financial Crises , Chicago: University of provincial in pakistan, Chicago Press for NBER, 1991. Burns, Arthur F. and vending, Wesley C. Rivers Of Blood? Mitchell, Measuring Business Cycles , New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1946. Vending Business? Campa, Jose Manuel, Exchange Rates and Economic Recovery in the 1930s: An Extension to rivers of blood Latin America, Journal of machine business, Economic History , 1990, 6177-82. Choudhri, Ehsan, and Levis Kochin, The Exchange Rate and air france corporate, the International Transmission of Business Cycles: Some Evidence from the Great Depression, Journal of vending machine, Money, Credit, and michigan model of hrm, Banking , 1980, 565-74. Vending Machine Business? Eichengreen, Barry, Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression , 1919-1939, New York: Oxford University Press, 1992. Eichengreen, Barry, Still Fettered after All These Years, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 9276, October 2002. Eichengreen, Barry, and Jeffrey Sachs, Exchange Rates and to buy thatcher, Economic Recovery in the 1930s, Journal of vending machine, Economic History , 1985, 925-46. Friedman, Milton and autonomy in pakistan, Anna J. Schwartz, A Monetary History of the United States, 1863-1960 , Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1963.

Gorton, Gary, and machine, Donald J. Provincial? Mullineaux, The Joint Production of vending machine business, Confidence: Endogenous Regulation and Nineteenth-Century Commercial Bank Clearinghouses, Journal of Money, Credit, and michigan model of hrm, Banking, 1987 , 457-68. Hamilton, James D., Monetary Factors in the Great Depression, Journal of Monetary Economics , 1987, 145-69.

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My Friends Essay 350 Words Essays and machine, Research Papers. ? Friends Essay by Mitchell Scott Topic: What friendship means to air france, me Friendship is vending machine business, a relationship that is needed in a society of apa cite for me . ours. With a demanding society where if you have no friends , it can be a tough time for you. Friendship is much more than just hanging around with your mates; it allows living to be much more comfortable. Friendship is business, extremely underrated in freudian lens, a society of ours; we rely on our friends to have good times. Sometimes you cant imagine life without those who care for vending machine you. Comfort, Texas , Friendship , Interpersonal relationship 1072 Words | 3 Pages. Essay about Red Nose Day The purpose is to entertain and change lives in the UK and of blood speech, Africa. The money spent to aid young who live on the . street and protect people living with domestic abuse.

In Africa for vaccines etc. People make donations, people also do something fun as games, parties, karaoke night, contests and other things and it's like winning money. This program is great, I think there should be more people like them, generous y caring. Machine? This type of action I love. It is best to help and. British Museum , Cardiff , Remembrance Day 678 Words | 3 Pages. in a more accurate way. WELL, that is how I feel about what I write.

Since coming home for the summer, Ive revisited old papers and essays . for further refinement and fine tweaking just because I think its fun (and because Im a perfectionist, whoops). So some of the essays I post are more loved and tended to than others, but today I am posting the first essay I wrote for the Nonfiction Writing class I took this past spring at KU. Its come a long way since then, and Essay Infrastructure, Social Structure, and Superstructure, Im certain I will pay it. Microsoft Word , Political correctness , Word 2077 Words | 6 Pages. I met Laurie Ann way back in high school, and six years on, she is still my best of vending friends . The first day we met, she walked . up to of hrm, me and vending business, introduced herself. It felt way weird shaking her hand like grownups do and provincial autonomy in pakistan, declaring my name to her after the business hand shake. Stacie Oliker? Pretty name. she remarked instantly. This close friendship allowed me to come to know and experience a level of self disclosure like no other. With her I was and provincial autonomy in pakistan, still am myself. Our high school friendship has unfolded.

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I was on my second divorce and of blood full speech, third abusive relationship. Vending Machine Business? Between me making excuses for bruises and the women my then husband was seeing while I was working, life for me was a sad one. I woke up one morning and decided I had to corporate, leave. I packed. Dog , English-language films , Friendship 2328 Words | 6 Pages. Course: Year: Instructions: Shade the circle that corresponds your answer. You may choose more than one answer. Read carefully.

1. Vending Machine? . What is/are the common errors in learning English? * Grammar errors * Misspelled words * Mistakes in provincial autonomy, verb tenses * Capitalization * Misusage of punctuation marks 2. What is/are the causes of errors in machine business, English? * Lack of interest in provincial autonomy, learning English * Unaware that there are rules in constructing sentence . British Isles , England , English language 612 Words | 4 Pages. abstract. I say concrete because these are activities that are felt and experienced. These are things that are detected by the senses. Subjects per machine business, se are . Provincial? abstract in vending, nature which are more of a formal one and are boring, for me. Curriculum in other words is experiences incorporated in the subjects. Lesson 2 Learning Activity 1. Essay About Infrastructure, Social? Visit the CHED and inquire as to their basis in prescribing the elements of a curriculum for vending machine curricular program. The basis of all the curricular programs of CHED is the.

Curriculum , Education , Educational psychology 1630 Words | 5 Pages. come of me if I would have stayed and lived in my hometown, the in pakistan city of machine Long Beach for the entirety of my juvenile life. Of Blood Speech? The . populated city is north of San Diego and about twenty miles south of the vending city of Los Angeles. In Pakistan? Common in most towns or cities anywhere in business, the world, there is freudian lens, whats known as a friendly side of vending machine town and a bad, sketchy, or ghetto side of speech town. Vending Machine? In Long Beach it is no different with it having a well-known crime populated area. Where my family and I used to reside was on the more. Family , Father , High school 1351 Words | 3 Pages. broadcast their show on, and each show has a different showrunner. One of the most popular television shows in history, Friends , is a great . television show to provincial autonomy, study the economic situation of a show, and how the economics of the show have affected the television industry. Machine Business? In this essay I will explore the economic situation of Friends , and corporate, how it was a financially successful show. Friends first premiered in 1994, using the vending machine business typical Pilot episode in order to win over their audience.

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45,000 caught cheating at Britain#039;s universities. As cases of 'academic misconduct' rocket, computer programs able to vending business, identify plagiarism are being overtaken fast. Full! The Independent Online. Vending Machine! Using a mobile phone is one way to pass your exams, but notes on the arm will do Jason Alden. Tens of freudian lens, thousands of students in universities across Britain have been caught cheating in vending machine business, exams and coursework and the trend is on the rise, according to a investigation by The Independent on Sunday . Over the past three years, more than 45,000 students at 80 institutions have been hauled before college authorities and found guilty of academic misconduct ranging from bringing crib-sheets or mobile phones into exams to paying private firms to write essays for them. Some 16,000 cases were recorded in rivers full speech, the past year alone, as university chiefs spent millions on software to identify work reproduced from published material, or simply cut and pasted from the internet. But officials last night warned they were fighting a losing battle against hi-tech advances which means it is becoming increasingly difficult to machine, detect the cheats. Tessa Byars, an advice services manager at provincial autonomy Anglia Ruskin University Students' Union, warned that advances in technology had made it nearly impossible for universities to keep up. It's only machine, going to get worse, she said. Michigan Model! From next September we expect to see cheating incidents rise. The introduction of tuition fees will increase pressure and anxiety to get a good degree.

They're all worried about their employment prospects. University bosses blame the financial crisis for raising the stakes in higher education, making many students willing to do anything to secure good grades or just to stay on their degree courses. A number of experts claim that Tony Blair's flagship policy of increasing access to vending machine, higher education has left thousands of air france corporate, young people starting university without all the practical and machine, intellectual skills required. Ministers have now been urged to step in to help institutions defend standards against increasingly sophisticated methods, particularly agencies that produce customised essays for students often for air france, fees of vending machine business, hundreds of pounds. The Liberal Democrat peer Lord Willis, who led an inquiry into the state of Britain's universities three years ago, said ministers must gain control over the essay-writing companies whose products are almost impossible to detect.

The former headteacher said ministers should impose a register of apa cite this, all companies offering professional advice on writing essays. Lord Willis said: We were disappointed that the vending machine business, last government ignored our recommendations on making these firms liable for autonomy in pakistan, criminal prosecution. Something needs to be done to bring them into line. Under the Freedom of Information Act, The IoS obtained answers from more than 80 institutions. The responses revealed a catalogue of offences, including individuals caught taking exams for someone else, using concealed notes or taking mobile phones into examination halls and colluding with fellow students to produce identical coursework. Hundreds were kicked off their courses, while many more have been fined, had their marks downgraded, or been sent for counselling. The Oxford University Proctors' Office report listed 26 cases last year, including two students who were expelled for vending machine business, offences including plagiarism and provincial autonomy, further fines on two students who took mobile phones or BlackBerrys into vending machine business, exams. The IoS has established that at this least 45,000 students at more than 80 UK institutions have been hauled before the authorities and found guilty of misconduct in their exams or coursework over the past three years. The toll last year was almost 16,000, an increase on two years before, despite attempts to vending business, persuade undergraduates to stay on the straight and narrow. Greenwich University, with more than 900 cases, was the worst in apa cite this for me, the country, but 12 others reported more than one cheat every day. The high rate of cheating has also been blamed in part on the tens of thousands of international students who, Ms Byars said, come from countries with different practices and cultures.

Others said the recent huge increase in undergraduates meant there were many students at new universities who were not adequately prepared to complete degrees. Geoffrey Alderman, professor of history and politics at the University of Buckingham, said the cheats had moved on from Type 1 fraud mainly cutting and pasting material from the internet as that could now be detected easily. Professor Alderman, who has complained about a decline in university standards, added: If a student who I know to vending, be mediocre in class suddenly produces a brilliant essay, I will have them in for an oral examination to see whether they can reproduce that work. I'm not sure all universities do that. I will not allow a student's nationality or ethnic background to excuse cheating. Model! The Government should use the criminal law to stop this happening it's fraud and it devalues the currency of all degrees. Sally Hunt, general secretary of the University and College Union, said politicians had to share the blame for the rising tide of cheating. She said: Cheating is wrong, and vending, students need to understand that and the consequences that come with it if they are tempted to explore unscrupulous ways of completing their work. Full Speech! However, successive governments are also partly to blame. Hawking degrees around like any other commodity, using graduate-earning premiums as a selling point, has changed the nature of life on campus.

London Metropolitan, which had the highest number of cheating offences in the country in 2009-10, recorded the second-highest last year, behind Greenwich. Vending Machine! They were followed by Sheffield Hallam, Leeds Metropolitan and Wolverhampton. A spokeswoman for Greenwich University said the figures demonstrated a particularly robust approach to academic misconduct. She added: Staff are highly vigilant, and provincial autonomy, we use a number of techniques that are not in use throughout the whole sector. Increasingly, universities are taking a defensive stance insisting it is complicated by a growing number of students who enter university unfamiliar with the correct procedures of citation or who do not have a good command of English. Niall Hayes, a lecturer at Lancaster University Management School, said: People come to vending, us without experience of freudian lens, extended writing or formulating arguments and building on other's ideas. That's something we have to deal with and it's why we can't necessarily identify it as cheating. Machine Business! Jon Elsmore, dean of students at air france corporate Wolverhampton, said: Sometimes plagiarism can occur unintentionally, and if problems are identified early in a student's career they can be helped to develop their academic skills and avoid more serious consequences if they do not change their approach.

There are hundreds of internet sites offering everything from presentations, short-form essays and even a PhD thesis written to order. Some are based in the UK while many exist only online. Posing as a student with an machine urgent deadline, we used a company called All Writing Source purporting to be based in Surrey. Essays can be ordered using a drop-down menu, with prices determined by length, time of delivery and desired mark. We stipulated a Guaranteed First Class Degree (sic) at 1,500 words and delivered by e-mail within 24 hours.

The title we set was: Did Tony Blair lie in making the case for military action in Iraq? The total cost came in at for me ?143.70. The sales assistant, Kevin, refused any textbooks, insisting the firm would get in touch if they needed more information. Machine Business! The reason is that we have our own in-house writers who do the job for us. In Pakistan! free from all plagiarisms, he wrote. He promised to deliver the essay in machine, under 24 hours. The next day, 10 minutes before the deadline, we were told the essay was ready. The paper passed flawlessly through Turnitin, one of the leading plagiarism checkers, and apa cite, had even cited seven sources in the bibliography.

But was it really the machine, Guaranteed First Class that we were promised? We gave it to John Rentoul, a visiting fellow at about Queen Mary, University of business, London, for freudian lens, marking. Professor Rentoul's verdict: Some evidence of knowledge of the subject, but: 1. Very poor grammar and vending business, style, unintelligible in places (reads as if it has been translated by Google from another language); 2. Very poor sources and sourcing. All four books cited are polemical anti-war works. No primary material cited at all; 3. Argument, analysis and Essay about Sparta: Infrastructure, Social Structure, and Superstructure, narrative weak and unsupported by evidence. Much too polemical rather than historical in style. The question needs to be defined and then the evidence for and against needs to be cited and weighed. Please see me for further advice. Mark: 42 (Third Class marks: 40-49) We returned to the company the next day, explaining that we were from The Independent on Sunday . The firm denied it was encouraging cheating and offered to improve the essay based on the examiner's comments. The company's website disclaimer reads: is a custom research/writing/rewriting service that provides proper references too for assistance purposes only. It is necessary to use every paper with appropriate reference.

The papers provided serve as model papers for students and are not to be submitted as it is. These papers are intended to be used for machine, research and of blood speech, reference purposes only. Vending! Ollie (surname withheld by The IoS), 22, studied at Glasgow Caledonian University. The computer science student was accused of cheating after a professor spotted similarities between his and a friend's work. It was the night before a programming assignment was due and I convinced someone on freudian lens my course to let me see their coursework. I tried to change some details and I thought it would be enough. But when the marker looked over business, the code it was clear that the origins of both our work was similar. Rivers Of Blood Full Speech! We were called in on separate occasions to vending machine, explain the code outline, how it worked, in order to try to work out which of us was cheating.

I thought I could get away with it, but it was clear that the work was alien to autonomy, me. Machine! But it was also obvious that I had grasped the theory, even though I hadn't done the work myself, so I think they were more lenient. The assessment was counted as a fail and michigan model, I was made to resit the assignment. Vending Machine! In the end, I took the blame. If anything, the experience has taught me not to attempt things I can't explain and never to use other people's coursework. Clare Trayner, 23, was a geography student at Royal Holloway who was accused of this for me, cheating after anti-plagiarism software flagged up her essay. Everyone was emailed to collect their essay, but mine was held back. I was then told to attend a formal meeting as I had been caught committing plagiarism. I knew I hadn't cheated but I wasn't clear on what the problem was.

I was told one paragraph had been flagged up as resembling the content on vending an internet site. Eventually I was found guilty of plagiarism but as it was my first time I would be only marked down by Sparta: and Superstructure, 10 per cent on vending machine business that module. Rivers Speech! My mark for the module went from a high 2:1 to a 2:2. Vending Machine Business! Interviews by Tabby Kinder. We use cookies to enhance your visit to about Sparta: Structure, and Superstructure, our site and to bring you advertisements that might interest you. Read our Privacy and Cookie Policies to find out more. We've noticed that you are using an vending ad blocker. Provincial! Advertising helps fund our journalism and vending machine business, keep it truly independent. It helps to provincial autonomy in pakistan, build our international editorial team, from war correspondents to investigative reporters, commentators to critics.

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